Multistage MTT hand analysis

[TightEnd]

STAGE ONE

£250 MTT Live

4 tables are left, 18 are paid

blinds are 600-1200/50 on a 45 minute clock. 10,000 starting chips

An aggressive player opens in the cut off for 3,200. Talented aggressive. He has been pummelling Hero's big blind, and has amassed a stack of 35,000 showing few hands. Definitely capable of creative bluffs, definitely going to apply pressure down the streets. An experienced chip-getter. Average stack is low 20,000s from memory

Folded to Hero in the BB with  . Hero is of course possessed of a solid image. Played comparatively few hands but has achieved a stack of 32,000 from AA v KK and set v overpair, both of course shown. No steals/moves have been discovered.

At some stage Hero is going to have to stand up to Villain especially if the situation persists down to bubble dynamics.

Whilst there is no short term imperative to play back now, one might argue it is better to do so before to do so means putting one's whole stack on the line.

Anyway, all options are open to us here

What would be your line and why?

a) Fold

b) Call

b) Re-raise

[GreekStein]

raise>fold>call

[MC]

raise>fold>call

Agree with this, time to use your image to your advantage!...but prefer you perhaps wait another round or two as opposed to flat calling with a speculative hand oop.

[AlexMartin]

raise>fold>call

this, 7400 is enough to get a decent lag to fold. Given he will never 4b bluff you, its about saving chips when he does have a hand imo.

[Graham C]

raise>fold>call

this, 7400 is enough to get a decent lag to fold. Given he will never 4b bluff you, its about saving chips when he does have a hand imo.

I have a bit of a problem in these situations too, my main concern is that he will come over the top when I raise like this.  Should he not fold and come back at me, I take it we have to lay down the hand now?

[MANTIS01]

At some stage Hero is going to have to stand up to Villain especially if the situation persists

For sure. But I don't think this is the time. I would prefer to use my solid image to raise 3,200 on the button in 2 hands time than lose my patience and play back here.

[AlexMartin]

raise>fold>call

this, 7400 is enough to get a decent lag to fold. Given he will never 4b bluff you, its about saving chips when he does have a hand imo.

I have a bit of a problem in these situations too, my main concern is that he will come over the top when I raise like this.  Should he not fold and come back at me, I take it we have to lay down the hand now?

dont overrrate opponents, we can hurt him as much as he can hurt us. If hes accumulating nicely playing smallball, he wont run some fancy 4b bluff v a widely regarded as rock-like opponent. flex that image.
yeah its a 3b/fold. We are risking 7400 to win like 5.5kish, so bet has to win like 66% of the time to make profit and im pretty sure its a little higher than that in success rate, he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

[MANTIS01]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

[TightEnd]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

[Graham C]

what Alex said

Thanks

what Mantis said

Thanks

[GreekStein]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

[Royal Flush]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Good reasoning imo

[GreekStein]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Good reasoning imo

Praise from the Flush man! So happy a little bit of wee came out.

[Royal Flush]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Good reasoning imo

Praise from the Flush man! So happy a little bit of wee came out.

lol i am on raging tilt as well so must be good!

[MANTIS01]

he should only continue with the very top of a super wide co opening range.

Ya. That's what he should do. However, he will be expecting Tighty to play back at him at some point, he will have position in the hand, he's had good success pressuring this oppo, he has forward momentum and chips, he can play through the streets. There's a lot of stuff there to suggest he will call the raise imo, even if he shouldn't. The problem is post flop and oop our hand sucks and it's gonna be difficult to play vs this guy. Best scenario is we miss and successfully bluff imo. So really in effect we're pinning all our hopes on this pre-flop raise getting through. If it doesn't get through we can bet the guy will pressure us further and continue winning the battle. Much prefer to raise with suited connectors here or just let it go and wait for an opportunity vs this guy with more scope than this one. There's weaker players at the table to pull moves on and you have time to wait & trap villain properly.

I think this reasoning is flawed.

I disgaree firstly with the fact that he is expecting Tighty to play back at him. He thinks Tighty is a rock who won't play back without a hand. We can therefore exploit this here with our hand.

Tighty said he was a decent aggro player so I don't think he's flatting a raise from Hero unless he has a monster and the call is to trap. I don't think he will flat us when he expects Tighty's raise to probably mean 99+

Nah, it's not possible the reasoning is flawed

Raising isn't a bad play. I prefer folding. Villain can be trapped cos he bets aggressively through the streets so ideally you want to play him with strength and allow him to do just that. That way you take a lot of his chips. It is the best strat vs his aggression and chip power at this time imo. Alternatively you can raise and win his one bet if he folds. It's risky cos you put yourself in a pretty horrible position vs an aggro villain if he calls/raises. So you're really banking on villain not making a mistake and calling, and I don't think you need to do that with the chips you have. There are enough factors to suggest villain may stay involved if you raise and tangling vs him here isn't the best way to get his chips imo. Bluffing with a weak hand from a weak position isn't such a wicked poker strat imo. And the foundation for it is Tighty is tight so he will fold. Opening vs shorter stacks with position instead and wait for this villain imo, there's no need to curb his aggression for one bet when you can play his stack with strength. Anyway, you can always raise next round if nothing else crops up, it's not like this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty.