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1/2 at DTD. Fish playing £130 opens in the lojack+1 to £7. Julian, playing £470ish in the cutoff 3bets to £20. I cover and have Jc Jd in the small blind. I call, the big blind calls, fish calls.

Pot = £80  Ac Js 4h

checks to Julian who bets £42, I call. BB folds, shortstack shoves for £110 total. Julain doesn't think for too long, before calling. I also elect to call.

Pot = £410 1 player allin. 9s on the turn

I check, Julian bets £120 into the dry sidepot, with about £200 behind.

I don't expect Julian ever to bet AK in this spot, I didn't think it that likely also that he'd 3b a shortstack with AJ although I thought it possible. He confirmed both afterwards.

I'm not being results orientated, can we find a fold here? He has to have AA here surely? Obviously it's massively cold, and I expect to get a ton of abuse for posting this, but I think it's possible to get away here. Is it?

What are we putting then shortstack on? Some sort of Ax combo making it extremely unlikely Julian has AA - surely?

Given that I'm stacking off. Just a horribly cold deck.

This information was not available to you prior to the hand.

Every now and then you get coolered. Don't ever fold 2nd set. It's bad.

Am I fuck ever folding JJ here  :)

Run better Jules.

Terrible Terrible fold if you did.

Sometimes you just gotta take the pain.

AA is as likely as AJ - let alone the fact he could jsut be V betting AK (putting you on an A too given your call)

fold.

we have to put him on something that we beat to make stacking off ok. what can he have?

does he not keep betting with 44?

Is he 3betting 4's from the CO? Surely just flat and go to a flop?

obv depends on table dynamic, who is on teh button and who is the the pot - but yeah - he can

never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre

only hand he plays like this is aces

Surely this is being results orientated to say that? What did you put the fish on at the time? Any Ax combo means Julians unlikely to have AA so you almost have to stack off. It's virtually impossible not too.

44, AJ, AK, AQ, KK, QQ in order of likeliness.

If Julian thinks he's beating the fish he can try to get you off a better hand with this line.

Alternatively he can be betting for value with 44 or AA to win or lose a cooler.

Fold pre?!

That or don't fold when you make the set.

Aces is in his range, it isn't his whole range.

Mate your just wrong there

I dont want to say too much about my observations of Julian, because I dont think its fair, but I played a 6-7 hour session a couple of months  back, and I know he portrays a nitty image, but that quite simply isnt his range (and this i will say, because I dont think its Julian specific), ESPECIALLY when he is up!

Julian likes to play in position (almost exclusively with his non nut hands pre), and prefers as far as I could see to get it HU pre with his holding

Im pretty sure he raises much wider here

wait i havent seen jules play cash but his 3b range certainly includes AJ and 44 along with J4

I think you're making a mistake being so precise with eliminating hands from his range completely. If the other player is a spot at the table he can be both isoing wider and betting flop/turn wider for value and to try and isolate the weaker player.


You seem to suggest that we can peel pre, then peel the flop and now he only continues with 3 specific hand combos. Julian is meant to be a professional whos played for a while right? Why do you think he'd be that bad/narrow when continuing on the turn?

You can't fold here Alex.  It doesn't matter who the player is unless they are the absolute nittiest of the the nittiest that only ever 3bets Aces and Kings because you have to think the fish possibly has an ace (50-60% chance??) in which case you are putting Julian on literally 2 cards and he shows up here enough with other cards to make the call profitable.  Also it is wrong to assume that people NEVER do something...try and think in terms of percentage chances they do something.  He probably doesn't 3bet J4/44/A4 and probably doesn't shove play AK like this but if there is a 10% chance he does then it is tipping the scales in favour of a call.  Hero folding is a good skill to have but we can take it too far sometimes.  You have to work with ranges and percentages not absolutes.

If he never has AK, 44 and doesnt bet worse for value then its a pretty obvious fold and a boring hand to make a thread about...

could try turning a jack?

This.

If you're so sure Alex why are you asking?

What you're asking is if any of us know Julian well enough to fold to him here.

I can't think of anyone I fold to in this spot. I haven't played Julian enough to know.

I'd need to have played with him for a hell of a long time to get a confident read here to enable me to fold.

julian is a nit?

since when?

last time i played with julian and spoke with julian he was the biggest LAG out there his name was YO-YO for a reason

has he changed his game for cash?

i'd prob make hero fold. but would he really bet top set on turn?

He has  Aspades Ks.......please don't fold

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

In other words you think Julian is a terrible nit?


You do realise you are suggesting to fold 2nd set yes?

LOL neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, think I've folded a set twice in my life in this type of spot, if he has it he's got my money. I'll get it back when I cooler someone else the same way  ;D

yep +1

Why did you fold the set twice woodsey?

Maybe because you polarised your opponents range to a set, similar to what alex has done in this hand.

- jules doesn't 3-bet 44 or aj.

- jules can't have jj.

- jules isn't betting qq / kk on the turn.

- jules knows alex has a strong hand to flat twice here. (Alex's range is pretty much always pairs the way he's played the hand) so jules knows alex has a really strong hand and wants to bet.

Nothing makes me want to call now.

There is a little over £500 in the pot and it is £120 for you to call.  Ignoring for a moment the £80 that is behind he literally has to have AA 80% of the time for this fold to be profitable.  Even taking into account the other £80 he has to have it over 70% of the time.  You literally have to be sure he cannot have any other holdings which for a player of Julians reputation and results i find pretty hard to believe.  I have only played with him once (it was a cash table) and he 3bet 25o in the only notable hand he showed down in that game.  I would say that the decision may be close (you know his game better than me) but I find it hard to ever believe that this could be a fold.

You're forgetting the fish?

you're forgetting knocking out regs and isoing the fish

you're forgetting large aces that pick up FDs, you're forgetting large Ax that thinks it's beating the fish..........


edit but it is lovely to read a results orientated post and then say yeah I'm really good I make the tough fold.

yaya watever.

Redarmi - the pot would need to be a lot bigger than 500 to call off 120 on the turn when you think you're drawing to 1 out.

obv this whole thread is a massive level

I'm not forgetting anything tiltbone. I think jules would be checking back those hands.

ah awesome


I didn't realise Julian was this bad........

One was against the nittiest of nits and we were very deep, the other is hard to explain but I folded due what he said to me during a conversation an hour earlier. I was right both times........

I'm just not deep enough in this spot and there is plenty in the pot so I'm just not folding rightly or wrongly.

Again I'll say it, but if the fish is calling off with an Ax combo, the chances of Julian ever having AA are so small it's pretty much criminal to fold AA here. This is not a strictly heads-up pot 200bb+ deep, it's a pot on an Ace high board with a fish stacking off otf after c/r all in.

To narrow Julian's range down to exactly AA with him having the two remaining aces that are left - assuming fish has Ax is pretty terrible.

we all love Julian and i have no idea from this what hand he can have other than aces in this spot. but one the other hand i dont mind paying julian because its julian innit.
100% its a fold and if it was me i would know from how julian bet into the dry side pot that he has the nuts. its a bit about meta game but Julian is such a nice guy he actually has a tell when in this situation with the nuts. if he likes you then it aint as obvious as him standing up and cupping his balls going i got the kahunas but i am pretty sure he will have bet out with those sad puppy eyes with a pained expression on his face saying "i'm soory mate"

live poker is so much easier than on line

how much bigger. should we pokerstove the hand lol

i may have missed it but what hand did julian have please alex?

putting anyone on AA on that board is insane, just saying.

 ;boltpp; tag raises utg +1 you flat the button  with   Qc Js flop comes    Jc  9s  7c ...he checks you bet 17k he makes it 34k you shove your last 100k and he snaps holding  Jd  Jh any suprise?

Why?

The only thing I can see Julian having that we beat is a2-a10s that he is tyring to get Alex to fold AQ.

no surprise if you know your going t hit runner runner straight its a great play

PING!!!

AQs too

If there's even one other hand we can put him on here then this becomes a trivially easy spot to get it in.

So  Aspades Ks  is not in his range?

Jason stop derailing this thread with your lame bad beat stories ;) This thread sparked just the debate I hoped it would.

1) I'm not saying yet whether or not I folded, nor what Julian had.

2) This is not a result orientated thread, though I realise it sounds exactly like one. I think it's an interesting situation.

I'll facebook Julian and get him to comment.

Disclaimer: The Ace on the flop might have been a spade instead of the J or whatever I put it as. I know the flop was rainbow, and the board ran out backdoor spades.

r those saying its a fold on a level?

call quicker surely

I think "you can't fold because its second set if he has me beat then gl it's a cooler" isn't really top logic imo

my thinking in spots like this when I have the top of my range vs a very thin villain value range and a bluffing range of zero, is that folding is very detrimental to your dynamic with that person, and that coupled with acceptable equity vs his range (if it is wider than AA) would have me getting my moneys in more often than not and feeling pretty happy about it.

im not good enough to fold sets on that board

i think i will be pretty much fist pumping

Yeh it's this kind of statement I was hoping to avoid with this thread.

Ace of spades location is pretty important!


edit this why live hhs are so often annoying!

you dont have to be "good" to fold a set.

basically now the post is becoming more result orientated as with you saying your not sure if the ace was the spade or not you have told us julian didnt have  AXs

it can run out 4 straight 4 flush............


I can see folding this vs some old man nit but against a professional we cant just put him on one hand.

FYP i think folding a set here would make you a bad player rather than a good one

I've remembered. The Ace of spades definitely wasn't on the flop. The shortstack had  Aspades Ts and scooped the main pot.

Whole thread is a huge "I'm facebook friends with Julian Thew" brag.

well that's of no consequence, the As is also in Julians range then. But my point is that live hhs are so full of holes and inaccuracies and mis remembered stack sizes etc it's much harder to give good analysis than an online hh.

i disagree, this could never be a bad fold if his range is as thin as we're led to believe, not folding it because it's a set would be bad play.

not saying its a good or bad fold, just saying people really need to analsye hands in terms of actual strength vs immeadiate value

I agree in general. In this case everything is spot on!

Yes we can now consider  Aspades Ks as part of his range. I don't even know whether he'd bet that on the turn....hoping he comes on to answer!

fml

Surely with AKs he's betting vs the fish he's trying to iso?!


You seem to know Julians game probably better than he does? if so you should play every street perfectly vs him easily?

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I'm not saying I know his game, I don't at all! I asked him afterwards what he would have done with certain hands in that spot, and I'm relaying that information onto this thread.

Matt, it's ridiculous to suggest that because I feel that MAYBE I can narrow his range in THIS SPOT down to one hand, that I should go and play 100/200 online.

You cant fold with maybes thats the point.

+why would Julian answer all your questions accurately and honestly? what does he gain?

cos he's nice and not everyone has monetary or personal gain as a motive for every one of their actions.

Is calling pre standard given what we consider Julians range to be and that he seems unlikely to make significant mistakes post flop when we are oop? We are also aren't closing the action pre.

I think the only people who can tell you whether to call or fold post are ones with a lot of experience and knowledge of Julians range in this spot. I am not one of these people.

the very fact that we are putting julian on a hand and not a possible range means we cant even beat 5c/10c let alone $100/$200. this situation and on line decisions are totally different beasts. if we are wrong and call we pay julian. if we are wrong and fold julian makes money. if we are right and win this one julian gets it later (although from my small sample of cash hands with Julian he gets very coolered). Julian has kids to feed. its all good

100% this...

hence my post about julian betting into a dry pot

So this is all one big level then?!

You're not playing for money when you play Julian then or he is just desperate to give away every detail of his game and thought process?

so when you discuss online hand histories with others everyone talks bollox because they dont want you to learn incase you take their money. no they tell you what or how they play it to help you. exactly the same as Julian would.

I didn't use the word maybe.

Also +1 to what Titbeam said. Julian is a very nice guy but he is at DTD for the same reason as everybody else.

His line in this hand was 100% designed to get you to put everything you have in to this pot.

Unfortunately for him the side pot and the board made his hand look ridiculously strong so he had to get you stuck in a cooler to achieve his goal.

They are 2 different things tbf. Discussing general theory with other online players especially in games which have massive player pools is a bit different that discussing your exact range with someone who you are playing with day in day out in a small player pool.

I'm quite certain he played the hand to make the most money possible, of course he did. I'm also certain that after the hand, he would answer any questions honestly up until the point he felt he was giving away too much information.

So if you get in to the same spot again with Julian you're planning to fold?

Are there many players you would fold this same spot against given your recent analysis of the hand?

sorry longy i dont know if i know you but some of the time my posts seem to be taking the piss by those who dont know me. no offence intended

You don't see my point, if Julian plays in the DTD 1/2 game regularly, and he is going to play Alex regularly yet he wants to sit there dissecting his ranges at different points of a hand such that Alex can put him on one hand exclusively is that really a good idea?

so julian has the nuts? Julian would feel bad stacking some people off with AA here and would sigh shrug his sholders and mouth the words "sorry what could i do?".....but he would feel 1 million times worse getting some people to fold their hand that he aint beating by betting into the dry pot.  i would put mylife on the line that Julian checks almost every other hand here and if he likes Alex as much as i do he is betting to tell Alex and to prevent Alex from doing his dough in himself.... my get out clause when i am wrong in this hand has now become if he has not got aces "he hates alex and must be on a draw and ovb gets there "

Awaiting Julian to come and advertise to a bunch of DTD regs that he only 3 bets AA KK QQ pre from the c/o


popcorn.gif

you do know julian (nicest guy in poker) dont you andy. it all boils down to this....
[X] julian likes alex
or
[ ] julian likes alex

In short: Julian hates money.

So Julian is a poker pro with a conscience and a tonne of friends?

Who does he try and win off then?!

Some of the stuff suggested in this thread is so dumb it should be a level, the fact it's probably not a level shows why live is such a joke.

julian hates no one or nothing especially money.

agreed julian does have a conscience and a tonne of friends

he wins of everyone who wants to feed his kids

and i love you so much andy. 


Julian is on another level always. he knows what you know and adjusts his game as each and every situation is unique.

Unfortunately I have never had the pleasure of your company, it is one of my life ambitions though!

No offence taken at all.

Is smashedagain on a huge level? I'm getting confused now.

Please dont let smashedagain be our defence. OFC Julian is looking to make as much $ as possible, but I still think he has doessssss Aces.

i am trying not to be. trying to be honest about the situation and every single thing that my poker brain is telling me.....
two queues formed. one for hand shakes one for nose punches. the only one in the nose punch queue at dtd this weekend swung and missed.

I'm not folding. Julian is smart enough to realise when he has a hand that may be ahead of the fishes range but not yours.

So you'd fold?

I hope your post is a level.

Do not fold.  So many reasons why but the fact that he could be value betting worse ie aj a4

Also bit of general advice, statements like:

"never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre


only hand he plays like this is aces"

Are dangerous.  
How do you know hes never doing this?  All swans were white until one day a black one turned up.  Eliminate the impossible not the improbable.  Can i think of any other crap phrases...hang on.....................................................................................no thats it.

Why do you?

Will it ruin your day if it's not?

It was rubbish.

Nope.

fyp think its perfect now
adapt and overcome...semper fi.. oo rah

You don't half post some rambling bollocks sometimes  :P

ty

All of it?

The 100/200 was a bit tongue in cheek obviously.

I'll stick by the rest of it though and if it's rubbish fair enough.

Thanks for the laughs

I'm not saying Julian is transparent at all. You don't win what he's won by being transparent.

Neither am I saying we can always polarise his or anyone else's range to 1 hand. In this spot though, from what I know of Julian, I would be 90% sure he has Aces and I'd be happy with my fold.

Whilst Alex may have only played Jules for a few hours, he will have likely spokem to Mitch, Andy, Deadman etc about Jules's game.

Cba to read all 543 pages of replies. I was at the table. At the time I put Julian purely on JJ or AA and nothing else. I haven't played a tonne of hands with Julian, but from my experiance, he is not 3-betting and committing himself vs the short-stack. Not sure the numbers given are entirely correct, but at the time it was clear that any 3-bet would be committing his-self (Julian) to a shove from the short-stack. Therefore I think he has AQ/AK, TT+ minimum here. AJ is just about in his range, but barely. Shortstack has basically any Ax, PP, KQ in his range, he certainly didnt look like he was folding, I seem to remember it being quite a big open from him, out of a small stack. As the hand was being played I put Alex on either 44 or JJ and we both agreed afterwards that 44 was a fold in this spot as Julian has AA/JJ just so much here.

It was basically me who spoke to Julian after the hand and asked if he 3-bets pre with AJ, to which he replied no. Obv he isn't 3-betting pre with 44 here either, therefore the only hand he was shoving with he was AA.

I did however say that i'm never folding the 2nd nuts here simply because A) i'm not good enough and B) if i got something like that wrong then I would probs either monkey-tilt off the rest of my stack or find the nearest rope. imo he basically only ever has AA though and maybe 1 in 20 has AJ.

Surely post match he is gonna have the nutz.....don't u declare the nuts afterwards....even if outta misplaced kindness....

so julian had AA here then. would be good to get him to post if he could be bothered

of course he had aa there alex has already ruled out every other hand he could of had

If he didn't have AA the thread wouldn't have been started in the first place.

Think Alex is one of the few who isn't guilty of this tbf. As for the spot, I'd have thought Julian could have AJs, AKss or AA, certainly not loving the spot but I'd get it in on the turn.

I think that is an assumption made all too often

I rarely post hands where im beat anymore (without merit) yet people always assume you are

Thread title "Hand with Julian Thew - 2nd nuts wins but should I have folded just in case?" doesn't have quite the same ring to it.

Sorry Jason but I think you're talking out your arse here.

Definitely this.

If he's not then Julian should be banned from DTD for soft play / collusion.

Now that he's not the nicest guy in poker it could be a distinct possibility.

Maybe he's just betting cos he has the nuts and wants to win all the money?

Trying to save alex is nonsense.

Also, noone has mentioned how strong it looks that jules has bet 120 into 410 on the turn with 200 behind.

If jules shoves turn, I don't think I fold.

50p

I did a big lol.

Julian will be the first to admit that he is probably living up to an 'aggro' rep that he got 5 years ago against players who he doesn't play with semi regularly.

I had a similar hand to this I might put up at some point. The tilt factor in these spots if u get it wrong either way is shitty.

What has a dry sidepot got to do with anything here if its a cash game? 

Ah but in your case, Mitch the fold sounded as though it shouldve been rather trivial...

Errrrm... Don't wanna talk to much about it incase I do decide to post, but it's dependant on villain having a mega thin range of like 2 holdings, the same as u think Julian had in this one.

I take your point mc and matt but think you will find I am 100% right but can't reveal too much incase the Villan wants to post.

Been dropping off for two hours watching the lowball n now it's over and pez has won I'm wide awake . Fml

wtf 9 pages??? Whatever the consensus, I'm pretty sure we all have more important leaks to fix than whether we're calling too often with 2nd set, please stop wasting your time and energy with this hand. Cooler flop, move on.

FWIW I don't understand why we don't shove the flop. Try to play in such a way that we don't have a face up monster preventing julian from ever betting worse.

edit:: doing some reading back now, sigh @ pretty much every other post. Feel like I've gone mad or something, I can't believe the stuff that's being said

Tom High the numbers given are 100% correct. I made sure of it. I know he was allin on the flop for 110 because I remember chucking in a pink and two reds. Thus, he started the hand with 130, and Julians 3bet to 20 was definitely not committing himself.

I've learnt a lot from this thread. Am glad it got so many responses that in its first day, it has rocketed into the top 10 replies of all pha threads ever. Very proud :)

The most valuable lessons have of course come from my Dad, Keith mondeoman Johnson. I think a few others echoed the same wisdom about using phrases like "never 3bets 44". He had Aces of course and I did not fold, nor did I river quads :(

yes i played this hand & i can assure all that i played it to get the max.
jason most likely refers to the empathy that some of us feel when stacking a colleague; life is long tho & one ept isn't enough to retire on, i'm there to pay my cereal bills.
with hindsight i prefer a shove on the turn & my only regret is that it wasn't mitch instead of alex...
& yeah for the record i'm the muthafkn rock of gibraltar

cereal bills.

nice touch. i have to keep a cereal roll separate from my liferoll and pokerroll

also, can anyone remember the last post Julian made that didn't contain the F word?

Jesus. I am on page 2 and losing will to live. Yes he could have AA but AK is just as likely and AJ very likely. Julian can 3 bet pre with any of those holdings. Just check call him down and probably win the hand

did he jam the river or ck ck 3rd spade?

Swearing again Julian????   It's like watching the demise of Tiger all over again........;-)

Alex.... if  you want an undirected  discussion about the hand, don't post the result / post hand discussions, in the OP.

great post lol

yeah, and dont have second set

<3 julian

So much this.

+1

+1. some absolute drivel in this thread

oi no mark. if i was in vegas and my two mates had just won braclets the last place i would be is on here. poke keys in the eye too while you aint on your back in an acohol induced comma. and wtf is up with actionman. facebook just said he dropped the jackpot on a bandit n just gone to bed.

The only person who ever folds in this spot is Tikay.

Seriously, snap call. If you're folding here you're way too exploitable. If he's cold decked you, he's cold decked you. Folding the second nuts is mental though.