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Title: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Nit Tendencies on August 31, 2011, 07:31:36 PM PokerStars Game #66816607072: Tournament #433296476, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (60/120) - 2011/08/31 19:15:50 WET [2011/08/31 14:15:50 ET]
Table '433296476 8' 6-max Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: shahar waite (6098 in chips) Seat 2: theczar19 (10095 in chips) Seat 3: Bear4rms (15183 in chips) Seat 4: -ANALNATSHA- (9671 in chips) Seat 5: Palau777 (14074 in chips) Seat 6: TranquilMind (16790 in chips) shahar waite: posts the ante 25 theczar19: posts the ante 25 Bear4rms: posts the ante 25 -ANALNATSHA-: posts the ante 25 Palau777: posts the ante 25 TranquilMind: posts the ante 25 -ANALNATSHA-: posts small blind 60 Palau777: posts big blind 120 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Bear4rms [Jc As] TranquilMind: raises 180 to 300 shahar waite: folds theczar19: folds Bear4rms: calls 300 -ANALNATSHA-: folds Palau777: folds *** FLOP *** [8c Ac 8s] TranquilMind: bets 465 Bear4rms: calls 465 *** TURN *** [8c Ac 8s] [4d] TranquilMind: bets 960 Bear4rms: calls 960 *** RIVER *** [8c Ac 8s 4d] [Ad] TranquilMind: checks Bear4rms: bets 1285 TranquilMind: raises 13755 to 15040 and is all-in Bear4rms: ? How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw) Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: cambridgealex on August 31, 2011, 07:37:46 PM I call, the reason being we have a full house.
A jolly good full house, in fact. The best possible one. It's probably a chop but meh. Let's get our chips back. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: zerofive on August 31, 2011, 07:57:04 PM How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw) We would have to have a pretty good read to fold here. Call and chop it up. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: DMorgan on August 31, 2011, 08:54:26 PM TranquilMind is a reg, ridic aggro Polish guy - met him at a UKIPT event
Definitely a call, I'd expect to see a fair number of bluffs here. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Rod on August 31, 2011, 09:58:50 PM This looks like a really easy call to me, he is almost never bluffing I would say (assuming no reads) but he is still bluffing more often than he has 88 isn't he? I would also say it's unlikely CRAI with 88 OTR as I would say it's pretty easy to put you on an ace if that is his hand. It is nearlly impossible for you to be beaten.
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: GreekStein on August 31, 2011, 10:14:16 PM I'd snap. If we're thinking about folding this hand we're only losing to 88 (44 would make me puke sooooooo hard) then it's a good spot for him to shove an ace too. Basically we're beat less than 2% of the time imo so I can't fold.
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: gatso on August 31, 2011, 10:20:05 PM I'd snap. If we're thinking about folding this hand we're only losing to 88 (44 would make me puke sooooooo hard) then it's a good spot for him to shove an ace too. Basically we're beat less than 2% of the time imo so I can't fold. why? Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: GreekStein on August 31, 2011, 10:21:59 PM Misread hh. Forgot unlimited hold em doesn't have 2 rivers.
Ignore my bs about 44 but rest is true. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: gatso on August 31, 2011, 10:23:18 PM ah, ok, was somewhat confused there
snap call obv Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: SuuPRlim on August 31, 2011, 11:28:32 PM This has to be way closer than everyone is saying,
he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173. I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold. However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??) Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy. I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: hatthehole on September 01, 2011, 03:17:07 PM This has to be way closer than everyone is saying, he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173. I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold. However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??) Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy. I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt. I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Spraggs on September 01, 2011, 03:42:56 PM How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw) If we have no read on the villain it has to be a call in a $22. As some have mentioned, this particular opponent is a decent agro (i think) reg. In real time MT'ing in a $22 i probably just call, however if it was say a HSMTT/WCOOP i probably tank, figure out he knows we have to have an ace and fold. He's never really bluffing here, maybe he thinks your capable of folding an ace, i highly doubt it though. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: pleno1 on September 01, 2011, 03:55:16 PM wtf, he is close to 0.000000001% bluffing here. not a very nice spot at all, in game i call, but that doesnt mean its right, its probably super close, but meh wtf hes polish i call.
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: AlexMartin on September 01, 2011, 03:57:19 PM This has to be way closer than everyone is saying, he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173. I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold. However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??) Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy. I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt. I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here. dading. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: SuuPRlim on September 01, 2011, 04:16:26 PM This has to be way closer than everyone is saying, he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173. I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold. However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??) Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy. I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt. I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here. yh true lol - middy in your esteemed opinion what combo's of Ah X would you expect an aggressive reg to open UTG? either way when one out come is +3,175 and one is -12,173 then he needs 4 Ah X combo's which he easy has to break even on the call so yh it's prolly a call asumming he plays A* here this way 100% of the time, if we think 50% of the time he'll value bet A* then we now need 8 combo's of A*'s in his opening range to break even which is pretty thin. It looks for sure like you have an ACE, but because if he has an ace also it makes it slightly LESS likely you do so that's why I think he'll c/j A* with a lower frequency than 88 (speshly as you can't have an 8) Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: skolsuper on September 01, 2011, 05:05:00 PM 1000% call, how are you getting on with that job search Dave? Villain has to play Ax this way so he can get called when he has 88, would assume most regs figure this and can't see anybody except total dribblers check/calling the river with Ax here. Think you've gotten yourself confused with your combinatorics a bit here, AhKx is 4 combos on this board, AhQx 4 more, AhJx 3 more, and so on. In fact I would like to revise upwards my initial assessment of the % of the time we are calling
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: cambridgealex on September 01, 2011, 05:35:15 PM Do you agree with pleno keys?
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: skolsuper on September 01, 2011, 05:37:38 PM Do you agree with pleno keys? HA, FAIL. No I don't because he said it's close and didn't commit to an answer. The clown. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: cambridgealex on September 01, 2011, 05:42:09 PM Do you agree with pleno keys? HA, FAIL. No I don't because he said it's close and didn't commit to an answer. The clown. Haha, knew you hadn't gone soft Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Dubai on September 01, 2011, 06:04:57 PM 1000% call, how are you getting on with that job search Dave? Villain has to play Ax this way so he can get called when he has 88, would assume most regs figure this and can't see anybody except total dribblers check/calling the river with Ax here. Think you've gotten yourself confused with your combinatorics a bit here, AhKx is 4 combos on this board, AhQx 4 more, AhJx 3 more, and so on. In fact I would like to revise upwards my initial assessment of the % of the time we are calling In theory this is correct, in reality not many people check shove Ax here, but they do 88- its a $20 comp, i doubt he is as balanced as you are assuming Its a slight +ev call but if u wanna lay me 9-1 they have 88 here il prob take it Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Royal Flush on September 01, 2011, 07:28:27 PM lol at balancing how you play Ax on AA88x so you can get paid when you have quads, please.
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: skolsuper on September 01, 2011, 07:35:35 PM lol at balancing how you play Ax on AA88x so you can get paid when you have quads, please. mate there are antes in this hand, don't need your input Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Dubai on September 01, 2011, 07:38:27 PM lol at balancing how you play Ax on AA88x so you can get paid when you have quads, please. mate there are antes in this hand, don't need your input GG :) Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Royal Flush on September 01, 2011, 07:41:17 PM sigh
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: SuuPRlim on September 01, 2011, 08:44:00 PM i never said it was a fold.
I was just adding balance to the thread following 7 straight claims it was a backflip fistpump snap call. I don't know how many A*'s he opens, maybe this guy is opening ATo+ (11combo's, and A2-A5 A8/A9 suiteds which is 7 more) so if thats 17combo's of A* and 1 88, if he'd chk jamming A* 50% of the time its a call, if 25% of the time we're breaking even, 20% of the time we're losing. I'd call and expect to make a bit a chip or two but I strongly disagree its ass clear cut as everyone claims. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Dubai on September 01, 2011, 08:46:10 PM and you are correct
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: hatthehole on September 01, 2011, 10:56:59 PM yh true lol - middy in your esteemed opinion what combo's of Ah X would you expect an aggressive reg to open UTG? either way when one out come is +3,175 and one is -12,173 then he needs 4 Ah X combo's which he easy has to break even on the call so yh it's prolly a call asumming he plays A* here this way 100% of the time, if we think 50% of the time he'll value bet A* then we now need 8 combo's of A*'s in his opening range to break even which is pretty thin. It looks for sure like you have an ACE, but because if he has an ace also it makes it slightly LESS likely you do so that's why I think he'll c/j A* with a lower frequency than 88 (speshly as you can't have an 8) all suited aces, ATo+. 12+11= 23 AhXx combos. Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Royal Flush on September 02, 2011, 12:23:58 AM Should we just bet more on the river here?
Title: Re: Full house, oh dear. Post by: Whollyflush on September 02, 2011, 01:07:18 AM Should we just bet more on the river here? tut, we should obviously be checking the river! |