My Spread Betting Blog

[Phil_Magroin]

Bet 7

Mens 80kg Middleweight Taekwondo (Starts 8th August)

R.Azizov      SELL13 - 16BUY   
 
Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

BUY AZIZOV @ 8PPP

This is from a friend. What do I know about Men's Taekwondo. His only loss this year was to Aaron Cook who is the world number one (thought incredibly left out by Team GB). Apparently this guy can blitz or is cool under pressure. Taekwondo's Mayweather  

http://www.taekwondodata.de/ramin-azizov.aamj.html#top

Running Total +476.50 PTS

[ripple11]

Some very nice results so far.

I'm on Mr. Azizov.



PS ; Good to see 2 bronze medals ........he's fav to win, so it looks a bet with a good upside and a smallish downside if he only gets a bronze.

[TheChipPrince]

Playing devils advocate, but what makes him a better buy in the spreads than at a bookies at 10/3?

How do you weigh you the best option?

[Phil_Magroin]

Playing devils advocate, but what makes him a better buy in the spreads than at a bookies at 10/3?

How do you weigh you the best option?

Can't get on Paddy Power or certainly not this kind of exposure. Pinny are < 3-1 which I count as the true price.

Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

So we bought at 16 (it's now 17), so max loss is 16. We can win 50, 25, 10 and 10 (both bronzes awarded).

I have tried to crunch the numbers with a maths friend but even he says it's too complicated. He'd have to excel it and he doesn't have the time.

Gold Medal win = 50 = 34 point win. Max Loss (out of top 4) = 0. 34/16= 2.125-1. (c. 85/40).

The 10/3 is win or bust. This has a 34 point win, a 9 point win and two 6 point losses.

He is just above 2-1 to win with the Silver and Two Bronzes omitted. I wish I could actually prove that the odds would better 3-1 or 10/3 but sadly I can't!

[tikay]

Playing devils advocate, but what makes him a better buy in the spreads than at a bookies at 10/3?

How do you weigh you the best option?

Can't get on Paddy Power or certainly not this kind of exposure. Pinny are < 3-1 which I count as the true price.

Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

So we bought at 16 (it's now 17), so max loss is 16. We can win 50, 25, 10 and 10 (both bronzes awarded).

I have tried to crunch the numbers with a maths friend but even he says it's too complicated. He'd have to excel it and he doesn't have the time.

Gold Medal win = 50 = 34 point win. Max Loss (out of top 4) = 0. 34/16= 2.125-1. (c. 85/40).

The 10/3 is win or bust. This has a 34 point win, a 9 point win and two 6 point losses.

He is just above 2-1 to win with the Silver and Two Bronzes omitted. I wish I could actually prove that the odds would better 3-1 or 10/3 but sadly I can't!

MereNovice would be salivating at the prospect of working out that equation.....

[Phil_Magroin]

I hope not - he might prove me wrong!

[ripple11]

Bet 7

Mens 80kg Middleweight Taekwondo (Starts 8th August)

R.Azizov      SELL13 - 16BUY   
 
Gold Medal = 50pts, Silver Medal = 25pts, Bronze Medals = 10pts (2 awarded). All others = 0. Podium positions apply.

BUY AZIZOV @ 8PPP

This is from a friend. What do I know about Men's Taekwondo. His only loss this year was to Aaron Cook who is the world number one (thought incredibly left out by Team GB). Apparently this guy can blitz or is cool under pressure. Taekwondo's Mayweather  

http://www.taekwondodata.de/ramin-azizov.aamj.html#top

Running Total +476.50 PTS

I see Taekwondo starts tomorrow....and I think the 80kg is Friday.

Found an article that says he was leading throughout the fight with Aaron Cook...and actually a draw on points in the end, before Azizov was disqualified

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-2140096/Aaron-Cook-European-champion.html

[The Camel]

Selling GB Gold medals at 27 look fair to you?

I can't see much downside, I couldn't make the midpoint any higher than 26.5 or even 26.

24 looks infinitely more likely than 30 imo.

[maldini32]

Selling GB Gold medals at 27 look fair to you?

I can't see much downside, I couldn't make the midpoint any higher than 26.5 or even 26.

24 looks infinitely more likely than 30 imo.

What are the remaining realistic gold medal prospects?

[henrik777]

Selling GB Gold medals at 27 look fair to you?

I can't see much downside, I couldn't make the midpoint any higher than 26.5 or even 26.

24 looks infinitely more likely than 30 imo.

What are the remaining realistic gold medal prospects?

Dressage individual 3/7 inc fav.

Payne (swimming) Fav.

Reade (bmx) Fav.

Farah (5000m) Joint Fav.

Campbell (boxing) Semis 2nd fav.

Ogogo (boxing)  Semis 3rd fav.

Joshua (boxing) Semis Fav

Evans (boxing) Semis 3rd Fav

Nicola Adams (boxing) Final.

Ed McKeever (k1) Fav

Mens K2 2nd Fav

Mens Hockey (outsider but in semis)

Daley (diving) 2nd fav.

Mens 470 (sailing) h2h today for gold. Post. Fri.

Womens 470 h2h for gold.

Sarah Stevenson  (Taekwondo)

Sandy


Edit:-

Jade Jones  (Taekwondo) Final

[ripple11]

  Mr. Azizov gets through the first round........

[MahoganyVic]

Loving the noises he makes when he kicks!

[claypole]

Very tough first fight

[claypole]

He's evens - could close out now

[claypole]

And beaten by a random Italian