Can we have more input on the hand from you Dave? U have to be drawing very thin in this spot but I've known to be wrong on numerous occasions.
I think it's really close and it really does depend all on PF and this is where i was struggling in game.
This would need a lot more work to be properly solved because the combo's of 3*** that are out there are pretty thin, but starting with the worst case scenario.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
PLAYER_3 3***
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
If they both have 3*** then we're really struggling, and also most hands in their range which include 3's are likely to block our equity, 3457, AKJ3 etc don't see either of them showing up with J863 single suited or anything so grim. I thought at the time, and still do that Rast's range is almost exclusively 3's (he might have a hand like AK45 with a king high suit or something like that a very small%) this has too affects on the hand firstly it gives me a really easy "best case" scenario for the hand, which we can work out in game pretty easily
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 2c3h3c
PLAYER_1 AcAh6c5h
PLAYER_2 3***
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
If we go all in and PF folds (defo the best scenario for us) then we have 32% equity against Rast obviously with PF's 6k overlay that's great.
If we go all in and get called by PF we need 27% equity as Rob has said so if they both have 3's then we're losing money, so really the whole argument bases onto
i) How often PF is folding
ii) What hands PF can bet/call that aren't 3***
How often is PF folding is basically the same question as how often is he bluffing, he certainly COULD be bluffing and its ever the more possible once Rast goes all in and very likely to hold a 3, but thinking about his overcall range pre-flop (defo tighter than Rast's) most of it is mid strength run downs and broadway hands - 5689, JT86ds, KQT8ds and very very little of it has connected with this board in a manner that would make a good semi-bluff, 4567 certainly one but i dont see him calling A456 or a hand like that, nor do i see him doing anything but folding a naked flush draw on this board with the two shorter stacks behind him. In game certainly I felt like PF was raise/folding close to never and was likely to just be very strong (i.e. had a three)
The second point is also thin but it;s basically what does he do with OP and FD's. I'm not sure how wide he'd 4bet preflop (he isn't sat there thinking I have only AA as I said in the OP i've been going all out to isolate the UTG player all game with PF and BR two directly on my left I've been playing tighter than i usually would 5handed nad basically working for spots to freeze those two out of pots and play pots vs the other two players) part of me thinks he just 4bet good kings and magnum QQ (if they had an ACE) and the other part of me thinks he'll flat everything and make me play OOP post flop with a kind of messy spr, i think now having played a lot more with him he'd prolly do the latter. This leaves all OP and FD combo's he'll overcall pre-flop (not that many at all fwiw) in his range and it's just how he reacts with them on the flop...
If he has say QQJT with clubs he's in a tricky spot because whereas i dont have 100% AA preflop I always have a very strong/premium hand because i never 3bet anything i wont call all-in vs the UTG with and once him and BR overcall that prolly takes the abso misses out of my range to cbet, if i had a hand like KQJTds or AKQTds with no clubs (ie something with abso zero equity vs BR and UTG - both of whom have stacks to shove on me) i'd likely just give it up here so i'm pretty strong at this point I could actually see him folding those hands but also think he's pretty likely to 6k/call with them as well. Basically if (once he raises) he has 3*** half the time and OP/FD the other half he obviously raises 3*** 100% and might fold the other hands some %.
He only overcalls very strong paired hands preflop though because of how strong and high care heavy my range is. He'll fold 5588 with clubs easily here for e.g. imo
This was my thought process in game and it lead me to fold. If i'm right about all this then I think folding is certainly the best play, however these are the main points.
1) Rast has a 3 close to 100%
2) PF is Bet/folding very infrequently
3) PF bet.call range is predominantly 3's
4) PF overcalls only magnum QQ and very strong KK preflop
What i really want is for someone to pick these decisions apart a bit, as it really doesn't take much sway from one of them to make it a spot you can go all in and show a decent profit.
Also, further thoughts on Karl's suggestion of checking the flop?
This is why I can't win as much an as often as I used to with human brings of this intelligence having this thought process in their mind. How can u ever check the flop unless you are intending to check jam which would be an interesting line?As surely check folding is terrible an check raising also not far behind so betting out perhaps is where u get the most info but check jamming would take out all the stress of deciding what to do but perhaps if PF bets an the BR raises it could be easy to just check fold?
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