General Election betting

[ripple11]

Might be worth a little tickle on the Lib Dems in my area.

Its a Labour seat, but its held by Ann Keen (nicknamed Mrs Expenses after buying a Westminster flat with expenses whilst living just 9 miles away from Westminster!.)

She will be very lucky to get re- elected and the Tories are favorites to win.

 HOWEVER you can get 20/1 on the Lib Dems on a few sites..ie Paddy Power (with Tories at 1/5 !!)....whilst you can get Tories at 4/6 on Ladbrokes(only), to lay off the bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/brentford-and-isleworth/winning-party


2005 Result: Brentford & Isleworth
  LAB HOLD 

TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Labour  39.8%
Conservative  30.2%
Liberal Democrat  22.8%
Swing: 6.8% from LAB to CON
IN DETAIL 
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Ann Keen Labour 18,329 39.8 -12.5
Alexander Northcote Conservative 13,918 30.2 +1.1
Andrew Dakers Liberal Democrat 10,477 22.8 +9.3
John Hunt Green 1,652 3.6 +0.6
Phillip Andrews The Community (London Borough of Hounslow) 1,118 2.4 +2.4
Michael Stoneman National Front 523 1.1 +1.1
Majority 4,411 9.6   
Turnout 46,017 54.5 +0.8

[ripple11]

Might be worth a little tickle on the Lib Dems in my area.

Its a Labour seat, but its held by Ann Keen (nicknamed Mrs Expenses after buying a Westminster flat with expenses whilst living just 9 miles away from Westminster!.)

She will be very lucky to get re- elected and the Tories are favorites to win.

 HOWEVER you can get 20/1 on the Lib Dems on a few sites..ie Paddy Power (with Tories at 1/5 !!)....whilst you can get Tories at 4/6 on Ladbrokes(only), to lay off the bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/brentford-and-isleworth/winning-party


2005 Result: Brentford & Isleworth
  LAB HOLD 

TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Labour  39.8%
Conservative  30.2%
Liberal Democrat  22.8%
Swing: 6.8% from LAB to CON
IN DETAIL 
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Ann Keen Labour 18,329 39.8 -12.5
Alexander Northcote Conservative 13,918 30.2 +1.1
Andrew Dakers Liberal Democrat 10,477 22.8 +9.3
John Hunt Green 1,652 3.6 +0.6
Phillip Andrews The Community (London Borough of Hounslow) 1,118 2.4 +2.4
Michael Stoneman National Front 523 1.1 +1.1
Majority 4,411 9.6   
Turnout 46,017 54.5 +0.8

these prices have all gone now.................come on Mr Dakers !!

[Longy]

I have had a bet on the Libdems at evs in Birmingham Hall Green with billy hills

Current maj is 5000 to labour but this is a pretty strange seat. The local MP Roger Godsiff has been sending leaflets around like this http://www.thestirrer.co.uk/Documents/godsiff.pdf , he has also failed to attend local hustings. Also some local labour activists have defected to a local independent candidate, for the "respect" party.

There is also a lot of Muslim voters in the constituency, who still feel very strongly about Afghanistan/Iraq etc. The only real concern is that the respect candidate is going to pull in a lot of the disaffected voters from labour instead of straight over to the lib dems.

With the combination of Mr Godsiff truly awful campaigning tactics as well as the national surge of the lib dems, I think evens represents value. Electoral calculus site has 55.1% chance of a lib dem win.

[thetank]

Do you know how Electoral Calculus works out it's percentages?

It gives Libdems 30% chance of taking Aberdeen South (my constituency).
It's a 2 way marignal with Labour currently having a tiny (under 2000) majority over the Libdems.

Thing is, on the ground there's massive amounts of Libdem campaigning going on, and zero from the Torys or Labour. I think they've written it off and are concentrating their resources elsewhere.  

Given the current national polls and the local campaigning, I'd say there was 75%+ chance of a Libdem win here rather than 30%.

[Longy]

Do you know how Electoral Calculus works out it's percentages?

It gives Libdems 30% chance of taking Aberdeen South (my constituency).
It's a 2 way marignal with Labour currently having a tiny (under 2000) majority over the Libdems.

Thing is, on the ground there's massive amounts of Libdem campaigning going on, and zero from the Torys or Labour. I think they've written it off and are concentrating their resources elsewhere.  

Given the current national polls and the local campaigning, I'd say there was 75%+ chance of a Libdem win here rather than 30%.

The strong transitional model ldo.

Let us define the strong voter threshold α, which we have set at 20%. Let V(i,j) be the vote share for party #j in seat #i at the previous election, and let TO(i) be the turnout in that seat. Set TO to be the total number of votes cast TO = Σk TO(k). The national vote shares V(j) for party #j are

V(j) = Σk TO(k)V(k,j) / TO,

and its strong vote shares are

VS(j) = Σk TO(k) max(V(k,j)-α,0) / TO.

Suppose that the predicted national vote shares for party #j are P(j). Then the predicted national weak and strong vote shares PW(j) and PS(j) are

PW(j) = max( P(j) - VS(j), 0 ), and

PS(j) = min( P(j), VS(j) ).

Then the predicted weak and strong votes in seat #i are given by applying the Transition model to the extended set of parties: Strong-CON, Weak-CON, Strong-LAB, Weak-LAB, etc. All parties, not just the Lib Dems, are handled using the new method. Over this extended party list, we have

   1. the previous national results, VS(j) and VW(j) = V(j) - VS(j).
   2. the predicted national results, PS(j) and PW(j) from above.
   3. the previous seat results, VS(i,j) = max( V(i,j) - α, 0 ), and VW(i,j) = V(i,j) - VS(i,j).

It doesn't take into account local issues so I would research local matters before having a punt.

Can get the libdems at 7/4 for Aberdeen south, shall we get on?

[thetank]

Can get the libdems at 7/4 for Aberdeen south, shall we get on?

I'll get back to you tomorrow, price looks too good to be true to me so I'll scout out some second and third opinions.

[Longy]

Also had a small bet on the libdems in Colne Valley, at 8/1 with Corals. They are 36.8% chance to win this according to electoral calculus,in general this probs too high looking through the seats today but no way are they about a 10% shot. As they seem to generally over estimate the chance of the underdogs in seats imo.

It is a 3 way marginal with Labour currently holding it

2005 election results- Labour 18108, Con 16541, Lib Dem 12380.

The liberals did hold this seat post world war 2 at various points, so it deffo has some core liberal supporters put that together with the Clegg effect and local voters thinking they stand a chance of winning. I like my 8/1.

[Longy]

Might be worth a little tickle on the Lib Dems in my area.

Its a Labour seat, but its held by Ann Keen (nicknamed Mrs Expenses after buying a Westminster flat with expenses whilst living just 9 miles away from Westminster!.)

She will be very lucky to get re- elected and the Tories are favorites to win.

 HOWEVER you can get 20/1 on the Lib Dems on a few sites..ie Paddy Power (with Tories at 1/5 !!)....whilst you can get Tories at 4/6 on Ladbrokes(only), to lay off the bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/brentford-and-isleworth/winning-party


2005 Result: Brentford & Isleworth
  LAB HOLD 

TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Labour  39.8%
Conservative  30.2%
Liberal Democrat  22.8%
Swing: 6.8% from LAB to CON
IN DETAIL 
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Ann Keen Labour 18,329 39.8 -12.5
Alexander Northcote Conservative 13,918 30.2 +1.1
Andrew Dakers Liberal Democrat 10,477 22.8 +9.3
John Hunt Green 1,652 3.6 +0.6
Phillip Andrews The Community (London Borough of Hounslow) 1,118 2.4 +2.4
Michael Stoneman National Front 523 1.1 +1.1
Majority 4,411 9.6   
Turnout 46,017 54.5 +0.8

Just spoke to my brother about this seat as he votes there and he thought the libdems stood a chance as well. Paddy power as short as 2/1 now!

[Bongo]

Vince got a beating on the daily politics show today and there was also a change in tack for the Tories.

Also left their strategy notes in a cab and their ex-chairman is apparently involved in the campaign (he stepped down after his dodgy expenses were exposed).

Things could change around come Thursday.

[ripple11]

Vince got a beating on the daily politics show today and there was also a change in tack for the Tories.

Also left their strategy notes in a cab and their ex-chairman is apparently involved in the campaign (he stepped down after his dodgy expenses were exposed).

Things could change around come Thursday.

....and Ken "big beast" Clarke is getting in on the act now....its warming up!!

[thetank]

Vince got a beating on the daily politics show today

Everyone gets a beating on the Daily Politics.

Andrew Neil is a bad mutha

[Bongo]

Vince got a beating on the daily politics show today

Everyone gets a beating on the Daily Politics.

Andrew Neil is a bad mutha

Well they had all 3 parties on and he was signalled out. A particularly cutting quote is: "Isn’t the biggest myth of the election your reputation?". Ouch!

[ripple11]

Not sure a Tory majority is going to be value anytime soon.  i agree the Clegg thing is probably being overhyped slightly and no doubt the major parties will go for the Liberals now but any swing from tory to LibDems will almost certainly lead to a hung parliament.  I bet the 5/4 on Friday night and it is 4/6 now.  I honestly think 1/4 would be closer to the mark and if we went to the polls with the opinion polls a s they stand now then no overall majority should be 1/20 or so.

Hung is 4/7 generally, after the second debate.
 
William Hill interviewed on Sky tonight, and Randall and Boulton were asking why it isn't 1/10!!??

..........is 4/7 buying money??

[redarmi]

I think it is really.....hard to see any other outcome now although the debates do mean that it really isn't over until the debates are finished but I would be 1/6 or so now

[jizzemm]

5/7 betfair will do for me