Full house, oh dear.

[Nit Tendencies]

PokerStars Game #66816607072: Tournament #433296476, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (60/120) - 2011/08/31 19:15:50 WET [2011/08/31 14:15:50 ET]
Table '433296476 8' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: shahar waite (6098 in chips)
Seat 2: theczar19 (10095 in chips)
Seat 3: Bear4rms (15183 in chips)
Seat 4: -ANALNATSHA- (9671 in chips)
Seat 5: Palau777 (14074 in chips)
Seat 6: TranquilMind (16790 in chips)
shahar waite: posts the ante 25
theczar19: posts the ante 25
Bear4rms: posts the ante 25
-ANALNATSHA-: posts the ante 25
Palau777: posts the ante 25
TranquilMind: posts the ante 25
-ANALNATSHA-: posts small blind 60
Palau777: posts big blind 120
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bear4rms [ As]
TranquilMind: raises 180 to 300
shahar waite: folds
theczar19: folds
Bear4rms: calls 300
-ANALNATSHA-: folds
Palau777: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
TranquilMind: bets 465
Bear4rms: calls 465
*** TURN *** [ ] []
TranquilMind: bets 960
Bear4rms: calls 960
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
TranquilMind: checks
Bear4rms: bets 1285
TranquilMind: raises 13755 to 15040 and is all-in
Bear4rms: ?

How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw)

[cambridgealex]

I call, the reason being we have a full house.

A jolly good full house, in fact. The best possible one.

It's probably a chop but meh. Let's get our chips back.

[zerofive]

How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw)

We would have to have a pretty good read to fold here. Call and chop it up.

[DMorgan]

TranquilMind is a reg, ridic aggro Polish guy - met him at a UKIPT event

Definitely a call, I'd expect to see a fair number of bluffs here.

[Rod]

This looks like a really easy call to me, he is almost never bluffing I would say (assuming no reads) but he is still bluffing more often than he has 88 isn't he? I would also say it's unlikely CRAI with 88 OTR as I would say it's pretty easy to put you on an ace if that is his hand. It is nearlly impossible for you to be beaten.

[GreekStein]

I'd snap. If we're thinking about folding this hand we're only losing to 88 (44 would make me puke sooooooo hard) then it's a good spot for him to shove an ace too. Basically we're beat less than 2% of the time imo so I can't fold.

[gatso]

I'd snap. If we're thinking about folding this hand we're only losing to 88 (44 would make me puke sooooooo hard) then it's a good spot for him to shove an ace too. Basically we're beat less than 2% of the time imo so I can't fold.

why?

[GreekStein]

Misread hh. Forgot unlimited hold em doesn't have 2 rivers.

Ignore my bs about 44 but rest is true.

[gatso]

ah, ok, was somewhat confused there

snap call obv

[SuuPRlim]

This has to be way closer than everyone is saying,

he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173.

I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold.

However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??)

Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy.

I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable

[hatthehole]

This has to be way closer than everyone is saying,

he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173.

I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold.

However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??)

Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy.

I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable

there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt.  I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here.

[Spraggs]

How many people call and how many people fold and for what reasons (we are readless on villain btw)

If we have no read on the villain it has to be a call in a $22. As some have mentioned, this particular opponent is a decent agro (i think) reg.

In real time MT'ing in a $22 i probably just call, however if it was say a HSMTT/WCOOP i probably tank, figure out he knows we have to have an ace and fold.

He's never really bluffing here, maybe he thinks your capable of folding an ace, i highly doubt it though.

[pleno1]

wtf, he is close to 0.000000001% bluffing here. not a very nice spot at all, in game i call, but that doesnt mean its right, its probably super close, but meh wtf hes polish i call.

[AlexMartin]

This has to be way closer than everyone is saying,

he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173.

I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold.

However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??)

Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy.

I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable

there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt.  I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here.

dading.

[SuuPRlim]

This has to be way closer than everyone is saying,

he would DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO DEFO play 88 exactly this way, there is one combo of 88 and one remaining ace, so his actual value range is split pretty evenly between hands that we call 12,173 to win 15,348 (+3175) and where we lose 12,173.

I think he would play both A* and 88 like this - so if he never bluffing I think this should be a pretty mandatory fold.

However for every combo of bluffs you can give him folding becomes worse and worse, but how many AIR combo's can we realistically give him? what does he dbl barrell on a board like this, not too much complete badugi OTT surely because it doesn't look like you'll be folding much - unless you think he bets turn with total air a lot after you've called the flop? (I don;t know a ton about MTT tendancies so dont really know??)

Also do you think he ever turns 8* into a bluff? If you say he has no history with you then its tough to expect him to give you credit for folding an ACE and even really good regs have a habit of being pretty stationy.

I mean I don't think i'd fold in game but I'm pretty sure this is a spot where folding would be reasonable

there's several combos of Ax in his range and only 1 combo of 88 so it isnt an equal spilt.  I'd be pretty amazed to see a reg (any1) bluff here.

yh true lol -  middy in your esteemed opinion what combo's of Ah X would you expect an aggressive reg to open UTG?

either way when one out come is +3,175 and one is -12,173 then he needs 4 Ah X combo's which he easy has to break even on the call so yh it's prolly a call asumming he plays A* here this way 100% of the time, if we think 50% of the time he'll value bet A* then we now need 8 combo's of A*'s in his opening range to break even which is pretty thin.

It looks for sure like you have an ACE, but because if he has an ace also it makes it slightly LESS likely you do so that's why I think he'll c/j A* with a lower frequency than 88 (speshly as you can't have an