blonde poker forum

Abit of a argument/debate I'm having with a friend.  You're playing in a 1.5k wsop event in vegas, at the same time the 10k stud hilo tournie is currently on a hour break. The seat next to you which has been empty for the first 2 hours it occupied by Tom "Durrrrrr" Dwan who strolled over from the stud 10k. It is folded to him in the c/o and he shoves his 60bb stack, your stack is 65 bbs, what do you call/reshove with?

77+ AT+ KQs

I take my chances with any pair, any ace, any two pictures.

22+ q9s+

then tell him the winner of hand owes other person a pint

if i dont win hand i can still use mad jamming skills to get back in with 5bbs

Gurantee no one would call with 22 here.

Probably are gonna side wider than what they actually would if in the actual situation.

I would say for me 66 up and AT up, maybe KQ

QQ+ AK

I really don't think ppl would call as light as they're saying in reality here, 1.5k is a fair whack for anyone.

Still difficult to call if we give ourselves 60/40.

not sure i agree

you need to get going in these small buy in WSOP tournies and dwan is pretty much shipping ATC. You need some double thrus to get going, if you dont like that principal - play the ventian instead

I'm not saying its not a call, just that its far more difficult to be there and make the call in reality.

100% this

Lol at 22+ and Q9+

Lol at 77+ AT+ KQs

Sorry but I just don't believe either of you.

It's one thing to say it because you're maybe 60/40 against his range but to actually do it is a very different thing.

Why the hell would you ever consider getting 60 big blinds in with KQ?

Because you may put his range ridic wide.

brcasue dwan is playign 3 tournies and is happy to just try and get a double trhu during the break

it would not be a  terrible call, and like I say above, these thiings are a crap shoot to start with and the structure only gets better later on

In day 1 of the 1k - they got thru 89.4% of the field ! - You do the maths!

1010+ AQ+

The buyin should have nothing to do with what our range should be,It's the WSOP so as well as all the pro's there are a ton of donks in these things so spewing off a 65bb stack is pretty bad when we can chip up easily enough.Totally disagree with the structure of these being bad,they have an excellent structure imo and the reason so many bustout is because there are so many really really bad players trying to bink the world because "anyone can get lucky and win" or just from the donkeys who turn up abs mortal from the night before and need to get back to bed :)

Yes I know it's a quick structure but this seems a ridiculously wide calling range.

What's your calling range in a $530 stars turbo? I assume given the above logic it's even wider?

This calling range looks likes one I'd put on a full tilt 6-max super turbo rather than a live game.

Very specific set of circumstances Matt. Not like he can literally play all 3 at the same time

we are talking about a specific villain and we know his M.O.

obv not the range for any player

and lol @ the early structure being good

What's bad about it 25/25 25/50 with a 2hr clock and 120bbs starting stack,heaven imo

88+, AK & AQ for me.

sng player ldo

LOL,nh wp

So we're going to cater to exactly what he wants and give him a 50 50 / 60 40 spin up while he's on his break?

Why not let him have his fun for 10 minutes then settle back down to our 8 handed table that we've spent the last few hours learning?

If we think everyone at the table is better than us then yes a flip is great but otherwise it just seems stupid to me.

Just seems too much of a gamble.

none of these 3 things are right for the 1500s

I was talking about the 1ks and assumed the 1.5ks where the same,my mistake

They're probably right but just sound wrong in Monda's language.

LOL  ;marks;

NIT!

You are something of a chameleon mr pie that you pass this spot, yet i have known you to make several calls when deep with A high

I guarantee I would call in these circumstances with 22 here.

Yeah but you're the ballin outta control camel

So you never readjust? If I came to the table and announced I was going to shove every hand at the start of a tournament you would fold anything apart from QQ+?

You'd honestly call a pure 50/50 shot with 60 bigs in a comp where the field is not going to be great?

Yeah, TT+, AK, AQs sounds reasonable to me...

welcome to 2010

has he looked at his cards?

Depends on his stack in the Stud tourney imo

The advantage you get by having a double stack in these tournaments is absolutely huge.

Yes, the field is weak, but there's also at least another 10 of these tournaments to play.

In the main event my range would be AA or KK. In a 3000 runner donkament I would insta call with 22.

Ok fair enough, I just dont see why when shoving>calling, we call 60 bigs instead of open shoving 59 bigs with 50% of our hands.

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

has anyone come up with a durrr range. he is doing this with AA, 72o? or has he not looked at his cards?

shoving is not better than calling when this deep. we virtually never get called unless we're crushed. calling is great if we know we're up against atc, wp matt, everyone's going with the level, no way are you ever contemplating folding JJ here

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   6,770,450,016  games    18.981 secs   356,696,170  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.796%     58.36%    00.44%        3951119484     29620272.00   { 77 }
Hand 1:    41.204%     40.77%    00.44%        2760089988     29620272.00   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 86o+, 76o }

tighter range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,023,899,936  games    13.883 secs   361,874,230  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.950%     56.50%    00.45%        2838568896     22537380.00   { 77 }
Hand 1:    43.050%     42.60%    00.45%        2140256280     22537380.00   { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 86o+, 76o }

Vital information omitted from the question imo imHo imVHo

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

you cant say "excuse me dealer can i just run over to the pavillion room and check on durrrrrs strack in the stud 10k? I have 88 and a hard decision, if i cant do that, maybe I could check wsop.com's chip counts and take 25k off what they say then make a decision".

Weve been in tourny for 2 hours how the hell are you going to know durrrrs stack?

Do you try and partonise everyone Mark?

I've never called valid input daft. You always miss who patronises first Costantine.

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

I could be wrong, but I think the man with the bracelet just agreed with Mantis. . .

Anybody can luckbox a bracelet  ;D

Is shipping 60 bigs in pre the proper play with any hand?

If people are going to be snapping 22 then yeah...

The situation is unique.

I wouldn't call with 22 in virtually any other spot.

It has to be first hand he sits down and he must still be in deep in another tournament.

erm - ( as an aside to this example, but a fact) he buys into a 10k and blinds away not playing a hand whilst deep in another tourney


back to eg

he has min £10m in props to win a bracelet

he aint gonna sit here and grind the 1500 when he is deep in a 10k - im pretty sure that his OPEN SHIPPING range is wide enough that my original raneg would be +ev agaisnt his

Therefore im going with it given all of the dynamics that are KNOWNS

Blinds still to act too, theoretically of course.

Judging by most of the responses on here I'd say yes if it's a premium but no if it's a bag of bollox.

Obviously in this specific situation sat with a bunch of heroes in a rush.

How can we talk about EV and a unique situation at the same time?

Surely for this to be +EV we need to have the same thing happen many times over.

As a one off we're just flipping and if we lose we're out. We don't get the same situation again 10000 times where we will win about 6000 of them so EV seems pretty irrelevant to me.

no. there's a difference between ev and long term ev

True, it's possible he wants to just take a spin here. It's also possible he wants to sit down and play some good poker in this world series. Shipping a hand is good poker for Dwann. He prob lols at how good. Out of 3k people there will be so many hero donkeys wanting to take a shot...he needn't piss about playing the streets right, why waste of time? I'd be gutted if I had position on Dwann for the hour and he flipped A-K here. Truly and properly mugged off mate. How many tournaments are we playing again to make that worth the 51.2% edge?

so if the hands were turned over and he had 22 and you have AKs you wouldnt call?

I'd snap with AKs. Because I wouldn't look like a div when I flipped my cards.

wow - just wow

you are concerned about how you look when considering the equity of a poker decission

so if you knew he had 22 you wouldntnt call KQs because you might 'bad' in other players eyes?

If I called light I'd look like a div because my decision would be a shit one. You think Dwan hasn't calculated his equity in pushing before now? I'm concerned about making bad decisions. But I'd look at myself and think div for making one. It's relatively obvious I don't care how my poker looks in other people's eyes isn't it?? And A-ks plays better than 2-2 in my calculated opinion.

answer the question - cause im pretty sure that KQs plays pretty similar to AK ( against 22)but yet you think its a different decission?

and what if you had 77 and you knew he had JTo?

you see where im  going?

I'd prob call with K-Qs if I knew he had 2-2. But I don't know he has 2-2. I do know he'd have a lot of A-x hands thou.

Aha for some reason I thought I was the bb in this hand.

My bad.

so he has a lot of Ax hands? really? but you dont call 99 TT JJ? - you must be good because you are passing up some edge!

lets cut to the chase - what do you think his range might be?

Very tight. He knows loads of people are gonna make donkey calls against him with 22 and the like, esp on the first hand he plays.

This is how seriously Durr is taking the small events:

http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2010-wsop/event-18/post.146774.htm

LOL @ just calling with KK+ and AK.

these people are satalite winners and like old tight nitty men.

Do we know how Tom walked up to the table, did he swagger or was his gait more skater/slacker ?

My own calling range would be TT+ A-K. Like I said, I couldn't rightly figure a range for villain because he's just sat down. And because I have no reliable range I couldn't make reliable calculations. So it's unlikely I'd get my knickers in a twist ref edge %'s in this hand. Once again you address these remarks to me and not Flushy.

well we have been having a "conversation" but my points are applicable to all.

The point is you do have some information, from media reporting, knowing dwan, having the specific set up of teh OP, so the fact that you think that you dont shows that you are limiting your own ability to make well informed decissions (i think the hand quote by Camel clearly shows that the people who think he is shipping very wide are probably correct in this instance).

I am also pretty sure that flushy doesnt make poker decission on how he "might look like a div", so you shouldnt include him within your specific reasoning, until he confirms that he would do this!

Flushy is good at poker Mark, you should stick to fishing. :)

Yah, and when people read Super System in the 70's they knew Brunson and knew how he played right? And he didn't adjust to that. I'm not denying we have some scraps of info and I'm not denying Dwann may have a couldn't care less attitude to this tournament, I simply don't want to emulate his carefree attitude. I'm not Dwann and I'm not playing every event. I have time to get more concrete info and make more informed decisions. I don't know how that translates to limiting my ability to make informed decisions. You always say your comments apply to all and yet only ever quote me. The trouble is there are a lot of brown noses on the forum, some small brown noses and some big brown noses.

I agree Flushy is a good player. I watched a vid of him once shipping 3k at 25/50 with A-K where he got snapped by A-J or something. I thought hmm never tried that and next tournament open shipped with A-A. Got snapped by A-Q. It said in the chatbox Observer: lol @ shipping Aces.

I wonder how difficult it is to take these events seriously when the buy in is 2.5 big blinds of his regular cash game.

It's like me playing a £5 freezout and I know I could never take that seriously.

In the $10k stud, Durr gave Ivey $15,000 in order that he could buy another 150% of himself.

lol

Your super system quote has no relevance in relation to this point

You are chosing not to use any of the info you have on dwan in the fear that he might have the top of his range. Thats ok as an MO I suppose. I terms of the reminader of the game, I assume that you will therefore avoid playing anything but Nut hands agaionst dwan for the remainder of the tourney?

You seem (in part) to direct your brown nose comment at me, which I find both insulting, incorrect and childish. I only need to cite this thread as an example to prove you wrong. Evil pie is someone who I get on with, yet chose to disagree with him on this thread.

Not sure what relevance your AA hand example has without any type of context.

Going back to the discussion we were trying to have before you got childish, Im not sure what the TT and JJ hands are doing in your range. Also you have previously mentioned in the  thread that you think he has alot of Ax hands in his range, why therefore can you not complete your  assessment of the reminader of his range might be?

from bryan devonshires blog - speaking of the 1500 event

" People were busting so fast that we eliminated almost 90% of the field in ten hours of play, good for a pace of about four bustos per minute"

finally!!

I'm convinced Keith is joking or just has ridic amounts of money to burn

So what would your range be in this theoretical situation?

Nope not joking or levelling.

I did think I was in the bb though, I wouldn't call with 22 otb.

In the exact situation of it being his first hand and noone left to act I would call with 22, purely because of the huge advantage you gain with a double stack in these events. I would also get the added bonus of getting rid of one the best players in the world from my table if I win and the rest of the table will think I'm a complete idiot.

I think all that is enough reason to call in an event I am probably 1000-1+ to win.

I think my equity would go up way more than double if I had a double stack in one of these tournaments. And I can't see how it's even close.

i'd just ask him what he has. if he's really looking to gamble he will probs just say/effectively say. if he doesn't then maybe his range is abit tighter than people think