blonde poker forum

Ok so live 1/2 at DTD. The game is pretty interesting and the Doncaster superstars are generating a lot of action. The effective stack in this hand is hero with £400. Doncaster boy is first to act and opens the action for £30. Yeah quite a big open but this has been pretty standard for him, anyway we are to his immediate left and look down at the  Ad Kh and go into the tank before counting out a raise of £92.  Action it folded back round to him and he presses the call button. Looking back on it I wish I would have made it bigger pre just because he's never folding and I want to get maximum value vs this guy. I also wish I would have made it bigger to set up the pot for a shove on the flop because I put myself in an awkward spot when the flop came 3c 5h 7c (pot £186)

I'm left with roughly £300 and looking down at AK high on the flop when he checks to me after a few seconds deliberation. I consider my action before overbetting the pot for all of it. I know this play often looks like AK to a lot of people but I'm not worried about that because I think this guy is capable of calling with a lot of worse hands pretty often with the intent of "gambling" and I'm going to have the best hand so often. He's the kind of villain that will happily call with worse A highs and over cards which I dominate a lot so I thought jamming should be quite profitable.

I also thought about betting smaller to get peels from his worse hands but I thought there were a lot of action killers on the turn and I didn't really want to limit my value. Thoughts?

i dunno, he plays so faceup postflop, i'd just check back most of the time and just get to showdown/ pick off his bluffs. doubt he'll call you're allin with AT.

also, absolutely no need to take a highvariance line with him, just wait till you have a pair and take him to town.

sorry for poaching him and leicesterfish from your game yesterday :P

Not sure how crucified I'm going to get for saying bet ~£60 then call off...

Don't 3bet pre if its gunna leave you with more than pot back. You can make a sort of misclick-y raise to £150ish if he's really a massive whale, or even jam if its that sort of gambly table.

Much prefer b/c to checking. When his peeling range is decently wide pre AK is the best hand here so often and with the preflop action I think he's gunna play this pretty honest, ie he'll fold his A9 and sigh put it in with 66 but even if he only spaz jams a very small %age of the time I still prefer b/c to checking back.

would flatting be terrible pre with the view of jamming anyone who decides to raise us?

I think so, yes.

I'd 3bet bigger pre, would prefer a bigger 3bet to a flat just purely based on the player.

OTF I'm with Alex on this one, this type of player won't blow you off with hands that don't have good equity anyways and trying to show it down/realise your equity would be the line for me, I can't stand the thought of a bet/fold when he's capable of jamming all sorts but I think his overall jamming range would have just a little too much equity to show enough profit to bet/call (agree with Sam's sizing if you are going to b/c) speshly when you're in a soft live game I agree with what alex says that high variance lines are not optimal (would be a much better play if you knew the game would last for 12 hours)

you could defo consider taking a small stab on CERTAIN turn cards, could even value bet some pairing turns.

Really think shoving is kind of a desperate spewy move, where you're not too sure exactly what to do so we jam and hope for the best, we all do it loads but it's a bit frantic and that's not the best way to play in super loose full ring live games imo - I think the hope calls random Ax's and KQ is just a bit optimistic.

lolwhat? 68/call

5 25 quid chips pre

With pleno on this one, 3bet to this size or smaller pre and check back flop is nut low line imo

Really don't understand this logic either. If you are confident your hand is good, think he is there to gamble and will happily call with over cards, then let him. Don't over pot jam (essentially almost bluffing with your hand) giving him the chance to fold.

Fwiw although I think you can definitely induce him with worse, that's not to say I don't think he will turn up with 66/88 etc and other suited connectors that have also hit that board a fair % of the time

I mean betting £68 and calling will prolly give you a small profit but I think in a game like this where the action is going to be nutso for 3-4 hours (100-120 hands) then will die right down it's really not the optimal line.

we're not getting bluffed by stuff that isn't reasonably strong OTT by the sounds of the player so I think chking it back is the best line. Obviously it's dreadful from a theoretical perspective but we're not trying to play theoretically optimal poker we're trying to win as many £'s as we can, whilst losing as few £'s as we can in a small space of time.

If you make it £135 preflop then the pot is £260 and there is £265 back in stacks, you can merrily bet £85 and call and be pretty happy with that imo

surely dave, (playing devils advocate here as I know you agreed with me in the first place) the whole "better spots" argument is a logical fallacy in cash games. Why pass up a +EV spot now just because it's only marginally +EV and high variance? Yes, you can wait for better spots, but you'll still be privvy to those spots even if you get stacked here.

Playing vs this guy you HAVE to play exploitable, non-theory optimal poker to win the most money. The concept of balance goes COMPLETELY out the window.

Keys got stacked by this dude in this hand. utg raises £20, two callers, he (villain here) makes it £60 with 72o. 4 or so callers. it comes Q82cc or K82cc, checks to him and he bets £200, Keys c/r to £500. He calls. Turn is a 7 and they get it in. There's 100x stories even worse than that.

ps defo 3b way bigger pre. I'd go for £125 maybe even as big as £150. He might fold a bit more often but trust me, he's NEVER folding AT-AQ or suited aces or KQ/KJ all of which you crush, so yeh, big is beautiful here.

pps, and if it was all my money in the world peejay, I'd sit to cover him.

If you can have this game, like this for the rest of the week, 40 hours or so then yes go ahead and take every bit of EV going cos, well it's plus EV. However games like this are sick for 3-4hours, then they die off, and we don't know when and if they will star up again. So when you're effectively playing a much higher game than normal, in circumstances that are unusual you don't want to be nipping every slice of EV going. We don't ever WANT to take thin EV spots, but we do often for many strategic reasons, here there is completely no need.

So for me I'm interested in the solid, mega profitable spots (i.e when I have AJ on J74) where I know I'm printing money, not too bother about marginal +EV bet/calls because I could do them all week vs Mitch at 1/2.

people who don't play a lot of live poker will think I'm mental, but when you cant play 50,000 hands in a month its essential for your sanity you try protect yourself vs un-need variance where you can imo. and in games where people will double you up when you hit a decent top pair and they have anything, this seems like a perfect spot to be doing this.

but you can do that as well.

Say the EV of this bet/call people are suggesting is like +£20.

Or you can wait for another hand when you get AQ and it comes Q82 and you get stacks in. EV = £400 let's say.

Or you can have both and make £420 :D

If you're rolled for it, can take the swings and the variance and you LOVETHEGAME, why not go for both?!

Also, he stacks you, he'll be sat deeper and you can reload to cover him then get it all back in one foul swoop!

Thats if you can get in a hand  with him before Mitch or Keith does obv :)

haha,we actually nicked him from peejays game and started a 2/5 just nextdoor :D

lol. Ruthless

The whole waiting for better spots point I used to think was fish thinking but sometimes is relevant.  I think its relevant where if a fish doubles up from say £4k to £8k they will lock up/leave/get off tilt sometimes its not worth taking a high variance line.  This prob doesnt apply here though.

In the hand you should either 3 bet smaller or bigger.  As you realised youve left yourself with a tricky pot to stack ratio.  Don't really like shoving as you're never folding out a better hand and very rarely getting called by worse.  Think checking back flop/picking off bluffs is prob optimal option.
Flatting the raise pre is a bad idea as you want to isolate the hand to HU.

Doncaster a wealthy place? I never knew

you don't make £420 though do you? you either make £0, win £800 or lose £800. there is no EV here, if you win the hand you win if you lose you lose lol if this is an unusual game which doesn't happen all that often.

I dont think of it as "waiting for better spots" I see it as you're only going to get 3 (maximum 4) "spots" so don't bother with tiny edges, just hold on for big sot or go home even imo.

Obviously this doesn't apply if this game with these guys runs all the time, then you should wanna gamble (and be seen gambling) in spots like this.

I'm with Al on this one I think as long as youve got $ to reload you should take the small edges.
If you could take a +20 spot and run it a thousand times you would - just because you're only running it once and the outcome wont be Plus 20 doesnt mean the underlying maths aren't working here.

In fact I would always take an even money flip because i think i'll handle the emotional effects of the variance better, and other players like playing with people who will "give them a chance" - if somebody keeps getting it in and they're drawing dead eventually they are going to stop wanting to play with you.

Some good points there Rob.

yh I agree but you're missing one vital point, this is basically a one off game, it's playing way bigger than 1/2 and way more action that usual (unless I'm wrong and misjudging the situation?) so if this game would run with this much action for lots of days I'd be getting in and gambling with the boys all I could. However it isn't, so I don't think it's optimal. I think you're going to get 2 or 3 good spots and you should take them and dismiss the marginal ones because they are so detrimental to your session if they go against you.

and burrrrrn with you're Rob comments goulder!

Basically if you're regular game is 50/1 and 1/2 and you get into a violently swingy game I'd be looking to play it uber cautious over embracing variance as the effects off it going badly will often be worse than the benefits of it going well. If you're regular game is 10/20 then obviously that wouldn't be a point of contention in this example.

Why is losing a marginal one so detrimental to your session?

I know nothing about Peejay btw so this isn't him as an example but I'm assuming this is pretty relevant to most of the DTD games.

Apparently these doncaster lot come into town rarely but when they do it's mental stuff and the variance is high. so 1/2 effectively becomes 2/5 or 3/6 but it's a great spot to play ofc. However they're around for 4 hours or so, so can expect about 100 hands. If you take 3 marginal spots you're basically flipping (albeit with a small edge no doubt), at higher than average stakes for 600big blinds. You could lose all 3, easily could happen (you could also win all three)

Spose you lose all three, lose 600big blinds, you now have to return to the regular games, where winning 600big blinds takes a good bit of time unless the games get really good (no way to expect that though) Very tilting, bad for morale and a small hit to the bankroll.

Spose you win all three. Great, 600big blinds, how happy are you, worth risking ^^^ for? If you're playing way into your average stakes then yh prolly, but games bigger and better than this don't run hardly ever at DTD amirite?

It's just a different part of game selecting imo, I've sat out of sick 10/20 games online this month because they just don't run often enough when they are good and all I need to do is run bad and i'll undo 2 weeks grinding at 1/2 - 3/6 just really bad for morale + If I had a sicck session and won $10k and be far less happy than how tilted I'd be if I lost $10k and ruined my HEM graph.

That's why I'd be looking not to take marginal spots on in this specific spot. Like I've said, if this game with this much action ran all the time I'd merrily gamble it up, because it's a)non eploitable and b) good for your image but in what is basically a one off I'll just wait till I have a top pair.

but what about when we win the high variance plusssss ev spot, morale is high and we go to marbella with the boys and rub fiddys on our tiddys. feels alot better than having to grind feels bad.

That is interesting. I always feel like a pussy for thinking things like that (like the bolded bit)

E.g. I left the 2/5 early on saturday cos it was getting too big, the donny lads had gone home, and although it was still a good game I was sat with 5k and was covered in a couple of spots - if I'd been stacked it would've been disastrous for morale, and the fear of that, would've made me play bad - so I booked the win.

But I always get ripped for that sort of mentality :(

I think it's very sensible. If the games ran like that all the time it would be different. If you're playing in games that are playing a lot bigger than they usually do and you're going to get into super close spots (you aren't going to be able to play this game again very soon - or at least you prolly won't) then you're basically taking a 55/45 for you're months NET results and your immediate morale. Pretty sure that is just gambling. If you're extremely comfortable taking the gamble (whilst acknowledging that it is a gamble) then staying and playing seems abso fine, cos after all it is profitable.

with me and my game selecting this month I've just decided that winning is not worth the risk of losing - if there were games that I could play running everyday Id happily punt around. I'd rather not play and book a decent month than risk the entire month's performance on a 3 hour session on random wednesday.

Not saying I always follow this train of thought lol (I rarely do) just saying that when I have I've always thought afterwards that it's a very good one.

if that is the case then defo be snapping up the variance!

Any chance the Donny lads read this?

nah they're more 2+2 sorta lads ;)

FYPs

sort of...

=5?

EXACTLY, I actually said that about 3 times in different phrases during this thread but no1 seemed to understand.

Keys knows

you just explained it really badly the first few times and it sounded really fishy

Having that mentality is fine as long as you are aware that you're leaving money on the table by doing so

sometime not losing is better than winning

marginal EV spots are still short-term gambling and sometimes it's just not worth the risk in live poker where everything is the short term