blonde poker forum

villain is good reg, 15k chips at 15/30 30 min clock sick structure.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5696133

Yuck, really think he always got here on the river? very sick but I call and cry....actually I probably fist pump call


And then cry.

Jack is irrelevant

then why are we folding?

[X] I suppose he mght have got there
[  ] Folding eights full

I mean its irrelevant in that the villain is not check raising the turn with JQ or JJ. So triggs decision is does the guy have QQ or not!

I don't understand what he's c/r the turn with esp considering we haz two of dem eights. How many multi way flops were there?

If he's capable of raising the turn for value with just a bare queen then surely we cant be that scared of the river to fold, or do we  put him on QJ/Q8 once he jams river and we were thinking that a raggy river card would be ftw. surely if he can have and play QJ this way then he can also have AQ/KQ/QTs and play it the same. Considering it went bet call raise, on the flop if he has QQ surely he wouldn't c/r the turn because you'd have to have so many more bluffs and just the 3 combos of 88 that he can super stack.

I'm calling river I think. Also prob not playing 1k events rotflmfao

If that's the only decision then it's not much of a decision and I call.

ya he never has QJ the problem i had was that i felt my hand was pretty face up as 88 or AQ and villain must know this, I didnt think we had enough history for him to believe i would fold 88 in this spot.

doubt many people are running a bluff in this spot on QQ8 multiway

i schrug call for reasons that marc talked about before. i dont think he'd c/r the turn w/QQ either. I mean if he has QQ then we have to be bluffing as we are repping Qx,88, so to raise he has to be super confident that we 100% have 88 but obv our bluffing range is alot bigger than having 88vqq on 8qq. I cawl.

man i'd be best folding pre.



so if we don't think he does the turn c/r with Qx if we're going to fold river shouldn't we fold turn or are we thinking he doesn't c/r turn + follow through on riv so we can easily fold to the river shove?

so we're never calling down once we raise flop and get c/r on the turn?

Never folding, I suspect he 3bets at least 2 combinations of the Q and the Q pre. Its possible hes retarded and raises AQ/KQ on the turn overrepping his hand, or that hes a player making a move with a 9Ts/TJs type hand with BDFD and gutterball. Him raising anything on the turn let alone Quads is just terrible since your never going to spazz with no history and such a dry board.

folding seems bad.

good post

hes a vgood winning reg.
its 25/50 with 15k stacks do you know how often people run bluffs with 9T/JTs hands in these spots?
and i very much doubt he's 3betting QQ here to an utg open this deep this early in a sick structure.
IDK, i have real trouble thinking he's gonna be spazzing off here. What does my hand look like to you guys, AQ/KQ/88 is he jamming river with AQ for value?

if hes really good

and he knows that you know he should never be spazzing off then it's a good time to spazz off as you fold full houses etc.

we dont have enough history for him to think i would fold a house here.

Oppo is good. He probably knows that you're good. This makes it really difficult to because of what pleno1 says.

Can't ever fold here tbh.

I know it's a bad way to look at it and I should probably analyse a bit more thoroughly but I can't do anything other than call very quickly and write it off as a cooler.

If anything's got there I think it's JJ fwiw. Can't think of anything else he plays this way. Over pairs maybe take same line on flop but surely raise pre and def don't turn them in to bluffs by jamming river.

but he thinks you'd fold a queen yeah?

plz forget JJ and overpairs here plz

jj less than 1% of the time imo. peels pre and never c/r turn?

so in one direction we think he's good therefore we go to level x.

and he thinks we're a reg but cos no history he doesn't go from level 1 to x?


we look like Qx 88 or air and he's repping QQ or funkyness.




where does flatting flop get us? how does that shift our perceived range and how hard is the hand to play afterwards etc.


surely a good reg will be making a raise on the turn when he can have more than 1 combo of value hands?? or is it just a case of we're deep and has nuts need to inflates here goess with a raise....?

lol what??!?!?!

He has AQ approx 105% of the time here, congrats on cold decking him.

nit nit nit

yeah hes jamming AQ for value and epecting to get called by exactly QK?

You've also discounted JQ and I assume we can forget Q3/Q8

So you folded because you put him squarely on QQ.

If you got it right mate that's amazing.

it's how often is he right in this spot not was he right this time tho.


Gotta assume without rick saying that utg is a fistard that he's not flatting Q3/Q8 even the sooted ones. So he really is as narrow on the turn c/r as QQ if he isn't c/r Qx. IF he is c/r Qx then he still has tonnes of combos we beat.

Pretty much, river is puke for him but he can't exactly check fold can he.

pretty sure im never folding here Trigg mate.

QQ, Q8s, AQ or QJs can be his hands and QQ is pretty unlikely as that would mean he has the final 2 Queens in the deck. And QJs unlikely with him raising the turn

Reckon he can defo have AQ a load here, and just jamming for value.

And if he has Q8s, then w/e, ridic cooler.


Hoping you didnt actually fold, but have pokerhanded it to look like you did.

oh and, nit nit nit nit nit nit nit

im fkin gash also though m8, so my advice is bs

This spot isn't coming round too often though is it. I never claim to be an awesome player and I'm not going to be sat there doing the maths and working out if I've got the right pot odds based on oppo having it 34.17% of the time or whatever.

I just think I'm winning cus I've got a full house that is a pretty good one and if I'm wrong I've still got some chips left.

Rick. What do you do if he checks river to you? I asume you bet for value? This means that up to the river you think you're winning despite his actions.

I merely meant we could fold and the guy has QQ BUT he's also shoving KQ/AQ or whatever and therefore our fold is terribad.

Really hate the fold here. I think this is exactly the way that he plays every Qx that he calls with pre and one of those Qx hands got there. Even if his range is only QJ, QK, AQ this is still a super snapcall

lol at this, just pinged moorman up


Rick says:
 u know thechemist83?
Chris says:
 yeh why
 1 of the crazier regs
Rick says:
 gulp


maybe i just had a brain fart i rly thought he has Q8s/QQ more than AQ here.
players i rate all saying bad fold prob means it was, moorman asking him later what he had fwiw.

Lol at the "gulp". Sweet.

Really interested to know what he had.

Good next level shit.

willing to take friendly bets that i was beat in the hand, beers next time i see you all

if ur in type "beer"

Too easy to doctor a hand history for free beer imo ;)

you've folded a FH in a 1k comp, you should be sure enough to deffo be making side bets lol.

If he expects us to fold a queen to this line then I think we have to paii the man. but i'm a station and predominantly a cash donky (though I excel in donking in all formats imo)

Ok, in a follow up to trigs hand I have a question. I had ajkhoosier1 on my table for a few hours last night. He played super solid, and had 41k when ave was 25k.

So he basically gets into a hand @ 300 600 60 where he gets it all in pre button vs bb against tables biggest stack ak vs 99. 

This is obv 'standard' for a high stakes reg playing a 215 

However, why then do we get pha posts where these same people want to fold full houses on the river? My point being, if you are prepared to take huge flips because "it'll even out in the end" why ever question hands that would just be coolers?

why just say 'I got coolered' if on analyzing the situation you can construct a range against which the decision is very clear?


There are not that many 'coolers' in poker, the worse you are the more you get 'coolered'

(btw I get coooolered all the time fwiw)


edit and obv the ak/99 hand will go pfr with v vwide range, 3 bet v wide range, 4 bet a possibly pretty wide range, hence shove pre with fold equity and pot equity.

they arent flipping tho, they both think their hands are infront of the others ranges of hands, if its a flip its a flip.
in the 216 myself and the sb both have 140k at 1250/2500 he opens to 7k I 3b to 19k he 4bs to 60k i jam he calls 88 and beats my AK

did i think i was flipping? no i thought there was a good chance he shows up with AK/AQ/AJ

car ;)

if i could afford to be betting cars i wouldnt be betting beers

Trigg, I'm not having a go, it's a genuine question.

I disagree with your comment on coolers, but that's prob cause I'm bad.

My point is you are happy to take on huge flips no problem. You barely consider them. But yet this hand requires case cards for you to be beat, and yet you agonise over it. I'm not saying it doesn't require thought or is worthy of posting, I just find it interesting that you fold these spots when u flip for fun

When you get it in as a flip you have near 50% equity, when you call it off on the river behind you have 0% equity, they are very different beasts

Yeah I suppose but he has 100% equity against the other holdings

He removed them from his oppos range though (rightly or wrongly he said he can't shove worse for value) so you expect him to call off with what he perceives to be 0% equity?

Sorry, no I'm not articulating very well ( on phone). I guess the point I'm getting too is I sometimes make nitty folds of pp's that a reg never would. But here he is willing to put his opponent on 1 hand, thereby making it a nitty fold. He could choose to include the remainder of his opponents range and weight them.

It's like Trigg flippantly says he could be ahead of his opponents range ( on the flip), or he could be flipping. The point being he chooses to ingnore the times he is also 20% in that spot

Dunno, cant articulate my point, it's like a risk derisk arguement, where he is choosing, for whatever reasons to ignore some informtion

beers + jagarbomb.

Your missing the point, Trigg see's it as impossible he is ahead here, he has 0% equity. I happen to disagree but Trigg made the right play given the read he made.

WTF? I'm too much of a fish to ever fold here.............

Also if he can be flatting Q8s pre surely he is aware of and is planning to use 'post flop fold equity in a comp of this BI' then we've gotta stack off and imo he's probably doesn't turn up with   Qs 8s very often at all. So it's gotta be   Qs Qc or some combo of AQ/KQ/QJ. He obv never has JJ/33.

If he checks this river we are vbetting to get value from AQ/KQ right and ruling out QJ/QQ?


edit
assuming he has c/r turn with AQ/KQ is he really just c/f river and only shoving hands that beat you?


edit because I suck at typing and making sense.

Beer.

I genuinely hope you win this one.

I can see your thinking and it would be a great one to get right.

beer

guy im not flippantly thinking i could be ahead or flipping, im not calling if i think im a 20% shot. Im explaining why AK and 99 get it in here

trigg - the point of this sentence shows that you are satisifed it could be a flip - for 60-70bbs - thats fairly marginal for someone who doesnt play 40 tournies a day

so with the greatest respect it is kinda of flippant (really bad choice of word by me), to be getting stacks in here in a 99 type hand

of course it could be a flip, i dont get your point? your saying getting 70bb in with 99 is wrong vs a player who could have all pairs and some funky sooted connectors is wrong? i dont know how the hand went down fwiw

never once have i said it was wrong

the poiint i am making is that someone who plays 40 tourneys a day will take this decision far more lightly than someone who doesnt on the grounds there is a good chance its a flip

thereby, logic should apply that a cooler is a cooler , call and move on (excepting that in this one specific spot, you have him on only  1 hand)

thats why if u only play 1 tourney a day your in for a lot of disapointment.

if i decided that his range was AQ/KQ/QQ and decide to call and he shows up with quads then i would write it off as a cooler.

I came to the decision(rightly or wrongly)  that it was correct to fold in this spot, i wont be calling if i think im behind anytime soon.

Keys woulda called this with King high.

Guy, I really don't understand what you're going on about!

I'm sure if Trigg was getting 2:1 on this call, and thought the dude had him beat no more than 65% of the time, then he would call.

The guy with 99 probably perceives he has greater than 50% equity against his opponent's range and that's why he gets it in.

A player who is willing to take a decisions lightly such as 99 due to multiple tables + is sometimes able to make a laydown when they think they are in a cooler > Player who folds because they are playing one table + always uses "meh if it's a cooler it's a cooler" rationale

I am struggling to think why people who play 1,40 or 400 tournies a day should make a different decision.

If a decision is correct against a certain range it is correct. Just the guy who plays one tourney a day will take 6 weeks to come to the same results as the guy who plays 40 tournies and over a year to reach the same results someone who plays 400.

Ofc there is the "Tikay" rule of being in poker to enjoy it, that is all well and good but this board really should be advising what is the best decision to make money.

So there is only 1 way to play a mid pocket pair off a 70 bb stack? Ok

Theres a few depending on what range you put the other guy on.  ;)

There is only one optimal way to play a hand vs villains range when he has a 70bb stack

Obviously in reality we can only make what we believe to be the optimal play against what be believe his range to be.

+1

this is basically exactly how i think he would play AQ, hoping you can't fold Qx (which given the action u almost certainly have) and lol he should never have Q8/QJ/Q3/33/JJ.

i think KQ would be too thin for value so i guess if he does show up with this he's trying to fold out the same hand. seems suicidal tho given the river hits you quite a bit and u have AQ a good portion of the time too.


if he did have QQ tho, there are no more queens in the deck so for you to be raising flop on this dry a board early in a 1k it gives him a fairly good indication you have exactly 88. for that reason he should probably shove turn with his hand cos ur like never folding.

but yeh, making quads is f difficult to do since there are only 4 queens in the deck and two of them are on the board....a lot easier for him to just have one of them with the best kicker in the deck.



some stove stuff that might be useful....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 124  games     0.005 secs    24,800  games/sec

Board: Qd Qh 8c 3s Jd
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    48.387%     38.71%    09.68%                48           12.00   { AQs, AQo }
Hand 1:    51.613%     41.94%    09.68%                52           12.00   { 88, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AQo, KQo, QJo }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  27  games     0.005 secs     5,400  games/sec

Board: Qd Qh 8c 3s Jd
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    88.889%     88.89%    00.00%                24            0.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:    11.111%     11.11%    00.00%                 3            0.00   { QQ, AQs, AQo }

beer

- any update

be surprised if doesnt value jam AQ on river

timing tells on rivar?

I played the hand badly I think by not open shoving the turn or reraising the flop (incase scare card hits turn in my Qx range, which is pretty much the same as my overpair range) .  I was quite sure he had 88 and 88 only since i had all the queens.  I think we can safely assume he never thinks I have QJ, so I really thought he was calling the river since he called the turn.  His perception of my range shouldn't change from turn to river when the jack rolls off as I'm checkraising the turn with QJ exactly never (which is why i played the turn badly).  Either he has me on turn and river or doesn't have me on turn and river.  I think he should call river if he calls turn.  With all of that said, great laydown, but I think you should fold to the checkraise on turn if you're folding river.

the chemist on blonde

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

ty for posting

Sick foldage Triggar

Even more awesome if trigg has created the account

i did think that

me too, until he used the term "perception of my range" rather than "what i might have got in me and".

combos of AQ>>combos of QJ played this way and ill allow 1 combo of QQ played exceptionally unusually (given we cannot have a calling range).

snap, not close.

im thirsty. i take it chris told you to post. plz post more if possible.

edit epic 7000th post

rotflmfao Nice work :)up

It's definitely me, and I definitely had QQ.  Someone other than moorman on my aim list linked me to the thread.  I tried creating an account, and apparently I had one from 2007.

sick, now i defo get paid my beer!

Being results oritented I know but I'm kinda glad you didn't take me up on the car offer now

N1 rick!!

Hat's off Trigg.

Great fold, one I could have made 0% of the time.

Great thread too.

Gotta be pretty rolled to see out the long run in carEV

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

I get to grim Trigg for a pint :D

sighhh corona at dtd monthly?

was just thinking about this hand.

theChemist gave you an extremely tight range for raising the flop (easier done because he could account for all the deck's queens)

If a good reg is going to put you on 88/Q8/AQ here if you raise the flop, surely we can't ever raise the flop with anything - unless we do it with air ever?

I just can't see any valid reason for raising the flop? I know this wasn't the point of the thread sorry for the de-rail?

Wouldn't call. call. call be the best line from a GT angle?

nope, raising the flop with air would be way better

but if we dont have a range to raise this flop that doesn't include houses - whats the best line?

He can only narrow his flop raising range so much because he has the queens though.  So unless he has the freak hand, then raising the flop is fine?  As it worked out raising the flop was obviously good, as it directly led to the conclusion that he was crushed.

I'd never fold 8s here against a good reg.  So much chance I'd be levelling myself.
 

I think this is a bit results orientated. If we dont ever ave air on the flop - what is the best line down the streets?

I love this hand, can't stop going over it. Fkin sick that he actually had QQ...

Is the consensus that it was the fold of the century or that he was right this time but most of the time wouldn't be?

I'm gonna watch the hand again.

[ ] I flop FH often enough to consider folding here.

wp Trigg

you nit

sorry chris could resist!


but true enough you didnt fold!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=45249.msg1080287#msg1080287