blonde poker forum

SO I played a kind of interesting hand the other day which has split a few of friends pretty equally, so I thought I'd share it with the blondes and see what everyone thinks.

$25/$50/$100 PLO

5 Handed - UTG (the weakest player at the table by a long way) opens to $300 playing $8.5k

Folds to me in the SB with  Ac Ahrt 6c 5h (loving it) I make it $1200 playing $17k

MB (Phrlard Friedman, who's extremely good) overcalls covering everyone

BB (Brian Rast, also really really good) overcalls as well playing ~$9k

UTG Calls

Flop ($4800)  2c 3c 3h

I bet $2800, PF makes it $6k, Brian Rast moves all in for $7,800.

Back to me I have $13.2k behind and EXACTLY $10k behind PF's bet, pot is now $21,400.

The games been pretty solid and I've been pretty quiet because I have a bad seat, I've shown a lot of respect to PF, and am clearly trying to navigate around playing pots with him, my strategy for the most part in the 5 handed lineup has been trying to freeze him and Rast out of pots and isolate the UTG which im sure PF is aware of (i.e he wont think im AA and AA only here) Brian Rast is multi-tabling this game and the $1k win the btn tourney so won't have any idea how the games been playing.

what you think?

Wow Dave that is such a tough spot and obviously way bigger than the games that I play but surely Rast has to have at least flopped trip 3's here as he's basically pushing buttons what with playing a few tables.

The thing is that you might very well be ahead of PF and you obviously have some outs whatever, but can you establish a favourable side-pot with him after Rast's shove as it seems unlikely that PF would call an overshove by you with anything that you are beating.

I'm afraid that it's a clear fold for me.

Just trying to get my head around the numbers......

If I imagine it's actually .50/1 and I'm sat 170 BBs deep it's a much easier problem to work out and as Ralph says seems like a pretty straight forward fold.

At these stakes though strange things can happen so I really don't know. Very tough spot that's for sure.

How many hands with a 3 in them can Rast really have? He's only 90 BBs deep so unless he's got 3456 or similar or maybe one of the other aces with a matching 3 would he really be calling off so much?

I'm going to stick with thinking that folding is the right idea but I don't know if I actually could. I'm a spew monkey though and would be confident of hitting another Ace if necessary.

Threads one big I sat with  X & Y brag. Pitty you hooked two very nice people. Next you will be in a srslysirius video chilling by a pool with 50cent, a bunch of hoes and a couple of Shetland ponies.

lol trust me id really rather they'd have been sat at a table in the hustler having tits rubbed in their face then both directly on my left, in fact id have bought them both a dance.

What you make off PFs raise size ?

lol. Game selections all wrong in my opinion. Need more Sam Grizzle pha.

It's pretty sharky/stnd because he can be bluffing, whereas much bigger and he'll prolly be defo calling off when i jam. IDK if he actually IS bluffing here ever on this board with two people with Pot Sized bets behind him (like 556 he's way more likely to be bluffing) bu if he ever was bluffing I'm sure he'd used this raise size, after all i'm never folding AA with the nfd to just his raise on the flop so really his sizing on the flop isn't going to affect my reaction too much most of the time it's just either i have a hand to jam or I don't. This is the only raise size I could beam all in over "light" though.

In actual fact I would never 3bet jam this flop "light" ever and he prolly knows that but still there's no need to go for any other raise size in this spot - the main reason why a pot raise otf might be good is cos you can better rep the NFD but that's not too much of a worry here cos there's a high chance once i 3bet the flop and cbet that I have that card in my hand.

If 2 ppl have PSB left, what do you think of checking the flop and seeing what's happening when it comes back around to you?

Alternatively betting 1k?

Well, the pot is $4.8k otf and BR has ~$8k and the other guy has $7k~ at the time I though it was just an auto lead as I can get in it comfortably vs anyone and would have a b/f fold range here as well. what action am I realistically fold to otf, if BR pots and UTG ships then I still think i need to get it in, and given there is an EP opener (5hnded admittedly) and 2 overcalls there isn't realistically going to be too many 3's knocking about so I think it'll get checked through quite a bit as I really cant see Rast or UTG just bangin git in with nothing and I think PF pretty unlikely to stab completely airballing when two guys can get it in behind.

It's not the worst board in the world to get checked through mind, although I think can miss out on a ton of value considering I have a really easy flop call or 3b jam vs PF.

That being said I can't come up with any reasons why it wouldn't be a good play to check the flop, I chose my betsize because it's roughly 45% of the UTG's stack, PF and BR likely to notice this and I think it makes a bit of a difference cos it looks like im setting up a ship over the UTG all in.

Obv PF betting and BR shipping is the abso nut low result on the flop. What you do now Karly?

Wow sick spot u put ur self into here! I take it this is online ? Once utg raises an PF flats I guess they both goin call ur 3 bet from sb 9/10 so don't like it now u have inflated the pot pre when its odds on they will call especially as B rast cold calls from bb it's now 100% the other 2 will call with a nice juicy pot formed. Did u consider just flatting pre or was you comfortable to reraise out of postion against these 2 players as you probaly didn't think the bb would tag along?

Mash it in.

Can only be good for the game.

The more I read hands like this, the more I think my fold in St Kitts was absoltely standard!

As someone having played <300 PLO hands lifetime - this is quite clearly a jam!  :D  - if nothing else there are loooaadddssss of aces left in the deck!

Now we're talking my language :P


You've mis-read the HH i think big C, UTG opens to $300 and I make it $1200 in the SB (there are three mandatory blinds in this game) so the only person to have voluntarily entered the pot at this stage in the UTG player who is the weaker player and only PF has more than 100 big blinds - seems like a abso mandatory 3bet to me as I am going to  force PF and BR out of the pot most of the time and get to play vs the UTG with 2.5x the pot back and a super magnum hand.

Sure PF knows I have a super sick hand and we're 17k deep and he's IP but it would be pretty suicidal of him to come along with a bad hand just to try spite get there against me when he knows the pot is a lock to be 3way and he isn't closing the action.

This being said though a few people have said I should flat pre-flop and if UTG or BR was covering me I would have defo flatted, but in reality all i need to do is get through PF and I have a really easy hand to play post-flop, even if Rast overcalls from the BB.  I guess as well my hand is going to play pretty good from the SB as i have a good stack to c/r vs BR and UTG on lots of flops.

ahhh ok that changes things ! Is this Live ?

You are sb , Brian rast bb who's the 100 ? PF is cutoff? As this is 5 handed there 3 blinds so basically just button I has passed?

5 handed table, and there are three blinds.

I am the SB ($25)
Freidman in the MB 9($50)
Brian Rast in the BB ($100)
The UTG player (also the cutoff 5 handed) has opened and the player on the btn has folded.

This is live.

Snap fold in that case.

If you go allin for your remaining 13k and get called by PF there is 47400 in the pot. 13000/47400*100 = 27%. You have like 35% vs 3xxx and PF is semi bluff/folding a none zero % of the time. At the risk of repeating myself, I'm not folding for all the camels in China.

I'm quite surprised that you think there is no chance of PF folding if Dave shoves.

Nah that's not what I said. There is a none 0% chance PF is semi/bluff folding vs Dave and calling off vs the rest, meaning that some of the time he will fold if Dave shoves.

Can we have more input on the hand from you Dave? U have to be drawing very thin in this spot but I've known to be wrong on numerous occasions.

It's always best in these spots to start off with your calculations assuming a zero% fold as you get the very bottom of your figures and can go from there, for example if we were to find that we can still show a profit vs a 0% bet/fold then there is no need to calculate any further, if we dont then we can start to work up and see what % of folds we need to start seeing a profit.

I think it's really close and it really does depend all on PF and this is where i was struggling in game.
This would need a lot more work to be properly solved because the combo's of 3*** that are out there are pretty thin, but starting with the worst case scenario.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional) (http://'http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle')
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
PLAYER_3 3***
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|3%2A%2A%2A|3%2A%2A%2A|AcAh6c5h&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C40&chxr=1%2C0%2C40&chs=400x125&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A22%2E0137%2C39%2E0108%2C38%2E9756&chma=|10)

If they both have 3*** then we're really struggling, and also most hands in their range which include 3's are likely to block our equity, 3457, AKJ3 etc don't see either of them showing up with J863 single suited or anything so grim. I thought at the time, and still do that Rast's range is almost exclusively 3's (he might have a hand like AK45 with a king high suit or something like that a very small%) this has too affects on the hand firstly it  gives me a really easy "best case" scenario for the hand, which we can work out in game pretty easily

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional) (http://'http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle')
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|3%2A%2A%2A|AcAh6c5h&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C68&chxr=1%2C0%2C68&chs=400x95&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A32%2E1562%2C67%2E8438&chma=|10)

If we go all in and PF folds (defo the best scenario for us) then we have 32% equity against Rast obviously with PF's 6k overlay that's great.

If we go all in and get called by PF we need 27% equity as Rob has said so if they both have 3's then we're losing money, so really the whole argument bases onto
i) How often PF is folding
ii) What hands PF can bet/call that aren't 3***

How often is PF folding is basically the same question as how often is he bluffing, he certainly COULD be bluffing and its ever the more possible once Rast goes all in and very likely to hold a 3, but thinking about his overcall range pre-flop (defo tighter than Rast's) most of it is mid strength run downs and broadway hands - 5689, JT86ds, KQT8ds and very very little of it has connected with this board in a manner that would make a good semi-bluff, 4567 certainly one but i dont see him calling A456 or a hand like that, nor do i see him doing anything but folding a naked flush draw on this board with the two shorter stacks behind him. In game certainly I felt like PF was raise/folding close to never and was likely to just be very strong (i.e. had a three)

The second point is also thin but it;s basically what does he do with OP and FD's. I'm not sure how wide he'd 4bet preflop (he isn't sat there thinking I have only AA as I said in the OP i've been going all out to isolate the UTG player all game with PF and BR two directly on my left I've been playing tighter than i usually would 5handed nad basically working for spots to freeze those two out of pots and play pots vs the other two players) part of me thinks he just 4bet good kings and magnum QQ (if they had an ACE) and the other part of me thinks he'll flat everything and make me play OOP post flop with a kind of messy spr, i think now having played a lot more with him he'd prolly do the latter. This leaves all OP and FD combo's he'll overcall pre-flop (not that many at all fwiw)  in his range and it's just how he reacts with them on the flop...

If he has say QQJT with clubs he's in a tricky spot because whereas i dont have 100% AA preflop I always have a very strong/premium hand because i never 3bet anything i wont call all-in vs the UTG with and once him and BR overcall that prolly takes the abso misses out of my range to cbet, if i had a hand like KQJTds or AKQTds with no clubs (ie something with abso zero equity vs BR and UTG - both of whom have stacks to shove on me) i'd likely just give it up here so i'm pretty strong at this point I could actually see him folding those hands but also think he's pretty likely to 6k/call with them as well. Basically if (once he raises) he has 3*** half the time and OP/FD the other half he obviously raises 3*** 100% and might fold the other hands some %.

He only overcalls very strong paired hands preflop though because of how strong and high care heavy my range is. He'll fold 5588 with clubs easily here for e.g. imo

This was my thought process in game and it lead me to fold. If i'm right about all this then I think folding is certainly the best play, however these are the main points.

1) Rast has a 3 close to 100%
2) PF is Bet/folding very infrequently
3) PF bet.call range is predominantly 3's
4) PF overcalls only magnum QQ and very strong KK preflop

What i really want is for someone to pick these decisions apart a bit, as it really doesn't take much sway from one of them to make it a spot you can go all in and show a decent profit.

Also, further thoughts on Karl's suggestion of checking the flop?

it's interesting, you have both NFD, so presume its more likely to be the flopped house, or 3 with overs! I think the ranges of 3XXX can easily include a 2 here, plus no 3XXX is folding!
at lower stakes I can see people showing up with  4c 5c sometimes not so sure at this level?
simply put I would always call in game :) and fold if I had a zillion seconds in the time bank :)

I think its extremely unlikely that anyone has a house atm, remember both the blinds have over-called a 3bet preflop, the relevance of this is that they are committing 12 big blinds with the action still open, the UTG player could very easily be 4betting so the range of hands they call pre-flop is a lot stronger (it's not too outragous to say that PF's range pre-flop isn't much weaker than my 3betting range) so there are very very few combo's of hands which have 32 in them - in fact I might go as far as to say there are none with these two players.

A double paired hand with 22 in it is really the only possible full house on the flop imo (QQ22 etc) but Rast will call those hands pre-flop with a much higher frequency than PF, PF won't be calling many double paired hands with 22 in it in this spot with his stack, once PF has called Rast will very likely call a lot of dbl pairs.

mmm I mean defo possible yh the bigger question really is what 4c 5c combo's he can realistically have. AK45 with A and 5 high suits seems like a horrible horrible over call pre-flop.

The difference between the levels isn't really that people go all in lighter at lower stakes (opposite is prolly true) but more that very good players at this level won't have bad hands too often, or at least won't get themselves pot stuck with marginal hands in iffy spots hardly ever, which is where a lot of weaker PLo players make mistakes

I'm really struggling to b/f this you are getting f'ed in the  Aspades if they don't both have exclusively 3xxx 100% of the time.

Is Rast really folding combo rundowns and QQ+fd with 1/2 a psb left knowing he's getting hu almost always? Is PF not capable of raise folding something that isn't 3xx and calling off vs the rest, knowing that you have to fold everything but a 3 and the hand you have and knowing that you're cbet/calling any remote equity vs the other two?

This is the part where you tell me they both flipped over full houses.

mbe Dave likes it in his  Aspades s

What KK's does Rast call but not ship pre-flop, and what QQ's does he call preflop, the rundown combo's are A45* and 345* and there aren't all that many of those either. Pf defo can be r/f but needs to be a hand with some equity against the players behind and there just didn't seem that many of them he overcalls preflop.

I think 556/566/667 it's way way easier to be going all in even though the combo's of trips they can have is a lot higher

Play deeper games, you crazy kids at the Bellagio and your love of playing 'high stakes' with 100bb, just sit in 10-25 and play 10k deep and play some poker!

was 11th on the list for the 9 10-25 plo tables running at the time tho...

This is why I can't win as much an as often as I used to with human brings of this intelligence having this thought process in their mind. How can u ever check the flop unless you are intending to check jam which would be an interesting line?As surely check folding is terrible an check raising also not far behind so betting out perhaps is where u get the most info but check jamming would take out all the stress of deciding what to do but perhaps if PF bets an the BR raises it could be easy to just check fold?

tbh never even considered chking but if i were to check it would defo be with the intention of chk/jamming over any bet and folding only if there is mental action - tbh i think the only action you can c/f to is PF betting and both short stacks jamming as once i've checked they would now jam over a PF bet with any OP/FD (UTG will have a lot more big pair combo's than Rast and PF)

Not the worst board to see checked through either tbh, still prefer betting though as can't really provide a "GREAT" reason to chk other than to analyse the action and to induce lighter stab but i think it's the wrong kind of texture for that personally

Correct !

Results.

I fold, PF called (ofc) they ran it twice the first one ran out 7x Kx and the second one ran out Tx Qc and Brian Rast turned over K973ds and won both.

I never got to find out what PF had although there was a conversation regarding the hand that went on 20minutes later where he sort of claimed a 3 but he could defo have been mis-leading us there.

How would you all interpret how the results of this information affect my reads and thought process during the hand?

Think u know u made the right fold irrelevant of their holdings an I stil feel its pretty obvious u were drawing thin. Even if you do the reckless play of jamming an getting PF to fold flop with no side pot to gain u just throwing money away as you only ever get to build a side pot if the guys a fish or you drawing literally dead so well played I guess!

Dont know if my mindset is wrong but playing theses stakes an whether u are winning or not may have a different approach to how u played theses aces in PLO as I said it was snap fold in earlier posts as played an if you choose to not rerasie pre it would of been an even snappier fold!  One thing thats bugs me is that if im losing in this game i def rerasing as my range is more as wide so your hand strength wont be so obvious but if u winning in this game under repping your hand will def be proftible? just shows u though that when u rerasie here that ur range is going to be quite tight from your postion an theses guys will play k973 I guess it was double suited! To try to win a big pot as players tend to find passing aces hard on paired boards at times especially 22 or 33 boards!

I think I was level although that honestly wouldnt have affected me too much if at all I'm not really one for chasing loses too hard.

I don't think it's a snap fold under any circumstances I think it's really really close and it's defo not a simple stove spot either cos it's got a lot of complex variables to it.

Posted the hand on Galfonds new "Runitonce" training site (very good would recommend) I know Brian posts on there and he responded to the hand, here's what he said (he defo agree's more with Rob's assumption about their ranges - specifically PF's - than mine)

I remember this hand actually =)

1) I don't think Prahlad is ever raise/folding to you. If UTG & me folded, and you jammed, the pot would have about 27k, and prahlad would have to call 10k more. Prahlad needs 27% to call vs that range. I think the bottom of his range is hands that he's raising with the plan to continue vs. you heads up, but will fold if me or UTG put our money in, and then you overjam for your stack. These hands would be hands like 456x, QQxx w/ clubs, KKxx w/ clubs, A45, 7745 ... these hands play well against your range (which almost never has 3s)... and it's a spot he might get you to fold hands that have good equity vs him (AAxx w/out clubs). These are hands that equity is very bad in a spot where he's up against (most likely) a 3 and Aces/Kings with clubs.
2) vs you, pretty close to 100% i think, in a spot where one of us (me or UTG) jams, and you rejam ... I think his range of overcalls will be essentially only 3s ... with you blocking the Ac & the 5c (so he can't have 45c) ... i can't think of many club-wrap hands he's going to raise, then call when action is 3 ways back to him.
3) I don't think I have to have a 3. If I had kings with clubs, 456x with at least 1 club or hearts, A245... i'm probably shipping all those hands, and maybe a few more I'm not thinking of atm. That's not many hands really (as many KK combos I'd shove pre), A245 very specific, etc... So I have a 3 a rather large portion of the time.

I personally think that with your hand given the action... I'd ship it, and it's not super close imo. You're actually 34.4% vs 3***, and the person who's a lot more likely to have a 3 is me. If you shove and prahlad folds, then you are putting in 5.2k to win 21.5k... which you have direct odds to do vs me unless I already have a boat (and you do as I've shown vs 3*** which includes that possibility already... your hand is actually 40% vs 3456 which blocks your straight!). And since I'm very likely to have a 3, prahlad isn't as likely to have a 3 (and more likely to have a hand he wants to iso against your range, or get you to fold, and 25.4% vs 3*** & 3*** anyways if we both happen to have a 3). So I think given how much is already in the pot, you need to be going with this hand.

Also from a theoretical perspective, this is going towards the top of your range (and basically the top of your range for non-3 hands, which is the vast majority of your range), and if prahlad and I are going to be balancing our ranges out by including (prahlad much more than me in this spot given stacks and situation) ... then theoretically it's good for you to be putting this in. i.e., I think prahlad will have a decent # of hands he folds after you reshove.... as listed above when i answer 1)