Multistage MTT hand analysis

[GreekStein]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Nah, it's not possible the reasoning is flawed

Raising isn't a bad play. I prefer folding. Villain can be trapped cos he bets aggressively through the streets so ideally you want to play him with strength and allow him to do just that. That way you take a lot of his chips. It is the best strat vs his aggression and chip power at this time imo. Alternatively you can raise and win his one bet if he folds. It's risky cos you put yourself in a pretty horrible position vs an aggro villain if he calls/raises. So you're really banking on villain not making a mistake and calling, and I don't think you need to do that with the chips you have. There are enough factors to suggest villain may stay involved if you raise and tangling vs him here isn't the best way to get his chips imo. Bluffing with a weak hand from a weak position isn't such a wicked poker strat imo. And the foundation for it is Tighty is tight so he will fold. Opening vs shorter stacks with position instead and wait for this villain imo, there's no need to curb his aggression for one bet when you can play his stack with strength. Anyway, you can always raise next round if nothing else crops up, it's not like this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty.

I never said Tighty abs had to raise here as passing isn't terrible but I think raise>>fold here, esp for someone like Tighty who can really exploit his image in spots like this one.

Smart aggro player who has been active has raised the cutoff in an unopened pot. His range is huge here and we should be exploiting this. The fact that Tighty is Tighty means I doubt the guy really likes 99/AQ type hands here anymore so our move also works when he does have strong hands.

When you say 'you're banking on villain not making a mistake and calling' you're quite correct. Based on Tighty's info we definitely don't consider that a smart aggro player is going to MAKE A MISTAKE and call here and hence our move works a really high % of the time imo.

I don't think we can use the justification that we can just fold and raise other pots when we have a good situation here to increase our stack by 25%. This also doesn't stop Tighty raising his button and in the upcoming rounds too.

[TightEnd]

So showing uncharacteristic impatience, borne of wanting to make a stand earlier rather than later and to benefit from my image of course thinking he'll pass anything but the big hands, this happens

STAGE 2

I re-raise to 8,000

After a quizzical dwell in which it seems all options are open to him, looking slightly uncomfortable, villain flats.

(Mantis, where were you when I needed you?!?)

flop

 

Pot is just under 17,000

Hero has 24,000

Villain has 27,000

What now?

a) Bet

b) Push

c) Check to call

d) Check to check raise all in

e) Check to fold

[MC]

I think check to raise all-in

It's possible you'll run into AQ, maybe AJs, but you have to assume he shoves AK pf, and lays down AT or worse. Even if he has something like ATs, you might get him to lay it down...

He's either calling you cos he has a big hand, or to try and take it off you later. Therefore he's likely to bet.

We're ahead of any pair (except AA, but with 2 aces out that's unlikely...he probs ships QQ pf and probs passes 44 cos he doesn't have set value?), and any speculative hand he might have called with. It's not too risky to give him a free card, although obv a heart wouldn't be too pretty.

[GreekStein]

I misread your initial post thinking we only had c.20k at the start of the hand hence why I said this would help us increase our stack by 25%. I still think the reraise is good here though.

As James said I'm probably checking to move in but AA, KK and QQ are definitely in his range for flatting here though we want to hope it's something like KK, JJ or 10,10 rather than the set.

If he checks behind then I think we must obviously bet the turn so as to not give any more free cards but against a rocklike player who has reraised me pre if i'm villain I am likely taking a stab at this on the flop in the hope that you are laying down hands such as KK, JJ, 1010 and 99 as the ace is likely to help him take you off your hand when you have a big pair.

Check raising also allows him to fold when he has AJ as our line looks super strong.

[AlexMartin]

d all day long. nice long dwell to try and get him to get you off kings.......

actually, tiiiiny lead looks perfect. obv ur allin now btw if he shoves.

[Royal Flush]

I lead call here for about 8k

[MANTIS01]

borne of wanting to make a stand earlier rather than later and to benefit from my image of course

Why is it necessary to make a stand? The chip average is 20k and you have 32k. You are tootling along nicely so can enter pots when conditions suit you to do so. If you raise and villain calls the only advantage you have in the pot is image. If you want to use your image currency vs this guy why not raise him when you're not in the blinds? Now you have position + image as allies if you play a pot vs him. Or if you had villain well out-chipped raise cos then you have chip power + image if you play a pot vs him. Here you're playing a pot vs big aggressive chips without anything in your favour bar image, and you put yourself there cos you wanna make a stand!! The problems with your chosen raising hand are highlighted with actually hitting the flop and the size of the pot vs your stack. You are officially married to this hand vs aggro oppo. But is crossing our fingers he doesn't have an Ace in this spot the best poker we can play 32k vs this villain?

[MANTIS01]

FWIW I think leading out here to induce business vs hands you beat is a funky and inconsistent strat. Not 1 second ago we want to raise with the A-6 based entirely on the fact we're sure our super-tight rock image will get all kinds of respect from villain. Now a second later we abandon that and do a 180 cos we're now sure villain isn't going to give our bet any respect and will come spazzing over the top with no Ace. That's just plain crazy. You raised with A-6 cos your bets carry huge weight right? So if you lead the flop that bet's gonna carry huge weight right?

[Royal Flush]

FWIW I think leading out here to induce business vs hands you beat is a funky and inconsistent strat. Not 1 second ago we want to raise with the A-6 based entirely on the fact we're sure our super-tight rock image will get all kinds of respect from villain. Now a second later we abandon that and do a 180 cos we're now sure villain isn't going to give our bet any respect and will come spazzing over the top with no Ace. That's just plain crazy. You raised with A-6 cos your bets carry huge weight right? So if you lead the flop that bet's gonna carry huge weight right?

Errr he called so obv doesn't think our bets carry much weight, he thinks we might be light, in which case the best line is to act light, so bet.

[MANTIS01]

FWIW I think leading out here to induce business vs hands you beat is a funky and inconsistent strat. Not 1 second ago we want to raise with the A-6 based entirely on the fact we're sure our super-tight rock image will get all kinds of respect from villain. Now a second later we abandon that and do a 180 cos we're now sure villain isn't going to give our bet any respect and will come spazzing over the top with no Ace. That's just plain crazy. You raised with A-6 cos your bets carry huge weight right? So if you lead the flop that bet's gonna carry huge weight right?

Errr he called so obv doesn't think our bets carry much weight, he thinks we might be light, in which case the best line is to act light, so bet.

Errr why does he think that? He can give Tighty's bets respect but still call anyway. If Tighty has a tight image and villain is talented it's safe to say he's gonna give Tighty's raise respect. Course he is. But he can still call with 9-9 hoping he's vs A-K/A-Q or get cocky with suited connectors. Then when Tighty fires at the pot he will have to respect the bet. If he doesn't respect it why would you raise with A-6?

[LuckyLloyd]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

[AlexMartin]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

nice of you to pop in Lloyd, have you factored in heros image? His 4b shoving range has us utterly fked imo, its probs JJ+AK+. If hes decent (as op described) and calls, it will only be with AA/KK which hes never folding post.

[MANTIS01]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

Yeah, that sounds well hard. The strat is ill-thought out and that but it sounds hard. Well done.

[MC]

- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

So you're open shoving flop?

You're shoving ?

Surely some thought must be put into the flop?

[TightEnd]

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?