My Spread Betting Blog

[DungBeetle]

Hello Phil - this could be an excellent thread based on the Kallis write up and I look forward to reading it.

Will you be doing any long term football trades on season points?  Of course I can only go off the fixed odds at the moment but I think Leicester and Sheff Utd shouldn't be favourites in their divisions so I imagine I'll be selling them both.

[DungBeetle]

"Fourthly, there is the small chance of injury/rest (increased due to age). "

I think Spin give some kind of allocation per match when a player is absent.  Not sure what spreadex do in this regard though.

Looking forward to your NFL analysis when the time comes.

[Phil_Magroin]

very interesting first bet

FWIW its weather related too isn't it?

More rain, interrupted play = less runs all round, and less bowling for Kallis as Steyn/Philander/Morkel will take the overs. More catches in the slips too

Decent weather from next Thursday sees higher scores in the series, Kallis building innings', and him being required as the fifth bowler more

I gather the jetstream that has murdered our cricket summer clears off North after next Saturday, whether this leads to more favourable batting conditions (thus in my opinion putting the Kallis unders bet at risk) will be interesting to see  

Hi Tightend,

As stated, my focus is on the inter-related nature of the bets which I don't feel is fully incorporated into the price. I can't begin to predict the weather and must assume the predicted weather is factored in. I'm sure it will pour at some point!

[Phil_Magroin]

Hello Phil - this could be an excellent thread based on the Kallis write up and I look forward to reading it.

Will you be doing any long term football trades on season points?  Of course I can only go off the fixed odds at the moment but I think Leicester and Sheff Utd shouldn't be favourites in their divisions so I imagine I'll be selling them both.

Thanks for your feedback.

No long term football trades. The reason is because the team values are extremely well researched for the leagues offered. Every stat needed is out there and the prices aren't subject to corruption by fan money (as casual punters don't bet spreads). Since every match can be compiled accurately, an aggregate is not difficult. The only factors are transfers/manager exits and the possibility of teams falling off due to injuries/stamina (Blackpool/Swansea etc). I haven't been through SPIN's results but I'm sure they have an excellent strike rate of hitting bang in the middle of the margin. I can't comment on Leicester and Sheffield United atm although I will be posting football plays throughout the season.

[Phil_Magroin]

"Fourthly, there is the small chance of injury/rest (increased due to age). "

I think Spin give some kind of allocation per match when a player is absent.  Not sure what spreadex do in this regard though.

Looking forward to your NFL analysis when the time comes.

Fair enough. I suppose they are just slightly high on the bowling. In any event, on such a high line, I only need one thing to 'go wrong' to make some serious points.
One thing I didn't mention is that his expected average (which I slightly notched down) should not improve as the series continues. I.e. Added confidence for Kallis is not going to increase his potential. However, lack of confidence (as seen with Strauss, Bairstow) can be extremely detrimental to his scoring. This is especially the case against England as each bowler is able to bowl to plan and execute it better than the rest. Essentially, if Kallis struggles early, his expected average for each innings will decrease more than increase if he is playing well. This is just gambling theory - I may be wrong in this particular instance.

Re: NFL. I will be discussing player performances with two people in particular. One has a stats background and is an NFL nut; the other focuses specifically on match-ups (QB vs Safety, Safety vs WR) etc. Looking forward to it. For me it's Boxing > NFL > Football/Cricket >>> everything else.

[DungBeetle]

"I haven't been through SPIN's results but I'm sure they have an excellent strike rate of hitting bang in the middle of the margin."

This will definitely be true for the Premier League, but the other divisions I would be surprised if this is the case.  It isn't that rare for the teams ranked last in the spreads to finish very high up (just off the top of my head Watford the year they went up under Boothroyd, and Cheltenham in L2 last year but there will be numerous others).  For me the key is not doing too many bets as the 2 point spread will chew you up.

[millidonk]

Hands up who has recently opened a spread betting account. 

                                                                                   
Never actually done a 'spread bet' (is that even what they call it?), looking forward to coming along for the ride.

[DungBeetle]

Be careful my friend..........I've many a time had £500 lying in the account and had a drunken punt on 20 markets on an NFL match at what I considered low stakes and woken up with a hangover on the couch and discovered I had a debit balance of over a grand!

[Phil_Magroin]

Exactly. For every normal sportsbetting bad-beat story, a spread-betting one is ten times worse!

Selling total goal minutes in this match - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/03/20/spain/primera-division/futbol-club-barcelona/granada-club-de-futbol/1140917/ was not fun.

[millidonk]

I read the faqs and I'm sure it said you can set up stop lossses? Which I plan to do. Will be playing VERY small stakes for the foreseeable, just makes it more fun than paper trading to get started.

[pokerfan]

Any chance you can do an idiots guide to spread betting ?

[sweet potata!]

Any chance you can do an idiots guide to spread betting ?

+1

[smashedagain]

Any chance you can do an idiots guide to spread betting ?

+1

[Phil_Magroin]

I'm sure there are some on the internet but I wrote one myself for someone...

Spread betting is similar to shares in that you can ‘buy or sell’ You do this by placing bets above or below the set line. The line is comprised of a ‘buy figure’ and a ‘sell figure’ and the space in the middle is the juice/vig. The line can be anything from the amount of corners in a match, to the total of all the shirt numbers who score..to even a supremacy. Here is a brief breakdown of the key markets.

Major Spread firms: Sportingindex.com ; Extrabet.com ; Spreadex.com

Corners: Spread: 12.5-13.5..

You may buy corners at 13.5 and sell corners at 12.5. Some people think if it lands on 13 exactly, you lose all your money (NOT TRUE).

If I buy at £10 per corner @ 13.5...if the corner count is 15 corners I will make 15-13.5 = 1.5 x my stake = a profit of £15.

If I buy at £10 per corner at 13.5...if the corner count is 9 corners I will lose 9-13.5 = lose 4.5 x my stake = a loss of £45.

If I sell at £10 per corner at 12.5..if the corner count is 1, I will make 12.5-1 = 11.5 x my stake = £115

If I sell at £10 per corner at 12.5..if the corner count is 20, I will lose 20-12.5 = 7.5 x my stake = £75.

In short, you take the total from the buy or sell side (whatever you were doing) and all winnings losses are inclusive of stake as you win or lose x your stake.


Shirt Numbers: Spread: 44-47

This of course works on the same basic level. You add all the shirt number of goal scorers to find the result. The betting behind this is clearly related to lineups as is most betting, especially spreads (goal minutes etc)

Supremacy: Barcelona/Arsenal 0.56-0.68

This is literally as you know it, a straight up goal supremacy. The team mentioned first gives away an imagined handicap and you would buy or sell depending on your read of the game.

In this example..If I was to buy  Barcelona’s goal supremacy over Arsenal @ 0.68 and they won 2:1, I would win 1 goal minus 0.68 = 0.34 of a goal. I would win £34.

Similarly, if I was to sell Barcelona’s supremacy @ 0.56 and they won 4:0, I would lose 4-0.56x£100 = £344

[Phil_Magroin]

Regarding cricket player performance, as it says in the icon next to the player...

1pt per run
20 pts per wicket
10pts per catch
25pts stumping

Therefore Jacques Kallis' spread is 355-370

1) If you buy for £1 per point and he makes 450pts, you win 450-370=80 x £1=£80
2) If you buy for £1 per point and he makes 357pts, you lose 370-357=13 x £1 =£13
3) If you sell for £1 per point and he makes 600 pts, you lose 600-355=245 x£1 = £245
4) If you sell for £1 per point and he makes 235 pts, you win 355-235=120 x£1 = £120

You always buy from the buy side, sell from the sell side.