blonde poker forum

Hi all,

Apologies for the username. I was young when I made my account.

I work in the Sports betting industry and will bet on anything from Football, to cricket, to NFL. My focus is on the more obscure derivative markets where I feel it is possible to gain an edge since the traders cannot study the probabilities to the degree I can. They will generate a line using basic stats (or a model) and adjust based on smart money/liabilities.

Why this forum? From what I can tell, there are less trolls here than the other main one I use. Secondly, the traffic seems to be steady but not too overpowering.

The aim of this blog is three-fold:

1) To justify each every selection; in my head and in writing, so that value can be obtained. No tilt bets; no 'feel-based' justification.
2) To achieve a 500% growth in my bankroll (200 units) over the next 12 months (200 units is the liability needed. Clearly the max loss of certain bets could be far greater).
3) To entertain and educate if possible

Bets will be placed at Spreadex or Sporting Index. A bet can be anything from 0.25 of a unit to 50 units (depending on the spread/market i.e. Total knockdowns could be 0.2-0.4).

Follow along.

Cheers.

Will be following with interest. GL.

Look forward to reading/learning

Good luck

sounds interesting, GL

good luck mate.

Thanks guys

Bet 1) England vs SA Test Series

This will be my only pick for a while as I haven't noticed any upcoming opportunities.

Market: Kallis Series All-Rounder Performance 355-370
Pick: Sell @ 1 unit per point.

Analysis:

Jacques Kallis will go down as one of the top 3 all-rounders of all time.

            Mat    Inns    NO    Runs     HS    Ave            BF              SR           100    50    0    4 s    6 s
Batting: 152    257    39    12379    224    56.78    27151    45.59    42    55    14    1375 90
            Mat    Inns    Overs    Mdns Runs           Wkts    BBI    BBM    Ave            Econ    SR    5    1
Bowling  152    252    3159.0    793    8957    276    6/54    9/92    32.45    2.83    68.6    5    0


Jacques Kallis, if fit, will play three test matches against England. This would ordinarily mean six innings. He bats number four but he is not 100% to play in all six innings (SA bat well/declare/rain). In his career he has missed 15.5% of possible innings. This is mostly related to SA playing weaker teams. Since England are a very strong team, we can notch this % of missed innings to 8%. Therefore he is expected to face 5.52 innings.

Kallis' batting average is a mighty 56.78. And somehow, considering his age, Kallis does not appear to be slowing down. As an absolute maximum (considering he is playing the best test nation in the world on home soil), for the purpose of this series, his expected average cannot be higher than 46 (46x5.52). Kallis has played brilliantly against every test nation but suggesting he is 10 runs worse off than his average in this contest (when he IS aging and has faced zimbabwe, bangladesh etc) cannot be easily argued against. Cook's test average is 48 and they are similar. Indeed they have extremely similar quotes in the series runs

=253.92 (SPIN's Kallis batting quote 225-240).

Kallis is however bowling less. Throughout his career he misses 17% of innings and bowls an average of 12.5 Overs an innings. However, this is falling, which makes sense considering his age. He hasn't bowled 25 Overs in a match for the last 18 matches. At an average of 10 Overs per innings and bowling in 4.98 innings, he will bowl approx 50 Overs in the series. His strike rate (68.6) is increasing considerably (as his bowling gets worse). At a minimum of 75.0 SR, he will take exactly four wickets in the series.

= 80pts (SPIN do not have a bowling count).

Kallis' catching remains constant. He average 0.63 catches per innings. Therefore if he will field in all six matches, he will take 3.77 catches

= 38pts.

Total = 371.62.

Now it would appear that a total of 371.62 means that there is no bet. Not so. The markets are all related. If Kallis is catching more (apart from c&bs which are rare), then he has less wickets to bowl and vice versa. Additionally, the more he bats, the less he bowls due to the tiredness factor/less Overs left in the match. Whilst his averages show what he does in his career, in isolated matches, I believe these factors matter. In addition, factored into his average is the chance of a possible very high score. This however, negates the chance of a very high score in the 2nd innings as he might not bat. Thirdly, I have been generous to Kallis in light of his recent form. Sporting Index have his quote 20pts lower. Fourthly, there is the small chance of injury/rest (increased due to age). I believe my bowling and catching figures are correct so there is profit in the quote to sell.

Due to the related nature of the bets and the randomness of averages, I cannot give an exact makeup figure. If there was an exact model for it, there would never be any value whatsoever. I can envisage it falling into 315-330. I also believe this market can be traded favourably since Kallis may struggle to adjust initially to Anderson who really is in exceptional form on our pitches.

The reason for why the line may be too high is the reason many large lines are value to sell. People are afraid to sell in fear of the WCS so they notch the line up.

1 unit per point sell @ 355
Realistic maximum loss 80pts
Realistic maximum win 70pts
Expected win 1x30=30pts

Feel free to question anything!

Excellant post and analysis.

Wish you all the best on this.

Who do you work for mate?

What other forum do you go on?

Hi Camel,

I'd prefer not to say if that's ok although I tried to pm you (didn't work). Some of the work is confidential so it's easier this way. I just hope people like the write ups and I'll be searching for the next one. On 2+2 btw - don't post much anymore.

PMs should function after 10 posts so you should be OK to try again now.

Will read with interest as I'll be spread betting on the NFL again this season.

It worked it now.

Great. I will be specifically looking at player performances for the NFL where stats do not create the correct line due to the idiosyncrasies of the player match-ups. I'm just a huge sports fan so looking at bets from a granular level makes it even more enjoyable.

Good luck with this, I'll be following with interest.

Yep,good luck, looks like the makings of a great thread.

very interesting first bet

FWIW its weather related too isn't it?

More rain, interrupted play = less runs all round, and less bowling for Kallis as Steyn/Philander/Morkel will take the overs. More catches in the slips too

Decent weather from next Thursday sees higher scores in the series, Kallis building innings', and him being required as the fifth bowler more

I gather the jetstream that has murdered our cricket summer clears off North after next Saturday, whether this leads to more favourable batting conditions (thus in my opinion putting the Kallis unders bet at risk) will be interesting to see 

Hello Phil - this could be an excellent thread based on the Kallis write up and I look forward to reading it.

Will you be doing any long term football trades on season points?  Of course I can only go off the fixed odds at the moment but I think Leicester and Sheff Utd shouldn't be favourites in their divisions so I imagine I'll be selling them both.

"Fourthly, there is the small chance of injury/rest (increased due to age). "

I think Spin give some kind of allocation per match when a player is absent.  Not sure what spreadex do in this regard though.

Looking forward to your NFL analysis when the time comes.

Hi Tightend,

As stated, my focus is on the inter-related nature of the bets which I don't feel is fully incorporated into the price. I can't begin to predict the weather and must assume the predicted weather is factored in. I'm sure it will pour at some point!

Thanks for your feedback.

No long term football trades. The reason is because the team values are extremely well researched for the leagues offered. Every stat needed is out there and the prices aren't subject to corruption by fan money (as casual punters don't bet spreads). Since every match can be compiled accurately, an aggregate is not difficult. The only factors are transfers/manager exits and the possibility of teams falling off due to injuries/stamina (Blackpool/Swansea etc). I haven't been through SPIN's results but I'm sure they have an excellent strike rate of hitting bang in the middle of the margin. I can't comment on Leicester and Sheffield United atm although I will be posting football plays throughout the season.

Fair enough. I suppose they are just slightly high on the bowling. In any event, on such a high line, I only need one thing to 'go wrong' to make some serious points.
One thing I didn't mention is that his expected average (which I slightly notched down) should not improve as the series continues. I.e. Added confidence for Kallis is not going to increase his potential. However, lack of confidence (as seen with Strauss, Bairstow) can be extremely detrimental to his scoring. This is especially the case against England as each bowler is able to bowl to plan and execute it better than the rest. Essentially, if Kallis struggles early, his expected average for each innings will decrease more than increase if he is playing well. This is just gambling theory - I may be wrong in this particular instance.

Re: NFL. I will be discussing player performances with two people in particular. One has a stats background and is an NFL nut; the other focuses specifically on match-ups (QB vs Safety, Safety vs WR) etc. Looking forward to it. For me it's Boxing > NFL > Football/Cricket >>> everything else.

"I haven't been through SPIN's results but I'm sure they have an excellent strike rate of hitting bang in the middle of the margin."

This will definitely be true for the Premier League, but the other divisions I would be surprised if this is the case.  It isn't that rare for the teams ranked last in the spreads to finish very high up (just off the top of my head Watford the year they went up under Boothroyd, and Cheltenham in L2 last year but there will be numerous others).  For me the key is not doing too many bets as the 2 point spread will chew you up.

Hands up who has recently opened a spread betting account.  :hello:

                                                                                   
Never actually done a 'spread bet' (is that even what they call it?), looking forward to coming along for the ride.

Be careful my friend..........I've many a time had £500 lying in the account and had a drunken punt on 20 markets on an NFL match at what I considered low stakes and woken up with a hangover on the couch and discovered I had a debit balance of over a grand!

Exactly. For every normal sportsbetting bad-beat story, a spread-betting one is ten times worse!

Selling total goal minutes in this match - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/03/20/spain/primera-division/futbol-club-barcelona/granada-club-de-futbol/1140917/ was not fun.

I read the faqs and I'm sure it said you can set up stop lossses? Which I plan to do. Will be playing VERY small stakes for the foreseeable, just makes it more fun than paper trading to get started.

Any chance you can do an idiots guide to spread betting ?

+1

I'm sure there are some on the internet but I wrote one myself for someone...

Spread betting is similar to shares in that you can ‘buy or sell’ You do this by placing bets above or below the set line. The line is comprised of a ‘buy figure’ and a ‘sell figure’ and the space in the middle is the juice/vig. The line can be anything from the amount of corners in a match, to the total of all the shirt numbers who score..to even a supremacy. Here is a brief breakdown of the key markets.

Major Spread firms: Sportingindex.com ; Extrabet.com ; Spreadex.com

Corners: Spread: 12.5-13.5..

You may buy corners at 13.5 and sell corners at 12.5. Some people think if it lands on 13 exactly, you lose all your money (NOT TRUE).

If I buy at £10 per corner @ 13.5...if the corner count is 15 corners I will make 15-13.5 = 1.5 x my stake = a profit of £15.

If I buy at £10 per corner at 13.5...if the corner count is 9 corners I will lose 9-13.5 = lose 4.5 x my stake = a loss of £45.

If I sell at £10 per corner at 12.5..if the corner count is 1, I will make 12.5-1 = 11.5 x my stake = £115

If I sell at £10 per corner at 12.5..if the corner count is 20, I will lose 20-12.5 = 7.5 x my stake = £75.

In short, you take the total from the buy or sell side (whatever you were doing) and all winnings losses are inclusive of stake as you win or lose x your stake.


Shirt Numbers: Spread: 44-47

This of course works on the same basic level. You add all the shirt number of goal scorers to find the result. The betting behind this is clearly related to lineups as is most betting, especially spreads (goal minutes etc)

Supremacy: Barcelona/Arsenal 0.56-0.68

This is literally as you know it, a straight up goal supremacy. The team mentioned first gives away an imagined handicap and you would buy or sell depending on your read of the game.

In this example..If I was to buy  Barcelona’s goal supremacy over Arsenal @ 0.68 and they won 2:1, I would win 1 goal minus 0.68 = 0.34 of a goal. I would win £34.

Similarly, if I was to sell Barcelona’s supremacy @ 0.56 and they won 4:0, I would lose 4-0.56x£100 = £344

Regarding cricket player performance, as it says in the icon next to the player...

1pt per run
20 pts per wicket
10pts per catch
25pts stumping

Therefore Jacques Kallis' spread is 355-370

1) If you buy for £1 per point and he makes 450pts, you win 450-370=80 x £1=£80
2) If you buy for £1 per point and he makes 357pts, you lose 370-357=13 x £1 =£13
3) If you sell for £1 per point and he makes 600 pts, you lose 600-355=245 x£1 = £245
4) If you sell for £1 per point and he makes 235 pts, you win 355-235=120 x£1 = £120

You always buy from the buy side, sell from the sell side.

Thanks.

Nice one, Is this what happened Didi Hamann when he blew a wedge on Cricket before! I seem to remember it vaguely that it was spread betting and every run that was scored beyond a certain point was costing him thousands!

Thanks for the idiot's guide. One thing i'm not sure on, in the corners example you said if its 13 we don't lose all our money, but what does happen if it lands in between the spread?

I did quiet a bit spread betting last season. Specifically selling the time of the first goal when the favourite was at home and less than a 1.3 favourite.

I put it on a spread sheet and had a sample size of about 100 games and showed a profit of 4 points on average.

The reason I stopped was because I made the cowboy mistake of changing my stakes which led to me losing a lot more when I upped my stake.

As you can imagine most of the teams I backed were Barcelona/Real Madrid/Bayern/Milan/Juve etc..

Im gonna be doing it again this season but sticking to a level stake.

Ive also done quiet a bit of spread betting on Cricket, which was almost entirely in-running.

Ill be following this with interest.

Good luck.

Should be an interesting read.

Are the total point jobbies out for League One yet? Where would you set the line for Stevenage?

If I get it, on the buy side of the bet 13-13.5 = .5 loss and vice versa.

Yea that's what I thought but couldn't find clarification when I tried ye olde google. Cheers.

"Are the total point jobbies out for League One yet? Where would you set the line for Stevenage?"

These normally only come out about a week before the season as they want as long a look at transfers as possible.

I'll have a guess that Stevenage will be something like 62-64?

I'll have a guess that if you offer Chomps 62-64 he will be a rather big seller!!

As a Leicester season ticket holder, their favourites tag is completely false in my opinion

the prevailing wisdom is we have loads of money, can buy the championship etc etc

However, even ignoring last season's failed attempt at this, the owners have given instructions to CUT the wage bill, with FPP rules at the end of the new season a consideration.

So far this summer Bamba and Mills have left, and Beckford will do too

We've brought in two Man U reserve squad players, and a Conference striker. Decent buys hopefully, but not going to make us roar away with it


Our squad now is roughly what will take us through the season. It's no better than last year's

We are a top six side at best, in what is a very competitive tough division where teams will take points off each other all season

I'm a strategic seller if we are priced high


Much more value lower down the prices in teams like Huddersfield and Ipswichj who are going be competitive and could easily be top ten

I agree Tighty.  Think Leicester will be 75-77 something like that?  Looks a sell to me.  I think Bolton will win this division.

Watford could be a buy depending on how low they are pitched as they have immediate access to the Udinese network so will get 5/6 players in pretty sharpish I'd imagine.  Would have to be 68 or below to tempt me to buy though.

SpreadEx have Kallis at 335-355 compared to 355-370 on SpIn.

That may be partly due to a difference on how injuries are treated.

If Kallis gets injured Spin give you 122 points per game missed.  Spreadex seem to have a vague clause "if there is no official result an allocation will be added".  It would be worth finding out exactly what this means before deciding to go with Spreadex (if you were a buyer).  Isn't there always an official result in a test match? 

The allocation counts if Kallis doesn't play or if a ball isn't bowled in the test.
SpreadEx allocate 115 per match which is their mid-range price pre-series which is the same way that SpIn work it out.

Ah okay fair enough.  Quite a difference in price then.

As a general rule, SpIn has higher quotes than SpreadEx on most markets like these.
If you want to sell, SpreadEx is the site to use!

I'd say that this just confirms that selling at 355 is a decent bet. :)

Any fancies for the golf?

Bubba Watson is interesting me as a buy of "no max" finishing position at around 60.  This course will punish any of his errant shots and restrict his ability for his normal brilliant recovery and inventiveness.  I could see him having a nightmare week.  Think I'll make a small play.  Also going to buy Fowler on the leaderboard index at around 6 as he seems pretty consistent in Links so far in his career.

Lol - Watson leads the field after 7 holes.  Looks another expensive escapade incoming!

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

He hasn't been online since July 19th.

Hope he hasn't topped himself.

Been in Spain! Yeah, not going great although I try not to judge by results with no sample size. His average is 56 and he is going at... infinity. I foresee a loss but hopefully he plays the way I expected him to play in the remaining two tests. He has already been rested for the ODIs showing he is ageing. However, it is worrying how easily he fended off 'the best combined bowling attack in the world'.

This thread isn't going anywhere. I will simply try harder to search for value.

Good luck and apologies for the first tip!

Bad. 242 (182no, 40 in wickets and 20 in catches).

Then again, every SA player has those figures...

Bets 2,3,4

Somerset vs Glamorgan CB40
1.45pm

2) My Matchmakers: Kieswetter Performance/Allenby Performance       
SELL -0.50 - 4.50 BUY

SELL @ 4 UNITS PP (basically taking Allenby perf over Kieswetter).

3) Glamorgan Team 50-Ups      SELL25 - 30BUY   

BUY @ 4 UNITS PP

4) Glamorgan Bigshots      SELL34 - 42BUY   

BUY @ 3.50 PP (25pts per six).

These are all based on my view that Somerset are slightly overpriced. You can't really predict sixes and 50ups. Having gone through all the markets, these appear to be the most appealing. I would like to post more, using my rough analysis of the averages but I don't have the time as the match kicks off soon. These are medium buy or sells but will not make up for the Kallis bet.

I will be writing far more for the player performances on football/NFL. One possible boxing bet later.
 

Looking very good. I hope some got on...

Results

2) My Matchmakers: Kieswetter Performance/Allenby Performance      
SELL -0.50 - 4.50 BUY

SELL @ 4 UNITS PP (basically taking Allenby perf over Kieswetter). VOID (KIESWETTER DIDN'T PLAY)

3) Glamorgan Team 50-Ups      SELL25 - 30BUY  

BUY @ 4 UNITS PP WIN +57X4= 228 POINTS!

4) Glamorgan Bigshots      SELL34 - 42BUY  

BUY @ 3.50 PP (25pts per six).

VOID (NON-RUNNER NORTH)

+228 POINTS after 4 bets (with Kallis bet following on).

I will be discussing the element of randomness in this blog from time to time. This is just one example. All those that followed the Kallis bet are frustrated as it looks like a (biggish loser). And yet, I make 228 points on the very next set of bets and I believe no one else got on. These things cannot be controlled.

There will be a couple of bets today.

Bets 5 & 6

Arsenal vs Hong Kong Kitchee


5)

Ars Performance/HKK Perfomance   0-0   SELL89 - 95BUY

SELL @ 4PPP

6)

Hong Kong Kitchee Team Goal Minutes   0   SELL34 - 39BUY   

BUY @ 1.50PPP

Szczesny; Djourou, Miquel, Eastmond, Gibbs; Diaby, Coquelin; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Miyaichi; Chamakh

This is one of the most incompetent back fours I've ever seen fielded for Arsenal. And although they have the pace of Walcott and Chamblerlain (who I do not expect to finish the match), they have serial wasters Diaby, Coquelin and Chamakh. I have a contact who for some reason is knowledgeable about Hong Kong Kitchee and he informs me they have more than enough for a goal. He rates they goal expectancy as 0.90, worth a small buy on the handicap or total goals outright.

Anyway, this is a friendly. Arsenal have clearly shown they couldn't care less about friendlies (though incorporated into the price somewhat). I was sorely tempted by Hong Kong Kitchee headed goal minutes and to buy their corners as I see one coming but I won't be greedy!

Again, I am aware the analysis is slipping somewhat. I intend to step it up as that is the only way I can be confident I have made every attempt to attain value.

Gl

I've never spread bet. What do you do here? Try and have a buy bet at the new spread to cap losses?

Hong Kong Kitchee crushing. Arsenal defence absolutely appalling.

5)

Ars Performance/HKK Perfomance   0-0   SELL89 - 95BUY

SELL @ 4PPP


MADE UP 26. 63 PTS WIN X 4 = +252

6)

Hong Kong Kitchee Team Goal Minutes   0   SELL34 - 39BUY  

BUY @ 1.50PPP

MADE UP 37. 2 PTS LOSS X 1.50 = -3.50

Total

228 POINTS + 252 POINTS -3.50 POINTS = +476.50 PTS

Bet 7

Mens 80kg Middleweight Taekwondo (Starts 8th August)

R.Azizov      SELL13 - 16BUY   
 
Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

BUY AZIZOV @ 8PPP

This is from a friend. What do I know about Men's Taekwondo. His only loss this year was to Aaron Cook who is the world number one (thought incredibly left out by Team GB). Apparently this guy can blitz or is cool under pressure. Taekwondo's Mayweather  ;D

http://www.taekwondodata.de/ramin-azizov.aamj.html#top

Running Total +476.50 PTS

Some very nice results so far. :)up

I'm on Mr. Azizov.



PS ; Good to see 2 bronze medals ........he's fav to win, so it looks a bet with a good upside and a smallish downside if he only gets a bronze.

Playing devils advocate, but what makes him a better buy in the spreads than at a bookies at 10/3?

How do you weigh you the best option?

Can't get on Paddy Power or certainly not this kind of exposure. Pinny are < 3-1 which I count as the true price.

Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

So we bought at 16 (it's now 17), so max loss is 16. We can win 50, 25, 10 and 10 (both bronzes awarded).

I have tried to crunch the numbers with a maths friend but even he says it's too complicated. He'd have to excel it and he doesn't have the time.

Gold Medal win = 50 = 34 point win. Max Loss (out of top 4) = 0. 34/16= 2.125-1. (c. 85/40).

The 10/3 is win or bust. This has a 34 point win, a 9 point win and two 6 point losses.

He is just above 2-1 to win with the Silver and Two Bronzes omitted. I wish I could actually prove that the odds would better 3-1 or 10/3 but sadly I can't!

MereNovice would be salivating at the prospect of working out that equation.....

I hope not - he might prove me wrong!

I see Taekwondo starts tomorrow....and I think the 80kg is Friday.

Found an article that says he was leading throughout the fight with Aaron Cook...and actually a draw on points in the end, before Azizov was disqualified

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-2140096/Aaron-Cook-European-champion.html

Selling GB Gold medals at 27 look fair to you?

I can't see much downside, I couldn't make the midpoint any higher than 26.5 or even 26.

24 looks infinitely more likely than 30 imo.

What are the remaining realistic gold medal prospects?

Dressage individual 3/7 inc fav.

Payne (swimming) Fav.

Reade (bmx) Fav.

Farah (5000m) Joint Fav.

Campbell (boxing) Semis 2nd fav.

Ogogo (boxing)  Semis 3rd fav.

Joshua (boxing) Semis Fav

Evans (boxing) Semis 3rd Fav

Nicola Adams (boxing) Final.

Ed McKeever (k1) Fav

Mens K2 2nd Fav

Mens Hockey (outsider but in semis)

Daley (diving) 2nd fav.

Mens 470 (sailing) h2h today for gold. Post. Fri.

Womens 470 h2h for gold.

Sarah Stevenson  (Taekwondo)

Sandy


Edit:-

Jade Jones  (Taekwondo) Final

  Mr. Azizov gets through the first round........

Loving the noises he makes when he kicks!

Very tough first fight

He's evens - could close out now

And beaten by a random Italian

He fought like a whining baby.

Running Total +476.50 PTS - 16x8 (128) = 348.50.

Kallis goes again on Thursday.

Good thread Phil

Keep em coming

Kallis Series All-Rounder Performance    20 Aug 12    402

Loss = 1x47

Running Total +348.50 PTS - 47 = +301.50

I am having a break for a while. I can't commit the time and posting random picks with no justification does no one any favours. Good luck to all and if someone wants to take over feel free!

Cheers

That's a shame.

Really interesting thread.

Hope you come back and carry on the thread soon!

+1

Hi all,

let's start this up again.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/cricket/twenty20/mm4.uk.meeting.4406961/twenty20-melbourne-stars-v-melbourne-renegades-player-markets

https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Stars-v-Renegades/p137402

BUY L.Wright Performance 30-34 @8PPP
SELL B. Hodge Performance 32-36 @8PPP
BUY MURALI Performance 22-26 @8PPP

gl all

Decent start!

back with a bang!

+301.50 + yesterday's = +717.50 points

Today's bets:


http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/cricket/twenty20/mm4.uk.meeting.4406965/twenty20-sydney-sixers-v-sydney-thunder-match-specials
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Cricket/Big-Bash-T20/Sixers-v-Thunder/p137931

50-Ups Sell 22 - 26 Buy SELL @ 8PPP
M.Henriques Performance Sell 31 - 35 Buy BUY @ 8PPP
D.Warner Performance Sell 34 - 38 Buynone SELL @ 8PPP

gl all

50-Ups Sell 22 - 26 Buy SELL @ 8PPP -40
M.Henriques Performance Sell 31 - 35 Buy BUY @ 8PPP +264
D.Warner Performance Sell 34 - 38 Buynone SELL @ 8PPP -288

-64...running total +653.50 points


Today's bets

Twenty20: Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers (Match Specials) sell 50 ups 8ppp 22-26

sell travis birt perf 8ppp 31-36

Twenty20: Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers (Match Specials) sell perth bigshots at 6ppp 64-72

buy katich 8ppp 23-27
sell hogg 5ppp 22-26

for anyone's that's following, I will only be sticking to cricket and boxing (very rare as fights available for spreads are too well covered) for now. I won't have too much time to write down my reasoning but rest assured - I am pretty confident I've studied harder than any trader on the individual players. I consider the potential flow of the match, their current mindset, how they perform against certain bowlers/batsmen and looking for edges trying to get in the captain's head (maybe a player will get a bowl when he wasn't expected to).

I will update today's later but I was definitely unlucky on the abandoned game. i stood to win because of the shortened game (player performance).

Phil I haven't posted yet but am reading

Cricket being one of my things

Do you ever bet fixed odds?

Do you read tips for tikay? Feel like contributing?

-142 POINTS. Running Total +653.50 points = +511.50. Got unlucky with the weather as factored in some rain affecting the performance. Agh

adjustments for hogg's late catch

No, only spreads and only derivatives/props. Cricket o/u specials on particular batsmen/bowlers is vigged too heavily.

I don't read tips for tikay but I'll check it out.

Only just found this thread and seems pretty interesting.

I haven't used spread betting in the past but will definitely have a look around and read about it now.

Just for the unaware, whilst I am up over 500pts, this is a very low win rate (at the moment) as I'm risking potentially hundreds of points every bet. However, I hope to grow the balance and up the stakes.

Do you bet in play? Or is it all done pre match?

If you can put a bit of reasoning in when you can would be insightful

all pre-match. Player Performances don't go in running. Smashed it with Pakistan Sri Lanka but didn't have enough time to post on the blog.

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP

Selling Hogg. He never bats and was extremely lucky to take the wickets he did last match. His quote went up (results orientated) so he seems a good spot to sell again. I'll be selling him all tournament if his quote stays the same. He does always bowl his quota but if batsmen don't need to hit him, he doesn't have any magic balls. I can see him getting one wicket but that's it.

Re perth scorchers bigshots (marsh, marsh, katich). Last match they played at a big ground (Woolloongabba). This one is a lot smaller (W.A.C.A. Ground). Katich was out to a no ball but his perf is too high to buy) and both Marsh's looked in great nick. If it wasn't for the falling wickets they could have been even more aggressive. I can envisage at least four sixes between these three. If Katich holds up his end, Shaun Marsh could get us freerolling by the time Mitchell comes in and starts going bananas.

ouch. Sometimes it goes this way. Katich and Marsh looking good but only 4s no sixes. One out, that was it. Hopefully hogg bricks out and I'll study for tomorrow.

I meant do you buy/sell player runs in play.

Thanks for the insight. Agree about Hogg

2020 player performances don't go in play. I don't do player runs in play as they are strictly average based and you can't argue with the quotes most of the time.

hogg bricked out but got a catch again. He is one useless fielder. I'm hoping his quote doesn't change.

Hogg Performance Sell 24 - 28 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +112
Perth Scorchers Bigshots Sell 56 - 64 Buy BUY @ 8PPP -512

Running Total: +511.50 - 400 = +111.50 :(

today's bet

My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP Hales is overrated (imo) and will get found out (reminds me of levy two years ago and napier before that). No one performs to this level without outstanding pedigree (he doesn't) or some brute power (gayle). His quote is just about OK to sell but I prefer to mix his sell with a buy of Woakes who looks good for a few points over his quote. Batting Ok and bowling well. He also moves up in the order as a slogger if his team is doing well. He also has a better catch ratio than Hales.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP. Although Klinger is no plodder, he has to take a back seat to Hales today who will again try to fire early. I think if he doesn't score freely he won't have made too many and hopefully he gets out. He was striking the ball in the middle of the bat last game but there are of course weaknesses in his game. For someone who never bowls and an average of 32, selling at 33 seems good especially against nannes and woakes who have good strike rates. I don't like this bet as much as the above hence the lower stake.

Klinger Performance Sell 33 - 37 Buy SELL @6PPP  -66
My Matchmakers: Hales Performance/Woakes Performance Sell -1 - 3 Buy SELL@8PPP +24

Running total +111.50 - 42= +69.5.

Got really unlucky here. I was freerolling on woakes and somehow they shuffled woakes (wrongly) down the order and may have lost because of it.

Today's bets.

Birt Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy SELL @ 8PPP. Same as last time but game was abandoned. Not proven at this level . His average is ten at t20i level and 23 even in domestic cricket. Easy sell as he never bowls.
Brisbane Heat Bigshots Sell 60 - 68 Buy BUY @7PPP. I like Kieswetter, Pomersbach and Christian. If Lynn could get six sixes at this ground (though I sold the bigshots of Scorchers at this ground), then this looks good for 4 sixes. These are all top order batsmen and a slow start/one wicket and it's likely a loss. But the upside is very big if we get in. I remember Kieswetter blasting four 6s for somerset this year.

it's raining sixes

Birt Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy SELL @ 8PPP +40
Brisbane Heat Bigshots Sell 60 - 68 Buy BUY @7PPP +749

69.5 + 789 = +858.50

Bopara Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy BUY @8PPP - Bowls all four and likely to bat. He'll never get 60 but could easily make up 45+ with a wicket and a small contribution. I don't rate the Sixers' top order (bought henriques last time) so he should get a bat. Huge fan of test players playing 2020. I'd be backing ali cook if he ever decided to play.

Lee Performance Sell 23 - 27 Buy BUY @8PPP - will obviously bowl all four and has a strike rate of a wicket every 19 balls (amazing). another test player who always brings it in 2020. He smashes the ball as well and could be moved up the order (even ahead of bop if sixers cruising but could similarly bat in the event of collapse. Looking for two wickets.

Bopara Performance Sell 32 - 36 Buy BUY @8PPP -88
Lee Performance Sell 23 - 27 Buy BUY @8PPP -216

-304. Running Total = +554.50

England vs Australia.

Not too much value but Carberry sticks out.

Carberry Runs Sell 60 - 67 Buy BUY @10PPP (higher stake as much variance). Huge carberry fan and his quote is low due to average scores. Carberry is playing for his place and I can see him coming up with the goods. His average is 30 even disappointing so with the huge upside of a massive score this is a no brainer. This test should be aggressive and high scoring.

Carberry Ton-Ups Sell 4 - 7 Buy BUY @6PPP SEE ABOVE

You can save a point by buying him at 304 for the series with Spreadex (238/4), so effectively paying 66 for the 5th test.

I'm fairly sure Spreadex don't give an allocation if Carberry were not to play in this test so you're taking a big risk for 1 point?  They can easily try Root opening again to accomodate Ballance.

Sigh, Dung is probably right, rumours are Carbs is dropped to accom Ballance.

Also a Carbs fan - gutted for him if so..... and as he's second in runs so far, gutted for my 20/1 e/w top Eng batsman  :(

Can't believe you made such a daft bet, but I doubt you were alone.......;)

They do, they allocate 66. Non runner, no risk.

Ah yes - you are correct.  They have changed it (I think) since last summer when most of their quotes were slightly below Spin due to the lack of allocation.

Rumour is Root dropped.......

Seems a strange one that - they seem very optimistic about Root for the future so thought they'd keep an eye on next year and pick him.