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After last night I just can't see how Cameron is now going to achieve a bigger swing than Maggie coming to power in 1979,to get to the magic 326  (another 117 seats)....so a hung parliament it is I reckon.

Hung parliament was 7/4 the day before the Nick, the king maker, Clegg had his moment in the spotlight. Now its 5/4.

However you can get 5/2 on  "David Cameron (or any other Tory politician) to be Prime Minister in Hung Parliament in 2010" with William Hill.


"The party which has the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern," Clegg said......surely the Tories.

Do the lib dems have any chance whatsoever of getting into power?

only through a hung parliament.......you're got more chance of winning the lottery 2 weeks running, than them achieving an outright victory.

I agree with AndrewT that now is a good time to get on the overall Tory majority line while the country is still drunk on Clegg.

Interesting historical stat is that where the Torys have had a lead in the polls at the start of the election campaign, that lead has always at least doubled by the end of the campaign. This is mostly attributed to them having a much bigger wodge of cash to spend when it counts.

Also, I think media over hype the hung parliament thing coz it's a good talking point/stick to beat people with.

Tory majority imo. Yeah, it might be a hung parliament, but that's why they call it gambling.

Historically there have never been tv debates to influence people so history is somewhat tempered.

Sandy

True

Another factor when looking at old polls is that the polling methods weren't as sophisticated as they are now.

The way the voting works is odd - Labour could end up with the least votes (of the 3 majors) and the most seats.

Also Clegg didn't clarify what he meant by the biggest mandate (i.e. most seats or most votes) so it's not exactly clear who he would support.

 Hung Parliament : around 4/6 this morning.

 Most seats : Tories around 1/4.

Will Hill still 5/2 on Cameron as PM in a hung.

(3/1 if you think Clegg will prop up Brown)

Is there a price on LD/Lab with Brown ousted?

Should either David Cameron or Gordon Brown cease to be leader of their respective party but either party forms a majority or minority Government under any other MP as Prime Minster, this market will be settled as ‘Any Other PM / Any Other Government’. In the event of no Prime Minister or government being appointed after the next general election and before another general election, this market will be declared void. 

 this is 14/1 on betfair

This morning; 2.98 on your Tory overall majority with Betfair.

What's the odds of them all getting on a plane and it crashing (a la the Polish government) - if they're less than the odds of the Euromillions I'll put my £2 on that & pray.

both 9/4 now  :(

Not sure a Tory majority is going to be value anytime soon.  i agree the Clegg thing is probably being overhyped slightly and no doubt the major parties will go for the Liberals now but any swing from tory to LibDems will almost certainly lead to a hung parliament.  I bet the 5/4 on Friday night and it is 4/6 now.  I honestly think 1/4 would be closer to the mark and if we went to the polls with the opinion polls a s they stand now then no overall majority should be 1/20 or so.

Interesting Newsnight blog


Are Lib Dems failing to take advantage of surge?

Michael Crick | 18:48 UK time, Monday, 19 April 2010

Are the Liberal Democrats capable of taking proper advantage of their sudden surge in the polls?

Not if my trip to Bournemouth West today is anything to go by.

Statistically it's number 25 on the Lib Dem target list, and should be an even juicier prospect given that the retiring MP Sir John Butterfill was disgraced in the recent Channel 4 lobbying expose.

Yet the Lib Dems seem to be campaigning as if the seat is sewn up - for the Tories.

The only Lib Dem posters I saw all day were at the agent's house, and at the house which serves as the campaign HQ (which was deserted apart from the owner of the house and her family). And even those posters didn't have the candidate's name.

The Lib Dem agent admitted to me that he couldn't afford to spend up to the full expense limit on his campaign - roughly £9,000. They have been given no extra resources by the Lib Dem high command. Neither Nick Clegg nor Vince Cable has visited the seat recently.

And the agent admitted to me that Bournemouth activists have been urged instead to help Annette Brooke, who is defending the neighbouring seat of Mid Dorset and North Poole.

There was no sense in Bournemouth that the Lib Dem campaign should step up a gear after last Thursday's debate. This is bizarre. On all the polls since Thursday it's a seat the Lib Dems could or should win.

Unless Annette Brooke has been a hopeless MP, and I have no reason to think she has, the Lib Dems should turn the party supertanker round quickly. Her campaign should be switching people, effort and money to Bournemouth West straight away, not the other way round.

My experience in Bournemouth West shows just how short of resources the Lib Dems have been, and until now, short of ambition too.

They have been aiming for far too a narrow range of seats to exploit this surge properly. And many of those are constituencies belonging to sitting MPs, not places where they can make big advances.


I'm thinking a contrarian approach back towards an overall majority might be the bet before the second debate on the chance that Clegg now has high expectations built in and can't surprise positviely from here

Might be worth a little tickle on the Lib Dems in my area.

Its a Labour seat, but its held by Ann Keen (nicknamed Mrs Expenses after buying a Westminster flat with expenses whilst living just 9 miles away from Westminster!.)

She will be very lucky to get re- elected and the Tories are favorites to win.

 HOWEVER you can get 20/1 on the Lib Dems on a few sites..ie Paddy Power (with Tories at 1/5 !!)....whilst you can get Tories at 4/6 on Ladbrokes(only), to lay off the bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/brentford-and-isleworth/winning-party


2005 Result: Brentford & Isleworth
  LAB HOLD 

TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Labour  39.8%
Conservative  30.2%
Liberal Democrat  22.8%
Swing: 6.8% from LAB to CON
IN DETAIL 
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Ann Keen Labour 18,329 39.8 -12.5
Alexander Northcote Conservative 13,918 30.2 +1.1
Andrew Dakers Liberal Democrat 10,477 22.8 +9.3
John Hunt Green 1,652 3.6 +0.6
Phillip Andrews The Community (London Borough of Hounslow) 1,118 2.4 +2.4
Michael Stoneman National Front 523 1.1 +1.1
Majority 4,411 9.6   
Turnout 46,017 54.5 +0.8

these prices have all gone now.................come on Mr Dakers !!

I have had a bet on the Libdems at evs in Birmingham Hall Green with billy hills

Current maj is 5000 to labour but this is a pretty strange seat. The local MP Roger Godsiff has been sending leaflets around like this http://www.thestirrer.co.uk/Documents/godsiff.pdf , he has also failed to attend local hustings. Also some local labour activists have defected to a local independent candidate, for the "respect" party.

There is also a lot of Muslim voters in the constituency, who still feel very strongly about Afghanistan/Iraq etc. The only real concern is that the respect candidate is going to pull in a lot of the disaffected voters from labour instead of straight over to the lib dems.

With the combination of Mr Godsiff truly awful campaigning tactics as well as the national surge of the lib dems, I think evens represents value. Electoral calculus site has 55.1% chance of a lib dem win.

Do you know how Electoral Calculus works out it's percentages?

It gives Libdems 30% chance of taking Aberdeen South (my constituency).
It's a 2 way marignal with Labour currently having a tiny (under 2000) majority over the Libdems.

Thing is, on the ground there's massive amounts of Libdem campaigning going on, and zero from the Torys or Labour. I think they've written it off and are concentrating their resources elsewhere.  

Given the current national polls and the local campaigning, I'd say there was 75%+ chance of a Libdem win here rather than 30%.

The strong transitional model ldo.

Let us define the strong voter threshold α, which we have set at 20%. Let V(i,j) be the vote share for party #j in seat #i at the previous election, and let TO(i) be the turnout in that seat. Set TO to be the total number of votes cast TO = Σk TO(k). The national vote shares V(j) for party #j are

V(j) = Σk TO(k)V(k,j) / TO,

and its strong vote shares are

VS(j) = Σk TO(k) max(V(k,j)-α,0) / TO.

Suppose that the predicted national vote shares for party #j are P(j). Then the predicted national weak and strong vote shares PW(j) and PS(j) are

PW(j) = max( P(j) - VS(j), 0 ), and

PS(j) = min( P(j), VS(j) ).

Then the predicted weak and strong votes in seat #i are given by applying the Transition model to the extended set of parties: Strong-CON, Weak-CON, Strong-LAB, Weak-LAB, etc. All parties, not just the Lib Dems, are handled using the new method. Over this extended party list, we have

   1. the previous national results, VS(j) and VW(j) = V(j) - VS(j).
   2. the predicted national results, PS(j) and PW(j) from above.
   3. the previous seat results, VS(i,j) = max( V(i,j) - α, 0 ), and VW(i,j) = V(i,j) - VS(i,j).

It doesn't take into account local issues so I would research local matters before having a punt.

Can get the libdems at 7/4 for Aberdeen south, shall we get on?

I'll get back to you tomorrow, price looks too good to be true to me so I'll scout out some second and third opinions.

Also had a small bet on the libdems in Colne Valley, at 8/1 with Corals. They are 36.8% chance to win this according to electoral calculus,in general this probs too high looking through the seats today but no way are they about a 10% shot. As they seem to generally over estimate the chance of the underdogs in seats imo.

It is a 3 way marginal with Labour currently holding it

2005 election results- Labour 18108, Con 16541, Lib Dem 12380.

The liberals did hold this seat post world war 2 at various points, so it deffo has some core liberal supporters put that together with the Clegg effect and local voters thinking they stand a chance of winning. I like my 8/1.

Just spoke to my brother about this seat as he votes there and he thought the libdems stood a chance as well. Paddy power as short as 2/1 now!

Vince got a beating on the daily politics show today and there was also a change in tack for the Tories.

Also left their strategy notes in a cab and their ex-chairman is apparently involved in the campaign (he stepped down after his dodgy expenses were exposed).

Things could change around come Thursday.

....and Ken "big beast" Clarke is getting in on the act now....its warming up!!

Everyone gets a beating on the Daily Politics.

Andrew Neil is a bad mutha

Well they had all 3 parties on and he was signalled out. A particularly cutting quote is: "Isn’t the biggest myth of the election your reputation?". Ouch!

Hung is 4/7 generally, after the second debate.
 
William Hill interviewed on Sky tonight, and Randall and Boulton were asking why it isn't 1/10!!??

..........is 4/7 buying money??

I think it is really.....hard to see any other outcome now although the debates do mean that it really isn't over until the debates are finished but I would be 1/6 or so now

5/7 betfair will do for me

I agree; the only thing that is stopping me putting any money on is that I've been proved wrong about 7 times already during this campaign.

Expecting the unexpected

One thing that is probably worth bearing in mind is that the gutter press, especially the Tory gutter press, have not paid much attention to the Liberals before so they will be desperately looking for some dirt on them now to derail their campaign.  If there is anything major on any of their big figures (probably limited to Clegg, Cable and Huhne) then that could put a dent in them but really it is going to be hard to knock the 7-8 points needed off their poll ratings to give the Tories a realistic chance of a majority.  Looks to me that, given the Liberals condition of a coalition will be proportional representation then this might be the last majority govt we see in this country for many years

 4/6 hung at william hill is morning.

 9/4* Cameron in as PM in a hung,(will hill) must be massive now...... as Clegg virtually rules out a deal with Labour this morning on TV and in the press.


*5/4 betfair

Defo a big price, but not so sure Clegg totally ruled out a deal with Labour - more he seemed to rule out a deal with Gordon Brown, which isn't quite the same thing!

Sizeable moves in the UK Election betting market after the 3rd debate. Con's to win majority 2.3 from 2.8, hung parliament 1.8 from 1.6.

if you had a free £100 bet, where would it at this moment?

Still think it's hung, but that is in the price

However the only momentum (however slight) is with Cameron. Can't see Labour bouncing. Clegg has had the debated, don't see where another bounce there is coming from. if offered your bet the value is a Con majority at odds-against

http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=14411

Yes, momentum with Cameron...seemed very chirpy this morning answering questions and signing his  "government pledge".

Sporting index 319-324 spread.....just short of the 326!

I looked at some key marginal info yesterday and it still shows the Tories short by a few % points.

This is going to be close!

Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com is predicting Conservatives 27 short and electoral calculus have them 43 short.

I have not seen any poll having Cons with a clear majority for a few weeks now.

10 -20 short would be excellent for my bets  :)

My worry is a complete colapse of the labour vote over to the lib dems, which let the Tories in for a majority just by "standing still".

You Still can get 9/4 on Cameron as PM in a minority and or 11/8 on a majority.

Who are the conservatives the tories ??

I get confused with all the different names for them :)

....you mean you haven't read The Tamworth Manifesto?? :D


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_Manifesto

LOL,Somehow I've not come across this before

One factor the polls may not factor in is that, on Thursday, a lot of the new LibDem voters might be too daft to remember it's Thursday.

Whatever the polls are averaging for Clegg on Wednesday, I predict the actual LibDem vote will be 3 points less.

Tory majority today is 5/4 best price as far as I can see....HOWEVER, you can get:

Conservative overall majority of 2-50 seats 2/1   with Coral. (if the majority is over 50 I'll pay you myself! :D)

http://smarkets.com/politics/uk/general-election/2010/overall-majority

Interesting article by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com where he tries to build a more robust swingometer than national uniform swing.  He thinks when Labour reach only 28% there's a kind of inflection point where they really start to collapse and each subsequent percentage point loss becomes devastating.  I've backed total Labour seats 150-174 @ 10.5 - think they need something like 26% for this to come in. Also backed Ed Balls to lose his seat at 13/8 with Paddy Power.

Hung Parliament went to 11/10 over the weekend, which given the weekend polls was huge imo.

Today back to 5/6 ish.

Clegg is out with Colin Firth today (Brentford and Isleworth resident)......so lets hope it does some good for my 20/1 on the Lib Dem candidate there  :D

Yes it was actually nearly 5/4 on Betfair...if I hadn't already been massively involved I would have topped up. 

How accurate do people think the markets for each constituency are on betfair?  Is it a good indicator as to how to vote tactically?

In this kind of situation you will find a tory majority, for sure.

Dan best look up the constituency on : http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

maybe...but it does seem very difficult to call.

 Still my gut feeling is the Tories will be short, but will govern as a minority gov with either help from smaller parties, or if need be the lib dems voting with them on the Queens Speech.

Early days but looking good for Cameron in a hung.........

I am loving a lay of the hung parliament at 1.60ish now...the exit polls dont ring true to me....the liberals share seems wrong and I have heard that many good judges thing the tories may have just nicked it.  I am on hung parliament big at 5/4 but have hedged on a 2-50 tory majority at 13/8

yes money came for the tories in between 9 and 10 ....hedged a bit as well,managed to get 2/1 on 2-50

Watching the results all the Labour people are talking about is there is Lib/Lab majority... When did the 2 merge?

Seems odd given the LDs have been voting with the Tories for 5+ years...

In the past people have been ashamed to admit they voted Tory to exit pollsters.

Now I suspect it might be shame to admit a Labour vote.

Also, a high turnout should favour Labour.

I have had a lump on a hung parliament at 4/7.

Really Keith??  I am trying to keep my prices updated in running and at the moment I am effectively each of two a tory majority and No overall majority.  Have biggish position on NOM at 5/4 but am laying anything below 4/6 a Tory majority.  I think in the marginals the swing will be bigger.  Other positions I have taken are Labour under 230.5 seats and Tories under 330.5 seats both at 5/6.  think 326 or so is the right line for Tory seats and about 215 is right for Labour (although the latter is harder to predict)

With all the problems and high turnout, people in cities late at night trying to vote are less like to be Tories imo.

I am swaying as quickly as the betting moves.

I know the third Labour win in Sunderland was by a very popular local MP and the swing there was alot smaller than the other two.

Maybe local issues and personalities are going to be more important than ever before in a general election.

I had managed to bet total Lib Dem seats between 70 and 89 at 7/4 which I thought was a tremendous price. Looks like they might end up with the lower end of this at best so I'm hoping to sneak in.

ChipRich just looked at the seat counter and asked me "which party are the red ones?"

What an absolute moron, he has the brains of a 6 year old.

Didnt happen

Middy can confirm.

 hung is now 95% IMHO

 take 8/11 now!!

Yep - was about to say I would now be about 1/3 hung parliament.

1/2 now....dropping like a stone

Not that they have declared yet but looking like gg my Lib Dem bets, they are having a pretty bad night.

This is probably a really stupid bet but I don't think backing Labour to win most seats at 200-1 is the worst bet ever given the Edgbaston result...

that's a recount now...

Wouldn't be the first time that a Labour constituency victory looked a bit iffy.

11/2 NOM on billy hills  ;dingdell;

Just need Labour to get over 250 seats and turnout to stick betweem 65.01-70.00% and clean up... (If £50 is a clean up!)

you should clean up with the 250 seats and you will be very close with the 65% but should be safe

Turnout bet not settled on Betfair. ARe they waiting for Thirsk and Malton which was postponed until 27 May?

I think so......sporting index doing a similar thing with seats spread

A real slow roll waiting for this to pay out :D

you can get 1.26 on betfair if you want to buy some money IMHO.

Greened out at cost of £3 compared to letting it ride. A low turn out in Thirsk could just slip it under 65.01 as it might be treated like a by election and lots of voters might be pee'd off with last few days?

I'm on this. Am i right in thinking that it is a Hung parlimant so that as long as Cameron is the next Prime Minister whether it is in a minority or ConLib coalition i get paid?
If that is right then is it also true that i can green out by backing LabLib as the next government?

yes

Nice one Ripple