blonde poker forum

STAGE ONE

£250 MTT Live

4 tables are left, 18 are paid

blinds are 600-1200/50 on a 45 minute clock. 10,000 starting chips

An aggressive player opens in the cut off for 3,200. Talented aggressive. He has been pummelling Hero's big blind, and has amassed a stack of 35,000 showing few hands. Definitely capable of creative bluffs, definitely going to apply pressure down the streets. An experienced chip-getter. Average stack is low 20,000s from memory

Folded to Hero in the BB with  Aspades 6s. Hero is of course possessed of a solid image. Played comparatively few hands but has achieved a stack of 32,000 from AA v KK and set v overpair, both of course shown. No steals/moves have been discovered.

At some stage Hero is going to have to stand up to Villain especially if the situation persists down to bubble dynamics.

Whilst there is no short term imperative to play back now, one might argue it is better to do so before to do so means putting one's whole stack on the line.

Anyway, all options are open to us here

What would be your line and why?

a) Fold

b) Call

b) Re-raise

raise>fold>call

Agree with this, time to use your image to your advantage!...but prefer you perhaps wait another round or two as opposed to flat calling with a speculative hand oop.

this, 7400 is enough to get a decent lag to fold. Given he will never 4b bluff you, its about saving chips when he does have a hand imo.

I have a bit of a problem in these situations too, my main concern is that he will come over the top when I raise like this.  Should he not fold and come back at me, I take it we have to lay down the hand now?

At some stage Hero is going to have to stand up to Villain especially if the situation persists

For sure. But I don't think this is the time. I would prefer to use my solid image to raise 3,200 on the button in 2 hands time than lose my patience and play back here.

dont overrrate opponents, we can hurt him as much as he can hurt us. If hes accumulating nicely playing smallball, he wont run some fancy 4b bluff v a widely regarded as rock-like opponent. flex that image.
yeah its a 3b/fold. We are risking 7400 to win like 5.5kish, so bet has to win like 66% of the time to make profit and im pretty sure its a little higher than that in success rate, he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Thanks


Thanks

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Good reasoning imo

Praise from the Flush man! So happy a little bit of wee came out.

lol i am on raging tilt as well so must be good!

Nah, it's not possible the reasoning is flawed :)

Raising isn't a bad play. I prefer folding. Villain can be trapped cos he bets aggressively through the streets so ideally you want to play him with strength and allow him to do just that. That way you take a lot of his chips. It is the best strat vs his aggression and chip power at this time imo. Alternatively you can raise and win his one bet if he folds. It's risky cos you put yourself in a pretty horrible position vs an aggro villain if he calls/raises. So you're really banking on villain not making a mistake and calling, and I don't think you need to do that with the chips you have. There are enough factors to suggest villain may stay involved if you raise and tangling vs him here isn't the best way to get his chips imo. Bluffing with a weak hand from a weak position isn't such a wicked poker strat imo. And the foundation for it is Tighty is tight so he will fold. Opening vs shorter stacks with position instead and wait for this villain imo, there's no need to curb his aggression for one bet when you can play his stack with strength. Anyway, you can always raise next round if nothing else crops up, it's not like this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty.

I never said Tighty abs had to raise here as passing isn't terrible but I think raise>>fold here, esp for someone like Tighty who can really exploit his image in spots like this one.

Smart aggro player who has been active has raised the cutoff in an unopened pot. His range is huge here and we should be exploiting this. The fact that Tighty is Tighty means I doubt the guy really likes 99/AQ type hands here anymore so our move also works when he does have strong hands.

When you say 'you're banking on villain not making a mistake and calling' you're quite correct. Based on Tighty's info we definitely don't consider that a smart aggro player is going to MAKE A MISTAKE and call here and hence our move works a really high % of the time imo.

I don't think we can use the justification that we can just fold and raise other pots when we have a good situation here to increase our stack by 25%. This also doesn't stop Tighty raising his button and in the upcoming rounds too.

So showing uncharacteristic impatience, borne of wanting to make a stand earlier rather than later and to benefit from my image of course thinking he'll pass anything but the big hands, this happens

STAGE 2

I re-raise to 8,000

After a quizzical dwell in which it seems all options are open to him, looking slightly uncomfortable, villain flats.

(Mantis, where were you when I needed you?!?)

flop

 Ahrt 4h Qs

Pot is just under 17,000

Hero has 24,000

Villain has 27,000

What now?

a) Bet

b) Push

c) Check to call

d) Check to check raise all in

e) Check to fold

I think check to raise all-in

It's possible you'll run into AQ, maybe AJs, but you have to assume he shoves AK pf, and lays down AT or worse. Even if he has something like ATs, you might get him to lay it down...

He's either calling you cos he has a big hand, or to try and take it off you later. Therefore he's likely to bet.

We're ahead of any pair (except AA, but with 2 aces out that's unlikely...he probs ships QQ pf and probs passes 44 cos he doesn't have set value?), and any speculative hand he might have called with. It's not too risky to give him a free card, although obv a heart wouldn't be too pretty.

I misread your initial post thinking we only had c.20k at the start of the hand hence why I said this would help us increase our stack by 25%. I still think the reraise is good here though.

As James said I'm probably checking to move in but AA, KK and QQ are definitely in his range for flatting here though we want to hope it's something like KK, JJ or 10,10 rather than the set.

If he checks behind then I think we must obviously bet the turn so as to not give any more free cards but against a rocklike player who has reraised me pre if i'm villain I am likely taking a stab at this on the flop in the hope that you are laying down hands such as KK, JJ, 1010 and 99 as the ace is likely to help him take you off your hand when you have a big pair.

Check raising also allows him to fold when he has AJ as our line looks super strong.

d all day long. nice long dwell to try and get him to get you off kings.......

actually, tiiiiny lead looks perfect. obv ur allin now btw if he shoves.

I lead call here for about 8k

borne of wanting to make a stand earlier rather than later and to benefit from my image of course

Why is it necessary to make a stand? The chip average is 20k and you have 32k. You are tootling along nicely so can enter pots when conditions suit you to do so. If you raise and villain calls the only advantage you have in the pot is image. If you want to use your image currency vs this guy why not raise him when you're not in the blinds? Now you have position + image as allies if you play a pot vs him. Or if you had villain well out-chipped raise cos then you have chip power + image if you play a pot vs him. Here you're playing a pot vs big aggressive chips without anything in your favour bar image, and you put yourself there cos you wanna make a stand!! The problems with your chosen raising hand are highlighted with actually hitting the flop and the size of the pot vs your stack. You are officially married to this hand vs aggro oppo. But is crossing our fingers he doesn't have an Ace in this spot the best poker we can play 32k vs this villain?

FWIW I think leading out here to induce business vs hands you beat is a funky and inconsistent strat. Not 1 second ago we want to raise with the A-6 based entirely on the fact we're sure our super-tight rock image will get all kinds of respect from villain. Now a second later we abandon that and do a 180 cos we're now sure villain isn't going to give our bet any respect and will come spazzing over the top with no Ace. That's just plain crazy. You raised with A-6 cos your bets carry huge weight right? So if you lead the flop that bet's gonna carry huge weight right?

Errr he called so obv doesn't think our bets carry much weight, he thinks we might be light, in which case the best line is to act light, so bet.

Errr why does he think that? He can give Tighty's bets respect but still call anyway. If Tighty has a tight image and villain is talented it's safe to say he's gonna give Tighty's raise respect. Course he is. But he can still call with 9-9 hoping he's vs A-K/A-Q or get cocky with suited connectors. Then when Tighty fires at the pot he will have to respect the bet. If he doesn't respect it why would you raise with A-6?

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

nice of you to pop in Lloyd, have you factored in heros image? His 4b shoving range has us utterly fked imo, its probs JJ+AK+. If hes decent (as op described) and calls, it will only be with AA/KK which hes never folding post.

Yeah, that sounds well hard. The strat is ill-thought out and that but it sounds hard. Well done.

So you're open shoving Th Jh Qh flop?

You're shoving 6c 6d Ts?

Surely some thought must be put into the flop?

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 Ahrt 4h Qs 6c

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?

He has a mid/high PP that won't commit unless he hits a set, unless he thinks we have air which is why leading the flop is pretty much the only way to get paid!

Unless he's already hit his set!   :D

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  56,506,032  games     0.062 secs   911,387,612  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    70.676%     69.78%    00.89%          39431772       504382.50   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1:    29.324%     28.43%    00.89%          16065495       504382.50   { As6s }


Sure, getting it in pre is going to be a mistake, but it's never a huge mistake once you have re - raised because you'll be getting 2 : 1 for the rest. I'd say he should rarely ever flatcall 10k, and agree that if he is doing it it's with the boots or KK. But then, it's a live tournament and people fold too much - I've seen people make hero folds where they most definitely shouldn't on flops before.

The whole point is that you have to re - raise him to begin with. And you are just slightly over a stacksize where you would be 3 - bet shoving. So, you should just play it in a way where the money goes in slightly delayed given the effective stacks as they are.

Yes, sounding 'hard' was clearly what I was aiming for. After all, I live for the adulation and adoration of idiots like yourself.

Yeah well i'm seeing this hand very differently to you James. I really don't think Tighty leading would represent air considering his image. And I really don't think villain checking behind tells us he has a mid/high pair either. I think this type of player would bet 9-9 vs Tighty when you look at how things are set up. Nah, I don't like the aggressive talented player wont bet unless he hits a set theory really. I think he checks the flop cos he's hit it and would bet if he hadn't. I would deffo check an A-J type hand behind here.

Yeah, well I was only debating the merits and demerits of the strat.

It's crazy that Lloyd, who along with Flushy is probably the most valued contributor to PHA makes a rare post and you accuse him of trying to sound "hard".

Both Mantis and Lloyd are valued contributors. So is everyone else's contribution, valued.

Lets debate the relative incompetence of myself (or anyone's view on any PHA thread)  without name calling to anyone please!

how? he doesn't post for months and months

Obviously I'd rather he posted more, when he does post I usually learn something, same goes for most of flushy's posts.

???

but not Mantis's?

Mantis analyses specific tournament situations very well but it's rarely stuff that I didn't already know. Most of the improvments I've made as a poker player have come initially from playing against and discussing situations with Alex M, Andy Ward's blog and more recently from Flushy and Lloyd on PHA.

Meh agreed to a point if he is quite bad, but this guy is good, i don't see him deciding to bet his 99 here too often unless he decides to put Tighty on KK-JJ-TT and only those hands and thinks Tighty will fold.

My default line in these spots was always to check the flop but it never got me any action unless the guy turned a better hand, now i just lead in these spots and hope they make a move putting me on KK given most people check AA and QQ in these spots.