double or nothing bubble

[paulhouk03]

If you need to ask this question i dont think the $50 dons are the future for you.

just to be certain =D

[Longy]

this is def not a clear a fold as you guys are making out

he has to pay A MINIMUM of 7x 30 antes

then best case lets say the blinds only go up on our BB

so we have 210 +400

then the next hand we are all in in the sb against mr shorty in the BB with atc and probably the 2 big stacks

im afraid with all the above all your def folding isnt so clear cut

furthermore - if the blinds go up the next hand - it gets even closer to us busting first

Have you got some bet on this weekend with someone, who can make the worst set of posts this weekend?

If so, congrats you are deffo going to ship the prop.

[outragous76]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

[Longy]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

[outragous76]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

talk me thru your folding theory pls

work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40

[outragous76]

right -  rather than talk out loud ive done the maths

assuming my point above

We pay

3 x 30
1x40 Plus 400 BB
1x40 plus 200 sb

this = 770 - our stack is less than this - we are all in (going with your line that we fold our BB to win)

shorty pays

3x30
2x40 + remainder all in in BB

we are both all in pre flop

Everyone on the table can see we are btoh all in and there are 3 players with 3k + who will happily put in 400 to knock one of us out

I appreciate - we diont need to win the hand - just not lose - but i dont think that folding 99 in that crytsal clear in this instance

[Longy]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

talk me thru your folding theory pls

work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40

Where does it say the blinds go up?

Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand.

If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns.

In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op.

Therefore this is a super clear fold.

[outragous76]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

talk me thru your folding theory pls

work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40

Where does it say the blinds go up?

Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand.

If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns.

In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op.

Therefore this is a super clear fold.

lol

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  12,585,434,400  games     8.548 secs     1,472,325,035  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    72.057%     71.67%    00.39%        9019433616     49284558.00   { 99 }
Hand 1:    27.943%     27.55%    00.39%        3467431668     49284558.00   { random }


---

stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call

[  ] super clear fold

[Longy]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

talk me thru your folding theory pls

work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40

Where does it say the blinds go up?

Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand.

If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns.

In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op.

Therefore this is a super clear fold.

lol

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  12,585,434,400  games     8.548 secs     1,472,325,035  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    72.057%     71.67%    00.39%        9019433616     49284558.00   { 99 }
Hand 1:    27.943%     27.55%    00.39%        3467431668     49284558.00   { random }


---

stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call

[  ] super clear fold

Ok i give you I thought 99 played better against a random range than I thought. Still even if we win the hand we still bubble a certain % of the time, which has to be taken off the 72%. Also the small % of the time the shortie wakes up with a monster, decreases out % win by pushing.

It is still a clear fold for me and the 70-75% as the pot will go more than 3 way very often as you will get a lot of implicit collusion in this spot and assuming the blinds actually go up. As if they don't we can survive another orbit.

[outragous76]

both players are going to be all in on the same hand and prob against 3 others - this is not a super clear fold

Terrible level, first rule of levelling don't contradict yourself in the same post.

talk me thru your folding theory pls

work on blinds going up the hand which we pay our bb to 200 400 40

Where does it say the blinds go up?

Even if they do us being all in when it comes round to our bb with the short is like a dream scenario. As we will have more chips so shortie has to beat at least two people possible more to survive with a random hand. Making him less than approx 33% to survive that hand.

If he does survive we would have to lose the sidepot to bubble, we would scoop the sidepot about 20% of the time. Then shortie would have to survive yet another couple of forced showdowns.

In this scenario I would estimate we cash around 70-75%, which is far greater equity than shoving 99 in the hand in op.

Therefore this is a super clear fold.

lol

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  12,585,434,400  games     8.548 secs     1,472,325,035  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    72.057%     71.67%    00.39%        9019433616     49284558.00   { 99 }
Hand 1:    27.943%     27.55%    00.39%        3467431668     49284558.00   { random }


---

stove gives us 72% equity against the BB ATC call

[  ] super clear fold

Ok i give you I thought 99 played better against a random range than I thought. Still even if we win the hand we still bubble a certain % of the time, which has to be taken off the 72%. Also the small % of the time the shortie wakes up with a monster, decreases out % win by pushing.

It is still a clear fold for me and the 70-75% as the pot will go more than 3 way very often as you will get a lot of implicit collusion in this spot and assuming the blinds actually go up. As if they don't we can survive another orbit.

[  ] super clear fold

Longy the point is, it isnt that clear - yes obv sometimes we win - sometimes we lose - who knows we could fold and someone could spazz - but it just isnt that bad getting them in here

[Longy]

We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands.

[outragous76]

We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands.

its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold  - so im not sure why you are banging on about it.

Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that

[Girgy85]

Am i the only one with one hand in the air whilst clicking the all in button?

[Longy]

We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands.

its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold  - so im not sure why you are banging on about it.

Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that

Firstly we are both discussing this so if I am banging about it, you certainly are in fact you have  used the words super clear fold in your last 4/5 posts.

Our % chance of cashing is never greater than 72% as we bubble 28% of the time if we shove and taking into account that the least % chance in the worst case scenario is 70% by folding. Basically so shoving> folding is rarely ever true, due to the fact that the blinds don't go up 100% of the time.

Anyway I will desist from banging on now as I am watching the NFL and I am bored with this now.

[outragous76]

We can argue semantics about how clear this fold is, but it is a fold and you have not presented any scenario where shoving is actually better. Whereas I can present you with a scenario where folding is a lot bettter, the blinds don't go up in the next 5 hands.

its marginal at best and certainly not a super clear fold  - so im not sure why you are banging on about it.

Shoving and winning puts us in a great spot to cash - so therefore you must be able to prove (much greater than 72%) that folding is the way to go.................... and im pretty certain you cant do that

Firstly we are both discussing this so if I am banging about it, you certainly are in fact you have  used the words super clear fold in your last 4/5 posts.

Our % chance of cashing is never greater than 72% as we bubble 28% of the time if we shove and taking into account that the least % chance in the worst case scenario is 70% by folding. Basically so shoving> folding is rarely ever true, due to the fact that the blinds don't go up 100% of the time.

Anyway I will desist from banging on now as I am watching the NFL and I am bored with this now.

i have never once said that shoving is 100% the right thing to do

you did insist that folding was the far superior play

/ thread