Theoretical WSOP Question

[pleno1]

you cant say "excuse me dealer can i just run over to the pavillion room and check on durrrrrs strack in the stud 10k? I have 88 and a hard decision, if i cant do that, maybe I could check wsop.com's chip counts and take 25k off what they say then make a decision".

Weve been in tourny for 2 hours how the hell are you going to know durrrrs stack?

[GreekStein]

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

Do you try and partonise everyone Mark?

[MANTIS01]

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

Do you try and partonise everyone Mark?

I've never called valid input daft. You always miss who patronises first Costantine.

[Royal Flush]

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

[david3103]

I could be wrong, but I think the man with the bracelet just agreed with Mantis. . .

[mondatoo]

I could be wrong, but I think the man with the bracelet just agreed with Mantis. . .

Anybody can luckbox a bracelet 

[GreekStein]

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

Is shipping 60 bigs in pre the proper play with any hand?

[Royal Flush]

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

Is shipping 60 bigs in pre the proper play with any hand?

If people are going to be snapping 22 then yeah...

[The Camel]

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

Is shipping 60 bigs in pre the proper play with any hand?

If people are going to be snapping 22 then yeah...

The situation is unique.

I wouldn't call with 22 in virtually any other spot.

It has to be first hand he sits down and he must still be in deep in another tournament.

[outragous76]

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

erm - ( as an aside to this example, but a fact) he buys into a 10k and blinds away not playing a hand whilst deep in another tourney


back to eg

he has min £10m in props to win a bracelet

he aint gonna sit here and grind the 1500 when he is deep in a 10k - im pretty sure that his OPEN SHIPPING range is wide enough that my original raneg would be +ev agaisnt his

Therefore im going with it given all of the dynamics that are KNOWNS

[pokerfan]

Gurantee no one would call with 22 here.

Probably are gonna side wider than what they actually would if in the actual situation.

I would say for me 66 up and AT up, maybe KQ

I guarantee I would call in these circumstances with 22 here.

You'd honestly call a pure 50/50 shot with 60 bigs in a comp where the field is not going to be great?

The advantage you get by having a double stack in these tournaments is absolutely huge.

Yes, the field is weak, but there's also at least another 10 of these tournaments to play.

In the main event my range would be AA or KK. In a 3000 runner donkament I would insta call with 22.

Blinds still to act too, theoretically of course.

[EvilPie]

I just don't get why you all think he will be shoving wide, he has a 1hr break pretty sure he is going to just be playing fast but properly.

If he sits down to a premium though he can just shove and have a donkey hero call him.

Is shipping 60 bigs in pre the proper play with any hand?

Judging by most of the responses on here I'd say yes if it's a premium but no if it's a bag of bollox.

Obviously in this specific situation sat with a bunch of heroes in a rush.

[EvilPie]

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

erm - ( as an aside to this example, but a fact) he buys into a 10k and blinds away not playing a hand whilst deep in another tourney


back to eg

he has min £10m in props to win a bracelet

he aint gonna sit here and grind the 1500 when he is deep in a 10k - im pretty sure that his OPEN SHIPPING range is wide enough that my original raneg would be +ev agaisnt his

Therefore im going with it given all of the dynamics that are KNOWNS

How can we talk about EV and a unique situation at the same time?

Surely for this to be +EV we need to have the same thing happen many times over.

As a one off we're just flipping and if we lose we're out. We don't get the same situation again 10000 times where we will win about 6000 of them so EV seems pretty irrelevant to me.

[gatso]

Surely for this to be +EV we need to have the same thing happen many times over.

no. there's a difference between ev and long term ev

[MANTIS01]

The guy has strolled over and jammed first hand. Why do we call light right now? He could go on to jam every hand and then we can readjust our calling range to a developing trend. Assigning a range first hand is based on no factual info of how villain is going to play this game? Calling all-in 1st hand on a perception of an image doesn't seem so smart. This wont be our only opportunity to snap if it carries on. Yeah, a quick easy double-up is useful, so villain can push a decent 1st hand for that very reason, and get the queue of heroes behind offering him that very thing. This may be true or it may not be true, but I wouldn't know cos he's just sat down.

this is a daft post as we know the villain and we know his M.O. If he wakes up at the top of his range we jsut have to bink - like he is trying to do -

You really have abs no idea what's going on in Tom Dwan's mind when he sits down Guy, you really don't. Guessing at something doesn't make it a truth. You know villain? How well do you know villain? You've seen him play on the telly? Passing up K high or 2-2 here isn't letting a golden opportunity slip through your fingers. Maybe you wanna try trading some balls for some brains. If I was Dwan I reckon I'd be loving moving from table to table jamming strength and getting snapped off by jokers who "know me".

erm - ( as an aside to this example, but a fact) he buys into a 10k and blinds away not playing a hand whilst deep in another tourney


back to eg

he has min £10m in props to win a bracelet

he aint gonna sit here and grind the 1500 when he is deep in a 10k - im pretty sure that his OPEN SHIPPING range is wide enough that my original raneg would be +ev agaisnt his

Therefore im going with it given all of the dynamics that are KNOWNS

True, it's possible he wants to just take a spin here. It's also possible he wants to sit down and play some good poker in this world series. Shipping a hand is good poker for Dwann. He prob lols at how good. Out of 3k people there will be so many hero donkeys wanting to take a shot...he needn't piss about playing the streets right, why waste of time? I'd be gutted if I had position on Dwann for the hour and he flipped A-K here. Truly and properly mugged off mate. How many tournaments are we playing again to make that worth the 51.2% edge?