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Title: double or nothing bubble Post by: paulhouk03 on January 17, 2010, 01:45:27 PM PokerStars Game #38293639202: Tournament #233100627, $50+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2010/01/17 8:33:32 ET
Table '233100627 1' 10-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: I LIKE P0KER (3150 in chips) Seat 4: Daizzee (1690 in chips) Seat 6: S41_B (740 in chips) Seat 7: jp_montemps (325 in chips) Seat 8: BOOKER T (3190 in chips) Seat 10: Mezzetin (5905 in chips) I LIKE P0KER: posts the ante 30 Daizzee: posts the ante 30 S41_B: posts the ante 30 jp_montemps: posts the ante 30 BOOKER T: posts the ante 30 Mezzetin: posts the ante 30 jp_montemps: posts small blind 150 BOOKER T: posts big blind 300 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to S41_B [9s 9h] shove or fold and pray? Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 01:49:15 PM Ugh pretty sick spot. I think I fold as we have no fold equity and aren't first to blind out.
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Blatch on January 17, 2010, 02:13:23 PM Ugh pretty sick spot. I think I fold as we have no fold equity and aren't first to blind out. +1 Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 05:06:05 PM is a flat call super bad?
id be happy to get my money in against both villains in this spot - ie we flat, he ships - bb calls (or even shoves, and we get em in too. if we flat and he folds - we can get em in on a friendly flop its really tricky - lets assume we fold and he folds - then the blinds go up - you are forced to pay 600 + antes the next orbit - and your are bvb v's shorty with ATC I dont think a shove or flat call are bad in this spot - given the absolute specifics of the hand and the fact he isnt going to blind away this orbit Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: GreekStein on January 17, 2010, 05:08:32 PM I'm never flatting.
Its a pass Pauly Ho. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 05:15:41 PM Flatting is truly awful, the shortie always fold unless he kk+ (while chuckling to himself that the games will always be beatable when people do crap like this). Then ever folding pre or post flop is so comedy bad it is unreal. As we have just put in about half our stack to fold and now the next person to bubble as the blinds hit us before the shortie.
With 725 the blinds can go through us and swallow up shortie first, if we flat and then pass the blind swallow us first. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: paulhouk03 on January 17, 2010, 05:29:27 PM i did pass but l didnt cash lol
the shorty doubled up and if i shoved i woulda hit trips on the flop and won. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: George2Loose on January 17, 2010, 05:31:26 PM i did pass but l didnt cash lol the shorty doubled up and if i shoved i woulda hit trips on the flop and won. No you wouldn't have Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: GreekStein on January 17, 2010, 05:39:30 PM i did pass but l didnt cash lol the shorty doubled up and if i shoved i woulda hit trips on the flop and won. No you wouldn't have He might have Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: NigDawG on January 17, 2010, 05:56:46 PM on bubble pretty std fold pre imo. how the f u get this short?!
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 05:58:34 PM on bubble pretty std fold pre imo. how the f u get this short?! Pretty standard to get this short in DON's and end up in a folding war. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: TightEnd on January 17, 2010, 06:00:09 PM Play a lot of these, folding is super-normal here
2+2 has a whole stragey forum for them, try there too Flatting is horrendous, the whole point is the shortstack blinds out before you do, flatting ruins this and assuming you don't win the pot it means you go through the blinds next and exit If you had 1500 then you have some fold equity against the bb, but with 725 you have to fold and most of the time 325 stack will go out Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: paulhouk03 on January 17, 2010, 06:04:34 PM on bubble pretty std fold pre imo. how the f u get this short?! i had 2200raised short pushed he had 1500 i had ak he had kq i lose Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: pokerfan on January 17, 2010, 06:08:03 PM If you need to ask this question i dont think the $50 dons are the future for you.
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 06:29:41 PM this is def not a clear a fold as you guys are making out
he has to pay A MINIMUM of 7x 30 antes then best case lets say the blinds only go up on our BB so we have 210 +400 then the next hand we are all in in the sb against mr shorty in the BB with atc and probably the 2 big stacks im afraid with all the above all your def folding isnt so clear cut furthermore - if the blinds go up the next hand - it gets even closer to us busting first Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: paulhouk03 on January 17, 2010, 06:32:37 PM If you need to ask this question i dont think the $50 dons are the future for you. just to be certain =D Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 06:36:50 PM this is def not a clear a fold as you guys are making out he has to pay A MINIMUM of 7x 30 antes then best case lets say the blinds only go up on our BB so we have 210 +400 then the next hand we are all in in the sb against mr shorty in the BB with atc and probably the 2 big stacks im afraid with all the above all your def folding isnt so clear cut furthermore - if the blinds go up the next hand - it gets even closer to us busting first Have you got some bet on this weekend with someone, who can make the worst set of posts this weekend? If so, congrats you are deffo going to ship the prop. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 06:42:28 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 06:53:42 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 06:59:00 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. talk me thru your folding theory pls work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40 Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 07:05:01 PM right - rather than talk out loud ive done the maths
assuming my point above We pay 3 x 30 1x40 Plus 400 BB 1x40 plus 200 sb this = 770 - our stack is less than this - we are all in (going with your line that we fold our BB to win) shorty pays 3x30 2x40 + remainder all in in BB we are both all in pre flop Everyone on the table can see we are btoh all in and there are 3 players with 3k + who will happily put in 400 to knock one of us out I appreciate - we diont need to win the hand - just not lose - but i dont think that folding 99 in that crytsal clear in this instance Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 07:12:27 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. talk me thru your folding theory pls work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40 Where does it say the blinds go up? Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand. If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns. In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op. Therefore this is a super clear fold. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 07:15:26 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. talk me thru your folding theory pls work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40 Where does it say the blinds go up? Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand. If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns. In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op. Therefore this is a super clear fold. lol Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 12,585,434,400 games 8.548 secs 1,472,325,035 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 72.057% 71.67% 00.39% 9019433616 49284558.00 { 99 } Hand 1: 27.943% 27.55% 00.39% 3467431668 49284558.00 { random } --- stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call [ ] super clear fold Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 07:31:05 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. talk me thru your folding theory pls work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40 Where does it say the blinds go up? Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand. If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns. In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op. Therefore this is a super clear fold. lol Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 12,585,434,400 games 8.548 secs 1,472,325,035 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 72.057% 71.67% 00.39% 9019433616 49284558.00 { 99 } Hand 1: 27.943% 27.55% 00.39% 3467431668 49284558.00 { random } --- stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call [ ] super clear fold Ok i give you I thought 99 played better against a random range than I thought. Still even if we win the hand we still bubble a certain % of the time, which has to be taken off the 72%. Also the small % of the time the shortie wakes up with a monster, decreases out % win by pushing. It is still a clear fold for me and the 70-75% as the pot will go more than 3 way very often as you will get a lot of implicit collusion in this spot and assuming the blinds actually go up. As if they don't we can survive another orbit. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 07:34:53 PM both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post. talk me thru your folding theory pls work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40 Where does it say the blinds go up? Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand. If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns. In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op. Therefore this is a super clear fold. lol Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 12,585,434,400 games 8.548 secs 1,472,325,035 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 72.057% 71.67% 00.39% 9019433616 49284558.00 { 99 } Hand 1: 27.943% 27.55% 00.39% 3467431668 49284558.00 { random } --- stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call [ ] super clear fold Ok i give you I thought 99 played better against a random range than I thought. Still even if we win the hand we still bubble a certain % of the time, which has to be taken off the 72%. Also the small % of the time the shortie wakes up with a monster, decreases out % win by pushing. It is still a clear fold for me and the 70-75% as the pot will go more than 3 way very often as you will get a lot of implicit collusion in this spot and assuming the blinds actually go up. As if they don't we can survive another orbit. [ ] super clear fold Longy the point is, it isnt that clear - yes obv sometimes we win - sometimes we lose - who knows we could fold and someone could spazz - but it just isnt that bad getting them in here Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 07:49:48 PM We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands.
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 07:55:02 PM We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands. its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold - so im not sure why you are banging on about it. Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Girgy85 on January 17, 2010, 08:06:56 PM Am i the only one with one hand in the air whilst clicking the all in button?
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: Longy on January 17, 2010, 08:09:52 PM We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands. its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold - so im not sure why you are banging on about it. Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that Firstly we are both discussing this so if I am banging about it, you certainly are in fact you have used the words super clear fold in your last 4/5 posts. Our % chance of cashing is never greater than 72% as we bubble 28% of the time if we shove and taking into account that the least % chance in the worst case scenario is 70% by folding. Basically so shoving> folding is rarely ever true, due to the fact that the blinds don't go up 100% of the time. Anyway I will desist from banging on now as I am watching the NFL and I am bored with this now. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 17, 2010, 08:13:25 PM We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands. its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold - so im not sure why you are banging on about it. Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that Firstly we are both discussing this so if I am banging about it, you certainly are in fact you have used the words super clear fold in your last 4/5 posts. Our % chance of cashing is never greater than 72% as we bubble 28% of the time if we shove and taking into account that the least % chance in the worst case scenario is 70% by folding. Basically so shoving> folding is rarely ever true, due to the fact that the blinds don't go up 100% of the time. Anyway I will desist from banging on now as I am watching the NFL and I am bored with this now. i have never once said that shoving is 100% the right thing to do you did insist that folding was the far superior play / thread Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: vegaslover on January 18, 2010, 01:16:51 AM It's a clear fold to me, would be folding even bigger too. You need to be playing tighter than ever in these
Never, ever flatting in this. Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: EvilPie on January 19, 2010, 08:49:06 AM Perhaps I'm crap at DoN's but I've got one hand in the air celebrating my first win of the day here.
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: paulhouk03 on January 19, 2010, 03:41:47 PM It's a clear fold to me, would be folding even bigger too. You need to be playing tighter than ever in these Never, ever flatting in this. whats ur shoving range here? Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: SupaMonkey on January 19, 2010, 04:35:36 PM I have to resist the urge to wind up Longy, but i fold. This scenario is why sklansky writes books.
Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: vegaslover on January 19, 2010, 05:55:49 PM It's a clear fold to me, would be folding even bigger too. You need to be playing tighter than ever in these Never, ever flatting in this. whats ur shoving range here? Title: Re: double or nothing bubble Post by: outragous76 on January 19, 2010, 05:57:20 PM It's a clear fold to me, would be folding even bigger too. You need to be playing tighter than ever in these Never, ever flatting in this. whats ur shoving range here? i havent got stove on this PC but im pretty sure thats bad |