Hand with Julian Thew - 2nd nuts ever good here?

[outragous76]

never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre

only hand he plays like this is aces

Mate your just wrong there

I dont want to say too much about my observations of Julian, because I dont think its fair, but I played a 6-7 hour session a couple of months  back, and I know he portrays a nitty image, but that quite simply isnt his range (and this i will say, because I dont think its Julian specific), ESPECIALLY when he is up!

Julian likes to play in position (almost exclusively with his non nut hands pre), and prefers as far as I could see to get it HU pre with his holding

Im pretty sure he raises much wider here

[Ironside]

wait i havent seen jules play cash but his 3b range certainly includes AJ and 44 along with J4

[titaniumbean]

never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre

only hand he plays like this is aces

I think you're making a mistake being so precise with eliminating hands from his range completely. If the other player is a spot at the table he can be both isoing wider and betting flop/turn wider for value and to try and isolate the weaker player.


You seem to suggest that we can peel pre, then peel the flop and now he only continues with 3 specific hand combos. Julian is meant to be a professional whos played for a while right? Why do you think he'd be that bad/narrow when continuing on the turn?

[redarmi]

You can't fold here Alex.  It doesn't matter who the player is unless they are the absolute nittiest of the the nittiest that only ever 3bets Aces and Kings because you have to think the fish possibly has an ace (50-60% chance??) in which case you are putting Julian on literally 2 cards and he shows up here enough with other cards to make the call profitable.  Also it is wrong to assume that people NEVER do something...try and think in terms of percentage chances they do something.  He probably doesn't 3bet J4/44/A4 and probably doesn't shove play AK like this but if there is a 10% chance he does then it is tipping the scales in favour of a call.  Hero folding is a good skill to have but we can take it too far sometimes.  You have to work with ranges and percentages not absolutes.

[SuuPRlim]

If he never has AK, 44 and doesnt bet worse for value then its a pretty obvious fold and a boring hand to make a thread about...

could try turning a jack?

[EvilPie]

If he never has AK, 44 and doesnt bet worse for value then its a pretty obvious fold and a boring hand to make a thread about...

This.

If you're so sure Alex why are you asking?

What you're asking is if any of us know Julian well enough to fold to him here.

I can't think of anyone I fold to in this spot. I haven't played Julian enough to know.

I'd need to have played with him for a hell of a long time to get a confident read here to enable me to fold.

[Ironside]

julian is a nit?

since when?

last time i played with julian and spoke with julian he was the biggest LAG out there his name was YO-YO for a reason

has he changed his game for cash?

[pleno1]

i'd prob make hero fold. but would he really bet top set on turn?

[bhoywonder]

He has  .......please don't fold

[GreekStein]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

[titaniumbean]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

In other words you think Julian is a terrible nit?


You do realise you are suggesting to fold 2nd set yes?

[Woodsey]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

LOL neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, think I've folded a set twice in my life in this type of spot, if he has it he's got my money. I'll get it back when I cooler someone else the same way  

[pleno1]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

yep +1

[GreekStein]

Why did you fold the set twice woodsey?

Maybe because you polarised your opponents range to a set, similar to what alex has done in this hand.

- jules doesn't 3-bet 44 or aj.

- jules can't have jj.

- jules isn't betting qq / kk on the turn.

- jules knows alex has a strong hand to flat twice here. (Alex's range is pretty much always pairs the way he's played the hand) so jules knows alex has a really strong hand and wants to bet.

Nothing makes me want to call now.

[redarmi]

There is a little over £500 in the pot and it is £120 for you to call.  Ignoring for a moment the £80 that is behind he literally has to have AA 80% of the time for this fold to be profitable.  Even taking into account the other £80 he has to have it over 70% of the time.  You literally have to be sure he cannot have any other holdings which for a player of Julians reputation and results i find pretty hard to believe.  I have only played with him once (it was a cash table) and he 3bet 25o in the only notable hand he showed down in that game.  I would say that the decision may be close (you know his game better than me) but I find it hard to ever believe that this could be a fold.