blonde poker forum

First of all a bit of background to help with my image:

I start day 2 with 155k. This was a bit above average from the live day 1's, but the onlines have skewed things slightly and I think the average was about 170k. The very first hand plays itself and I find myself up to 270k.  Apart from that I was pretty inactive.  I folded to one SB v BB 2.5 raise and also to one or two btn/co raises.

I also laid down  7h 8d to a short stack 'stop go' 50k shove into a threeway pot of about 42k on my BB. The board was  8h 9h Jd.  I commented I was being nitty, but also have a very good handle on the shorties ranges as he plays in my local game.  The pot cost me very little and I feel the lay down will help my image later on (before Herbie shouts collusion!)

So all in all I think I have shown nit tendencies ;-)

The hand

I'd like to try and develop the PHA one street at a time....

Blinds 3k/6k a1k (8 handed)

63 places paid - about 70 left (Average stack is about 205k)

Folds around to SB (Jamie Sykes). He has been fairly active and playing out of about 500k....he raises to 16k

jjandellis  (240k stack)  Aspades Th

Pre-flop Questions:

1. What do you think Jamie's range is here?

2. Does this range look fair:

22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q6s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K4o+,Q6o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o

3. Do you:

a. Fold
b. Flat
c. 3 bet (if so, what do you do in face of 4bet etc)
d. Huge overshove

**If Jamie could give his angle on things I'd really appreciate it!

100% flat

I'd ask him to move his fore arms so I could see his stack then i'd announce 'PEEL'

Also, as far as range goes I would suspect he will be much wider.

There is no decision to do anything other than flat

Folding in position, terrible hand far too strong bvb
3b folding, terrible - turned a strong BvB hand into a bluff - more value from flatting
3b peeling doesn't work - 16k - 38k - 80k - pot sized bet behind
3b to 5b is just a punt with 40 bigs in this really soft tournament and so close to the money although he is going to give you a very strong range with the 5b and probably only call off AQs TT+


As to his range very close to 100% given your history on the table

Mostly flatting in position, but if he's aggro, chipped up, and youre expecting a 4 bet then a 5 bet shove looks good to me too, id keep raise size smaller (to around 28-30k), likely to leave a good shoving stack with fold equity if we get 4 bet. Looks so strong close to the.bubble which should tighten his calling range

Makes it a snap shove/3b then imo

Shove +Cev at a guess, be very surprised if not.

3b/call might be ok, but very dependant on Jamie's knowledge of you.

Flat always an option but I'd be pretty aware I'll be getting the clip on the bubble.

im pretty sure (like 99%) that you should 3b/fold vs him in this spot. But in a vacuum vs normal opponents you should call.

How can 3b/f ever be better than flatting?

Yeah not a fan of 3b/f at all.

If 3bing its only to 5b jam and this totally depends on how often im expecting him to 4b.

Just call.

I can guarantee in this spot, 3b/f is the best line and 3b/calling would be bad. It totally depends on how good you think you are post flop, but Jamie is good and can hand read well and put you into trouble post flop. Pre flop he will play v tight vs our 3bet.

Again, not recommending this in a vacuum.

We got that position thing brah. Very comfortable flatting this vs anyone in the world 40bb deep

if ti was me in the hand, then i would call, but its op and hes asking whats the best line for him in this hand.

i dont think its close btw.

If Jamie opens 63.5% (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o)
Calls 10.2% (66+,22,A9s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo Bit wide?)

16% calling range

(http://i50.tinypic.com/20kvuxv.png)

Something seems a bit off but i cant see where tbh. Not sure I'd want to smash too much in though, but nice to see if correct.

I am confused if we have the right person here, but you have said he was opening very active & he wasn't when I was on the table. He hardly played anything, probably the easiest set of blinds to go through.  I think I saw him play about 2 hands...

I'm 3b personally

Viewed as a nit who hasn't played a hand, jamming is going to be +cEV but not the most profitable play.

We're IP.

If you feel really unsure about playing in position in a blind v blind situation with AT here then I can agree with Pleno and would 3b large with the intention of folding, not giving him room to 4b/fold on the bubble. Something huge like 48k and folding. Don't want to go small and induce a 4b when your number one objective is to mincash ... Don't recommend that strategy with 40 bigs on the bubble of one of these tournament but different discussion

this is wrong/very flawed, you are passive/nitty image and you 3bet. with the greatest of respect, hes more likely to sigh fold and tighten his range than overadjust aggressively as simply he will think you are a live fish/punter and not a guy who would study this spot in detail later. Hope this comes across the way it is intended (which is why i suggested 3b/fold initially)

But anyway, if your logic is that he will 4b 100% then its a no brianer, you think he's opening and 4betting 60%, well its an extremely easy 3b/5b and it wouldn't be close at all.



he's the guy you said looked gay and was one of the guys you were "bored of outplaying"

if he is 4betting 100% of a 60% range then we can't pass up that kinda edge/increase to our stack, but ofc i don't think he is.

Anybody half worth their salt has the ability to let the "captain" steal when you have bad holdings. It's not illegal to let someone steal your blinds.

Obviously agree with this

I think when people are vs players they know are good they get far too concerned with how they are going to stop themselves getting "owned" and forget to just play the spot, YES Jamie is an excellent player but he's not trying to run rings round the table he's just played his cards and the spots he finds himself in - that's what you should do too.

Don't level yourself into thinking that because he's a good young player he's going to go off his lid aggro 3/4/5betting you out of your seat, I'm sure he's got that gear but he's not going to use it without a good reason.

As for the hand my first instinct was Pleno's and to 3bet fold (easiest way to play it innit, can't imagine you'd get 4b light THAT often given your image, although Jamie could get suspicous as to just how wide your legit value 3b range is - would you 3b AQ/TT etc and feel like the majority of your 3b range is 3b/folding but I  imagine he'll air on the side of caution for the most part - AND of course the other positive to 3b/fold is you deny jamie's weaker opens their equity, Q9o J8o etc hands that could easily outflop you) however it's pretty obvious that the best play is to flat call and see what develops, Ahigh and broadway flops are the type he's prolly going to c-bet most frequently and we'll have no problem continuing on those flops + he'll have opened a lot of dominated Ax and Tx hands (A4, T8 etc) and there is decent implied odds there as he's very likely to lose at least two bets down the streets with a dominated to pair BvB.


Story checks out.

I just could not remember who it was and wasn't sure if I had the right person.

Jamie was definitely one or if not the tightest players I came across, so going through the blinds was what it was & he was incred nitty, imo.

I am still 3b, he's in the small blind, regardless of % or ranges, he is still the SB and any two can steal, so that's why I am 3b here, against most players with A-10.

If he 4b, I am deffo getting those cards in the muck as a fold as I don't think I saw him 3/4b the time.

Yeah, I can remember now :D :D

However, definitely do not think you was more of a nit than James(ie?), honestly couldn't remember more than 2 hands he was involved in, think one was 10-K and another pot with me just before that.

No disrespect, but I would have loved to have stayed on your table, they tore me a new on the other one. Although was a generally tight table in general your table

Stop de-railing the thread with your thinly veiled brags Aaron.

I think peeling vs me here is absolutely fine based on how you thought I viewed you. In reality I thought you were very peely, which suggests you aren't very 3betty so 3 bet folding here seems like a really good option. 3/5 betting is burning money without specific info.

Anyway, you peeled, so what happened next?

I like a call pre bvb, would prefer 3bet eg button vs co. Like the stuff about image/self-awareness at the start and good advice from dave/pleno ref this. Your nitty image is a source of strength in this spot especially close to the bubble especially with an actual hand. The flop comes down superdry so I would just go ahead and smooth, you prob still have the best hand and he wont relish barrelling into you all things considered.

Think flatting pre is fine, also think 3-folding has some merit, but I'm prolly flatting.

I don't know Jamie from Adam, but I assume (from posts ITT) that he's better than your average bear. With that in mind, I know that if I flat, I'm gonna have to face the barrels on at least most flops and possibly turns.

Means: I'm gonna be calling down quite light in this spot. Had similar experience vs mondatoo in GPS Newcastle where I flatted his LP open in bb with AQo and called down Ace high before he gave up the river. Think against players you perceive as clearly better than you you just have to be prepared to make them show you a hand.

Means (2): not passing to one bet on this flop for all tea in china vs a super genius. Calling lots of turns too. We're on the bubble so he may be prepared to get all three barrels out and we may have to call down. Fine. It's hard to make pairs from a wide preflop range and we have a pretty nutted no pair hand.

Definitely float one bet, but on the 8 turn am I really going to whip out the barrels?

It looks like you're never folding on this turn so I'd be pretty worried about my barrel. You can have a hella load of hands which can continue on a brick turn. Should probably just give it up and be all "meh; if he bluffs this turn he's terrible".

Very bad turn for him to barrel vs 'fish' - prolly folding now.

Not saying you = fish but you know what I mean. Expect his air range to give up here.

Also his sizing not very bluffy. However if he checks turn I check back and call a tonne of rivers.

When you call flop you look like over pair or 8. On a turn you don't look like folding he reduces bet size from 1/2 pot to 1/3 pot, 8 seems plausible.

flat pre, call flop, fold turn looks good. I can def see arguments for 3b folding but im fairly sure jamie will have a nicely balanced 4b range and im not sure if id be comfortable folding or calling (with your image- id prefer one where 3b snapping the bubble was preferable :P ).

Too shallow to double float and not enough 8x in our range to get funky.

Aaron, don't confuse tight and weak they are too very different things. It's ofc obvious that you'd rather have stayed on the tighter table where people had shorter stacks, when you have a good seat and a big chip stack (which you had the priviledge of enjoying for the majority of this period of the tournament) it's a very easy environment to accumulate in because everyone is forced to play tighter due to the chip dynamic.

It's having the different gears for the different circumstances that set you aside as a great player imo, when you need to nit it up you can nit it up, when you need to attack you can attack, playing all loose-aggy winning all the pots is pretty cool but 7/10 people bin their tournaments off trying to play like that when the circumstances are wrong. Basically being a LAG doesn't make you a sicko and being TIGHT doesn't make you weak.

Agree with everything that's been said r.e flop and turn play, flop is certainly worth taking one off, I think you'll get another bullet on a TEN almost always and I don't think an ACE will always kill your action either (really depends what Jamie's cards are as to how the hand will play on an ACE turn) so position, what we have to assume is quite good equity vs a wide range (I think its safe to assume Jamie will open from the SB pretty wide and will C-bet the flop with quite a large % of that opening range) and some sort of reasonable implied odds even vs a very capable opponent make calling the flop the best play by quite a distance.

Nothing to add r.e the turn play, it's not a good card for him to bluff and therefore it's a bad card for us to get stubborn on, just fold and if the man wants to bluff here then GL to him as it's not really a good play. He has more 8x in his range than us and we have a super thin legit value range on the turn so bluffing at this point is out of the question also like Alex says. I think broadway cards (or a pair) is what we really wanted to see OTT.

Its a program made by a 2+2er, a bit like SNG wizard but ranges aren't quite as good because they are inelastic, but it certainly has uses. I think I messed up calling ranges in the previous one but I still have it as a ATC shove as +Cev, TT+ AQs+ AKo as unexploitable tho which is quite different to the last one. Interesting to see.

The spreadsheet is called "Pushbot Rev 4.2" and has some really nice features and is fairly clear to use.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23/small-stakes-mtt/updated-pushbot-spreadsheet-1000-post-thank-you-824728/

Apologies for the my numpty questions/comments. Intriguing thread.


Why?

...surely, almost every competent, chipped up (500k) villain will barrel again (as per this example ~33% of the pot) on almost any turn card, given:

 - his dominant ~100 bigs stack
 - against a perceived weaker player who has likely "called the flop waiting to re-assess"
 - close to the bubble/standard exploitable time
 - to add 15% to his stack for 5% risk

So, if we are folding to second barrel on any non-A non-T turn, shouldn't we just fold on the flop?

Incidentally, the second barrel, of 25k into 74k, looks small.  How small can he barrel and still get us to fold? 

we're not folding (as I would play it) on any turn, but we are folding on this one for two main reasons:

1. it's a really bad card for him to bluff because he shouldn't expect us to fold much on this turn which we folded with on flop. if we have a pair on flop, we've improved to two pairs and trips on turn and should never be folding. Jamie knows that we won't fold much that we're folding on flop, so bets again for value -- if he expects that we can float with some high card equity and some draws (he already said he thinks/suspects we are peely) then he's not going to turn hands like KQo (which have some showdown value, however small) into a bluff in this spot.

2. if we call/raise here we rep a really thin value range -- what hands did we decide not to raise flop and now decide that 8 pairing is worth raising turn with? basically none?

we would peel again on Aces, Tens, Broadways, 4's, 5's, etc (paticularly those that possibly gave Jamie some backdoor equity...) though. The paired top card is pretty much the absolute nut worst card for Jamie to bluff at (doesn't change anything, he likely suspects that if he fires turn he has to fire river and if he's doing that near the bubble in a spot where he probably perceives our flop call range to be quite similar to our turn call range -- on this specific turn -- then he's needlessly getting it in with some high cards. he's almost always betting for value on this turn. He *could* also be betting a deuce for freeshowdown as well, but that currently beats us :D

hope that makes some sense -- i know what I mean but not great at explaining...

I will put myself in the sb and tell you what I'm thinking.

When it's folded around to me I will raise atc. This is because the bb is playing very tight, he has told the table he is being nitty, we are approaching the bubble, and I have chips. I will expect him to fold most of the time.

When he flats I will start constructing a range. Based on the factors above I would think he has pairs, Ax, broadway cards, and some connecting hands, overall a tightish range.

When the flop comes down I will cbet. The flop misses most of his range and due to the factors above a cbet has a good chance of success. Due to the texture of the flop I expect him to fold a lot of the time.

When he smooths the flop I wont like it cos my range is still very wide but his range is much thinner. There are no draws to speak of so what does his range look like now? I would stick with mostly pp's, the odd overcard combo eg AK/AQ he is playing nitty, or say A8/A3.

When the turn drops another 8 what now? A bet is designed to get value from a worse hand or to fold out a better hand. From that flop range I don't think I will successfully get 2 pair to fold very often, esp with a small bet.

I am only getting the odd overcard combo to fold some of the time. But I am more inclined to think he has 2 pair and will prob put the breaks on. Unless of course I have a value hand which I am trying to get paid with. If I do have an 8 or say JJ I might bet small because if I had to nail bb to a hand it would be 9-9 and I know he will call a small bet with 9-9. Due to my change in bet sizing though I think 8 is more likely than JJ. Either way my value range beats A-10 so would suggest fold A-10.

Just in terms of theory, it's a really bad turn card to get stubborn on for a lot of the reasons that Mantis mentioned in his last post.

1. You have almost no hand that calls flop and folds on this turn card, anything you will fold you probably fold on the flop, with the exception of some overcard floats.

2. My sizing doesn't really look like it's designed to get folds. A 1/3 pot bet keeps almost all of your flop calling range in on the turn, so you could now expect my range to be something like 44-77, 8x, 99-AA, A3/A2, something like that. Of course this means that you are supposed to simply believe that my range hugely thinned from my 75-90% perceived pre flop range (which pretty much all cbets this flop texture), but on this turn card you really don't have to worry about getting exploited because my range naturally has to become value only, because of how pair heavy your range is (none of which fold this turn).

3. You have a lot of weak pairs and A highs in your range which might check back the turn to try and get to showdown, so you can't expect me to check any part of my value range on the turn to go for a c/raise because you check back far too much. Therefore, I have all of my good hands in my betting range, so you can happily fold the bottom of yours (A highs and some 2x/3x combos) without worrying about getting exploited.

So, what did you do? And why?

I'm only on page 2 and don't know if this has been posted yet but would like to point out these two sentences both totally contradict each other.

If you are 100% think your getting 4bet then why would you make a massive over-jam? By 4 betting hes committing more chips, possibly with the intention of folding when you 5b jam - and you are only getting called by better. If you jam, again you are only getting called by better.

Jamming isn't even an option imo, it's too exploitable.

Jamming is horrendous even if it is slightly +Cev

The turn in simple terms our RANGE has gotten stronger, and his has gotten weaker.

Jamie reaches the turn with an extremely wide range, he's going to open pre-flop very wide, and he's going to c-bet this flop very often, so it's fair to say that as the turn cards hits he's actually got over 50% of the hands its possible to be dealt.

Our hand, has called before the flop (so can assume has SOME value) and has called on the flop (so can assume has some high card value or some part of the flop) the turn card strengthens a range that calls on the flop (flop pairs are now stronger/are trips etc) so when Jamie bets again he's doing so in the knowledge that his range is weaker than yours (percieved to be)

I know you're going to say - well if this is the case surely it's easy for jamie to just bluff this card then given that he knows you know this (lol, levels) but he can't because you'll have a strong hand too often, in fact the very fact that you can easily fold AT (one of your stronger hands) shows just how much stronger your range is on this turn card.

Basically he just really needs a hand or a sicko live read to airball this board.

Explain?

Folding turn is a good standard for reasons that have been posted, but I think calling is decent too assuming you have a solid plan for the river. Checking through is not a solid plan because you allow the fairy infrequent better ace highs to win the pot and the considerably more frequent pair<8 to showdown also. So particularly given your image if you are calling this turn it should be with a plan to do something otr. Calling river is by far your nut low option given villains propensity to value bet well and his sizing. Probably rip it now you got there I could legit see him hero folding an 8 if he thinks you're incapable which would make it an extremely profitable play.

Fold, he's going to bet for value just as much as he'll bluff in this spot, and I reckon similar sizing. Or put another way, 25-30% folding, 70-75% calling/we're beat

Vs this type of (maniac :P) I would take a stand with the Ace Ten, and 3bet pre, if 4 bet, I would shove, as I think he can easily 4 bet u light here, specially if u have not taken much of a stand prior, it could well be a case of he thinks I think.

I like the 3bet-5bet get it in tbh.

I could however flat, but I'm kinda flatting to play my position more than anything as I have strong showdown value with my hand. I would peel one off on the flop, but foldin on turn, as like u say with ur image, don't think he takes u for an 8 to be in your range of peels pre, and prob thinks u don't float much with game flow etc, so with all that info, I can't see him barreling on turn Into a paired board, when your range is capped pretty tight.

As played, I'm folding now, not too sure what your putting him on at this point, but if u think he has been weak all along, I fail to see why u have not tried to take the pot down pre flop?.

He would have an 8 in this spot a lot of the time, the amounts he has bet through the streets, I'd say he's more likely got a house tho by the river. Everything screams strength from this usually aggro maniac.

P.S <3 Jamie, just trying to lighten up my explanation.

Shoving 240k or 40bb to win 3bb just isnt worth it with our equity in the tournament being so high. There are  many other better lines that we can take rather than just jamming and preying he doesnt have top 7% hand or whatever. Even if it is a profitable jam it is by no means optimal imo.

Been using 155k ffs, this is why I showed my workings! oops  ;oopsy;