General Election betting

[thetank]

I think it is really.....hard to see any other outcome now although the debates do mean that it really isn't over until the debates are finished but I would be 1/6 or so now

I agree; the only thing that is stopping me putting any money on is that I've been proved wrong about 7 times already during this campaign.

Expecting the unexpected

[redarmi]

One thing that is probably worth bearing in mind is that the gutter press, especially the Tory gutter press, have not paid much attention to the Liberals before so they will be desperately looking for some dirt on them now to derail their campaign.  If there is anything major on any of their big figures (probably limited to Clegg, Cable and Huhne) then that could put a dent in them but really it is going to be hard to knock the 7-8 points needed off their poll ratings to give the Tories a realistic chance of a majority.  Looks to me that, given the Liberals condition of a coalition will be proportional representation then this might be the last majority govt we see in this country for many years

[ripple11]

 4/6 hung at william hill is morning.

 9/4* Cameron in as PM in a hung,(will hill) must be massive now...... as Clegg virtually rules out a deal with Labour this morning on TV and in the press.


*5/4 betfair

[Div]

4/6 hung at william hill is morning.

 9/4* Cameron in as PM in a hung,(will hill) must be massive now...... as Clegg virtually rules out a deal with Labour this morning on TV and in the press.


*5/4 betfair

Defo a big price, but not so sure Clegg totally ruled out a deal with Labour - more he seemed to rule out a deal with Gordon Brown, which isn't quite the same thing!

[TightEnd]

Sizeable moves in the UK Election betting market after the 3rd debate. Con's to win majority 2.3 from 2.8, hung parliament 1.8 from 1.6.

[TheChipPrince]

Sizeable moves in the UK Election betting market after the 3rd debate. Con's to win majority 2.3 from 2.8, hung parliament 1.8 from 1.6.

if you had a free £100 bet, where would it at this moment?

[TightEnd]

Still think it's hung, but that is in the price

However the only momentum (however slight) is with Cameron. Can't see Labour bouncing. Clegg has had the debated, don't see where another bounce there is coming from. if offered your bet the value is a Con majority at odds-against

[TightEnd]

http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=14411

[ripple11]

Yes, momentum with Cameron...seemed very chirpy this morning answering questions and signing his  "government pledge".

Sporting index 319-324 spread.....just short of the 326!

I looked at some key marginal info yesterday and it still shows the Tories short by a few % points.

This is going to be close!

[Longy]

Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com is predicting Conservatives 27 short and electoral calculus have them 43 short.

I have not seen any poll having Cons with a clear majority for a few weeks now.

[ripple11]

Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com is predicting Conservatives 27 short and electoral calculus have them 43 short.

I have not seen any poll having Cons with a clear majority for a few weeks now.

10 -20 short would be excellent for my bets 

My worry is a complete colapse of the labour vote over to the lib dems, which let the Tories in for a majority just by "standing still".

You Still can get 9/4 on Cameron as PM in a minority and or 11/8 on a majority.

[mondatoo]

Who are the conservatives the tories ??

I get confused with all the different names for them

[ripple11]

Who are the conservatives the tories ??

I get confused with all the different names for them

....you mean you haven't read The Tamworth Manifesto??


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_Manifesto

[mondatoo]

Who are the conservatives the tories ??

I get confused with all the different names for them

....you mean you haven't read The Tamworth Manifesto??


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_Manifesto

LOL,Somehow I've not come across this before

[thetank]

One factor the polls may not factor in is that, on Thursday, a lot of the new LibDem voters might be too daft to remember it's Thursday.

Whatever the polls are averaging for Clegg on Wednesday, I predict the actual LibDem vote will be 3 points less.