PLO Hand

[Skgv]

You are sb , Brian rast bb who's the 100 ? PF is cutoff? As this is 5 handed there 3 blinds so basically just button I has passed?

[SuuPRlim]

You are sb , Brian rast bb who's the 100 ? PF is cutoff? As this is 5 handed there 3 blinds so basically just button I has passed?

5 handed table, and there are three blinds.

I am the SB ($25)
Freidman in the MB 9($50)
Brian Rast in the BB ($100)
The UTG player (also the cutoff 5 handed) has opened and the player on the btn has folded.

This is live.

[Skgv]

You are sb , Brian rast bb who's the 100 ? PF is cutoff? As this is 5 handed there 3 blinds so basically just button I has passed?

5 handed table, and there are three blinds.

I am the SB ($25)
Freidman in the MB 9($50)
Brian Rast in the BB ($100)
The UTG player (also the cutoff 5 handed) has opened and the player on the btn has folded.

This is live.

Snap fold in that case.

[Patonius2000]

If you go allin for your remaining 13k and get called by PF there is 47400 in the pot. 13000/47400*100 = 27%. You have like 35% vs 3xxx and PF is semi bluff/folding a none zero % of the time. At the risk of repeating myself, I'm not folding for all the camels in China.

[Karabiner]

If you go allin for your remaining 13k and get called by PF there is 47400 in the pot. 13000/47400*100 = 27%. You have like 35% vs 3xxx and PF is semi bluff/folding a none zero % of the time. At the risk of repeating myself, I'm not folding for all the camels in China.

I'm quite surprised that you think there is no chance of PF folding if Dave shoves.

[Patonius2000]

If you go allin for your remaining 13k and get called by PF there is 47400 in the pot. 13000/47400*100 = 27%. You have like 35% vs 3xxx and PF is semi bluff/folding a none zero % of the time. At the risk of repeating myself, I'm not folding for all the camels in China.

I'm quite surprised that you think there is no chance of PF folding if Dave shoves.

Nah that's not what I said. There is a none 0% chance PF is semi/bluff folding vs Dave and calling off vs the rest, meaning that some of the time he will fold if Dave shoves.

[Skgv]

Can we have more input on the hand from you Dave? U have to be drawing very thin in this spot but I've known to be wrong on numerous occasions.

[SuuPRlim]

If you go allin for your remaining 13k and get called by PF there is 47400 in the pot. 13000/47400*100 = 27%. You have like 35% vs 3xxx and PF is semi bluff/folding a none zero % of the time. At the risk of repeating myself, I'm not folding for all the camels in China.

I'm quite surprised that you think there is no chance of PF folding if Dave shoves.

Nah that's not what I said. There is a none 0% chance PF is semi/bluff folding vs Dave and calling off vs the rest, meaning that some of the time he will fold if Dave shoves.

It's always best in these spots to start off with your calculations assuming a zero% fold as you get the very bottom of your figures and can go from there, for example if we were to find that we can still show a profit vs a 0% bet/fold then there is no need to calculate any further, if we dont then we can start to work up and see what % of folds we need to start seeing a profit.

[SuuPRlim]

Can we have more input on the hand from you Dave? U have to be drawing very thin in this spot but I've known to be wrong on numerous occasions.

I think it's really close and it really does depend all on PF and this is where i was struggling in game.
This would need a lot more work to be properly solved because the combo's of 3*** that are out there are pretty thin, but starting with the worst case scenario.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
PLAYER_3 3***
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity


If they both have 3*** then we're really struggling, and also most hands in their range which include 3's are likely to block our equity, 3457, AKJ3 etc don't see either of them showing up with J863 single suited or anything so grim. I thought at the time, and still do that Rast's range is almost exclusively 3's (he might have a hand like AK45 with a king high suit or something like that a very small%) this has too affects on the hand firstly it  gives me a really easy "best case" scenario for the hand, which we can work out in game pretty easily

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity


If we go all in and PF folds (defo the best scenario for us) then we have 32% equity against Rast obviously with PF's 6k overlay that's great.

If we go all in and get called by PF we need 27% equity as Rob has said so if they both have 3's then we're losing money, so really the whole argument bases onto
i) How often PF is folding
ii) What hands PF can bet/call that aren't 3***

How often is PF folding is basically the same question as how often is he bluffing, he certainly COULD be bluffing and its ever the more possible once Rast goes all in and very likely to hold a 3, but thinking about his overcall range pre-flop (defo tighter than Rast's) most of it is mid strength run downs and broadway hands - 5689, JT86ds, KQT8ds and very very little of it has connected with this board in a manner that would make a good semi-bluff, 4567 certainly one but i dont see him calling A456 or a hand like that, nor do i see him doing anything but folding a naked flush draw on this board with the two shorter stacks behind him. In game certainly I felt like PF was raise/folding close to never and was likely to just be very strong (i.e. had a three)

The second point is also thin but it;s basically what does he do with OP and FD's. I'm not sure how wide he'd 4bet preflop (he isn't sat there thinking I have only AA as I said in the OP i've been going all out to isolate the UTG player all game with PF and BR two directly on my left I've been playing tighter than i usually would 5handed nad basically working for spots to freeze those two out of pots and play pots vs the other two players) part of me thinks he just 4bet good kings and magnum QQ (if they had an ACE) and the other part of me thinks he'll flat everything and make me play OOP post flop with a kind of messy spr, i think now having played a lot more with him he'd prolly do the latter. This leaves all OP and FD combo's he'll overcall pre-flop (not that many at all fwiw)  in his range and it's just how he reacts with them on the flop...

If he has say QQJT with clubs he's in a tricky spot because whereas i dont have 100% AA preflop I always have a very strong/premium hand because i never 3bet anything i wont call all-in vs the UTG with and once him and BR overcall that prolly takes the abso misses out of my range to cbet, if i had a hand like KQJTds or AKQTds with no clubs (ie something with abso zero equity vs BR and UTG - both of whom have stacks to shove on me) i'd likely just give it up here so i'm pretty strong at this point I could actually see him folding those hands but also think he's pretty likely to 6k/call with them as well. Basically if (once he raises) he has 3*** half the time and OP/FD the other half he obviously raises 3*** 100% and might fold the other hands some %.

He only overcalls very strong paired hands preflop though because of how strong and high care heavy my range is. He'll fold 5588 with clubs easily here for e.g. imo

This was my thought process in game and it lead me to fold. If i'm right about all this then I think folding is certainly the best play, however these are the main points.

1) Rast has a 3 close to 100%
2) PF is Bet/folding very infrequently
3) PF bet.call range is predominantly 3's
4) PF overcalls only magnum QQ and very strong KK preflop

What i really want is for someone to pick these decisions apart a bit, as it really doesn't take much sway from one of them to make it a spot you can go all in and show a decent profit.

Also, further thoughts on Karl's suggestion of checking the flop?

[Oxford_HRV]

it's interesting, you have both NFD, so presume its more likely to be the flopped house, or 3 with overs! I think the ranges of 3XXX can easily include a 2 here, plus no 3XXX is folding!
at lower stakes I can see people showing up with  sometimes not so sure at this level?
simply put I would always call in game and fold if I had a zillion seconds in the time bank

[SuuPRlim]

I think its extremely unlikely that anyone has a house atm, remember both the blinds have over-called a 3bet preflop, the relevance of this is that they are committing 12 big blinds with the action still open, the UTG player could very easily be 4betting so the range of hands they call pre-flop is a lot stronger (it's not too outragous to say that PF's range pre-flop isn't much weaker than my 3betting range) so there are very very few combo's of hands which have 32 in them - in fact I might go as far as to say there are none with these two players.

A double paired hand with 22 in it is really the only possible full house on the flop imo (QQ22 etc) but Rast will call those hands pre-flop with a much higher frequency than PF, PF won't be calling many double paired hands with 22 in it in this spot with his stack, once PF has called Rast will very likely call a lot of dbl pairs.

[SuuPRlim]

at lower stakes I can see people showing up with  sometimes not so sure at this level?

mmm I mean defo possible yh the bigger question really is what combo's he can realistically have. AK45 with A and 5 high suits seems like a horrible horrible over call pre-flop.

The difference between the levels isn't really that people go all in lighter at lower stakes (opposite is prolly true) but more that very good players at this level won't have bad hands too often, or at least won't get themselves pot stuck with marginal hands in iffy spots hardly ever, which is where a lot of weaker PLo players make mistakes

[Patonius2000]

I'm really struggling to b/f this you are getting f'ed in the  if they don't both have exclusively 3xxx 100% of the time.

Is Rast really folding combo rundowns and QQ+fd with 1/2 a psb left knowing he's getting hu almost always? Is PF not capable of raise folding something that isn't 3xx and calling off vs the rest, knowing that you have to fold everything but a 3 and the hand you have and knowing that you're cbet/calling any remote equity vs the other two?

This is the part where you tell me they both flipped over full houses.

[titaniumbean]

mbe Dave likes it in his   s

[SuuPRlim]

I'm really struggling to b/f this you are getting f'ed in the  if they don't both have exclusively 3xxx 100% of the time.

Is Rast really folding combo rundowns and QQ+fd with 1/2 a psb left knowing he's getting hu almost always? Is PF not capable of raise folding something that isn't 3xx and calling off vs the rest, knowing that you have to fold everything but a 3 and the hand you have and knowing that you're cbet/calling any remote equity vs the other two?

This is the part where you tell me they both flipped over full houses.

What KK's does Rast call but not ship pre-flop, and what QQ's does he call preflop, the rundown combo's are A45* and 345* and there aren't all that many of those either. Pf defo can be r/f but needs to be a hand with some equity against the players behind and there just didn't seem that many of them he overcalls preflop.

I think 556/566/667 it's way way easier to be going all in even though the combo's of trips they can have is a lot higher