DTD Deepstack Day 2 Spot versus Nit Tendencies

[MANTIS01]

When you call flop you look like over pair or 8. On a turn you don't look like folding he reduces bet size from 1/2 pot to 1/3 pot, 8 seems plausible.

[AlexMartin]

flat pre, call flop, fold turn looks good. I can def see arguments for 3b folding but im fairly sure jamie will have a nicely balanced 4b range and im not sure if id be comfortable folding or calling (with your image- id prefer one where 3b snapping the bubble was preferable ).

Too shallow to double float and not enough 8x in our range to get funky.

[SuuPRlim]

However, definitely do not think you was more of a nit than James(ie?), honestly couldn't remember more than 2 hands he was involved in, think one was 10-K and another pot with me just before that.

No disrespect, but I would have loved to have stayed on your table, they tore me a new on the other one. Although was a generally tight table in general your table

Aaron, don't confuse tight and weak they are too very different things. It's ofc obvious that you'd rather have stayed on the tighter table where people had shorter stacks, when you have a good seat and a big chip stack (which you had the priviledge of enjoying for the majority of this period of the tournament) it's a very easy environment to accumulate in because everyone is forced to play tighter due to the chip dynamic.

It's having the different gears for the different circumstances that set you aside as a great player imo, when you need to nit it up you can nit it up, when you need to attack you can attack, playing all loose-aggy winning all the pots is pretty cool but 7/10 people bin their tournaments off trying to play like that when the circumstances are wrong. Basically being a LAG doesn't make you a sicko and being TIGHT doesn't make you weak.

Agree with everything that's been said r.e flop and turn play, flop is certainly worth taking one off, I think you'll get another bullet on a TEN almost always and I don't think an ACE will always kill your action either (really depends what Jamie's cards are as to how the hand will play on an ACE turn) so position, what we have to assume is quite good equity vs a wide range (I think its safe to assume Jamie will open from the SB pretty wide and will C-bet the flop with quite a large % of that opening range) and some sort of reasonable implied odds even vs a very capable opponent make calling the flop the best play by quite a distance.

Nothing to add r.e the turn play, it's not a good card for him to bluff and therefore it's a bad card for us to get stubborn on, just fold and if the man wants to bluff here then GL to him as it's not really a good play. He has more 8x in his range than us and we have a super thin legit value range on the turn so bluffing at this point is out of the question also like Alex says. I think broadway cards (or a pair) is what we really wanted to see OTT.

[rfgqqabc]

Its a program made by a 2+2er, a bit like SNG wizard but ranges aren't quite as good because they are inelastic, but it certainly has uses. I think I messed up calling ranges in the previous one but I still have it as a ATC shove as +Cev, TT+ AQs+ AKo as unexploitable tho which is quite different to the last one. Interesting to see.

The spreadsheet is called "Pushbot Rev 4.2" and has some really nice features and is fairly clear to use.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23/small-stakes-mtt/updated-pushbot-spreadsheet-1000-post-thank-you-824728/

[dtm75]

Apologies for the my numpty questions/comments. Intriguing thread.

Expect his air range to give up here.

Why?

...surely, almost every competent, chipped up (500k) villain will barrel again (as per this example ~33% of the pot) on almost any turn card, given:

 - his dominant ~100 bigs stack
 - against a perceived weaker player who has likely "called the flop waiting to re-assess"
 - close to the bubble/standard exploitable time
 - to add 15% to his stack for 5% risk

So, if we are folding to second barrel on any non-A non-T turn, shouldn't we just fold on the flop?

Incidentally, the second barrel, of 25k into 74k, looks small.  How small can he barrel and still get us to fold? 

[mulhuzz]

Apologies for the my numpty questions/comments. Intriguing thread.

Expect his air range to give up here.

Why?

...surely, almost every competent, chipped up (500k) villain will barrel again (as per this example ~33% of the pot) on almost any turn card, given:

 - his dominant ~100 bigs stack
 - against a perceived weaker player who has likely "called the flop waiting to re-assess"
 - close to the bubble/standard exploitable time
 - to add 15% to his stack for 5% risk

So, if we are folding to second barrel on any non-A non-T turn, shouldn't we just fold on the flop?

Incidentally, the second barrel, of 25k into 74k, looks small.  How small can he barrel and still get us to fold?  

we're not folding (as I would play it) on any turn, but we are folding on this one for two main reasons:

1. it's a really bad card for him to bluff because he shouldn't expect us to fold much on this turn which we folded with on flop. if we have a pair on flop, we've improved to two pairs and trips on turn and should never be folding. Jamie knows that we won't fold much that we're folding on flop, so bets again for value -- if he expects that we can float with some high card equity and some draws (he already said he thinks/suspects we are peely) then he's not going to turn hands like KQo (which have some showdown value, however small) into a bluff in this spot.

2. if we call/raise here we rep a really thin value range -- what hands did we decide not to raise flop and now decide that 8 pairing is worth raising turn with? basically none?

we would peel again on Aces, Tens, Broadways, 4's, 5's, etc (paticularly those that possibly gave Jamie some backdoor equity...) though. The paired top card is pretty much the absolute nut worst card for Jamie to bluff at (doesn't change anything, he likely suspects that if he fires turn he has to fire river and if he's doing that near the bubble in a spot where he probably perceives our flop call range to be quite similar to our turn call range -- on this specific turn -- then he's needlessly getting it in with some high cards. he's almost always betting for value on this turn. He *could* also be betting a deuce for freeshowdown as well, but that currently beats us

hope that makes some sense -- i know what I mean but not great at explaining...

[MANTIS01]

Apologies for the my numpty questions/comments. Intriguing thread.

Expect his air range to give up here.

Why?

...surely, almost every competent, chipped up (500k) villain will barrel again (as per this example ~33% of the pot) on almost any turn card, given:

 - his dominant ~100 bigs stack
 - against a perceived weaker player who has likely "called the flop waiting to re-assess"
 - close to the bubble/standard exploitable time
 - to add 15% to his stack for 5% risk

So, if we are folding to second barrel on any non-A non-T turn, shouldn't we just fold on the flop?

Incidentally, the second barrel, of 25k into 74k, looks small.  How small can he barrel and still get us to fold? 

I will put myself in the sb and tell you what I'm thinking.

When it's folded around to me I will raise atc. This is because the bb is playing very tight, he has told the table he is being nitty, we are approaching the bubble, and I have chips. I will expect him to fold most of the time.

When he flats I will start constructing a range. Based on the factors above I would think he has pairs, Ax, broadway cards, and some connecting hands, overall a tightish range.

When the flop comes down I will cbet. The flop misses most of his range and due to the factors above a cbet has a good chance of success. Due to the texture of the flop I expect him to fold a lot of the time.

When he smooths the flop I wont like it cos my range is still very wide but his range is much thinner. There are no draws to speak of so what does his range look like now? I would stick with mostly pp's, the odd overcard combo eg AK/AQ he is playing nitty, or say A8/A3.

When the turn drops another 8 what now? A bet is designed to get value from a worse hand or to fold out a better hand. From that flop range I don't think I will successfully get 2 pair to fold very often, esp with a small bet.

I am only getting the odd overcard combo to fold some of the time. But I am more inclined to think he has 2 pair and will prob put the breaks on. Unless of course I have a value hand which I am trying to get paid with. If I do have an 8 or say JJ I might bet small because if I had to nail bb to a hand it would be 9-9 and I know he will call a small bet with 9-9. Due to my change in bet sizing though I think 8 is more likely than JJ. Either way my value range beats A-10 so would suggest fold A-10.

[Nit Tendencies]

Just in terms of theory, it's a really bad turn card to get stubborn on for a lot of the reasons that Mantis mentioned in his last post.

1. You have almost no hand that calls flop and folds on this turn card, anything you will fold you probably fold on the flop, with the exception of some overcard floats.

2. My sizing doesn't really look like it's designed to get folds. A 1/3 pot bet keeps almost all of your flop calling range in on the turn, so you could now expect my range to be something like 44-77, 8x, 99-AA, A3/A2, something like that. Of course this means that you are supposed to simply believe that my range hugely thinned from my 75-90% perceived pre flop range (which pretty much all cbets this flop texture), but on this turn card you really don't have to worry about getting exploited because my range naturally has to become value only, because of how pair heavy your range is (none of which fold this turn).

3. You have a lot of weak pairs and A highs in your range which might check back the turn to try and get to showdown, so you can't expect me to check any part of my value range on the turn to go for a c/raise because you check back far too much. Therefore, I have all of my good hands in my betting range, so you can happily fold the bottom of yours (A highs and some 2x/3x combos) without worrying about getting exploited.

So, what did you do? And why?

[youthnkzR]

3 Betting

I'm thinking of 3 betting, but am 100% certain that I get 4bet here. This means I either fold and lose more...or I 5 bet jam. It looks super strong with my image - but the only hand calling me is beating me. Then I go home with no Hendonmob entry, no money and look daft.

Massive 3 Bet Jam

I really really liked the thought of doing this.  But again, the thought of getting snapped by a big hand and looking daft with no pennies in the bank switched me off the idea.  I guess if I had min cash locked I would have gone for this. #please discuss

I'm only on page 2 and don't know if this has been posted yet but would like to point out these two sentences both totally contradict each other.

If you are 100% think your getting 4bet then why would you make a massive over-jam? By 4 betting hes committing more chips, possibly with the intention of folding when you 5b jam - and you are only getting called by better. If you jam, again you are only getting called by better.

Jamming isn't even an option imo, it's too exploitable.

[TL900]

Jamming is horrendous even if it is slightly +Cev

[SuuPRlim]

The turn in simple terms our RANGE has gotten stronger, and his has gotten weaker.

Jamie reaches the turn with an extremely wide range, he's going to open pre-flop very wide, and he's going to c-bet this flop very often, so it's fair to say that as the turn cards hits he's actually got over 50% of the hands its possible to be dealt.

Our hand, has called before the flop (so can assume has SOME value) and has called on the flop (so can assume has some high card value or some part of the flop) the turn card strengthens a range that calls on the flop (flop pairs are now stronger/are trips etc) so when Jamie bets again he's doing so in the knowledge that his range is weaker than yours (percieved to be)

I know you're going to say - well if this is the case surely it's easy for jamie to just bluff this card then given that he knows you know this (lol, levels) but he can't because you'll have a strong hand too often, in fact the very fact that you can easily fold AT (one of your stronger hands) shows just how much stronger your range is on this turn card.

Basically he just really needs a hand or a sicko live read to airball this board.

[rfgqqabc]

Jamming is horrendous even if it is slightly +Cev

Explain?

[Patonius2000]

So I'm aware that Jamie will Cbet the flop wide and I figure the 8 turn could be a good card for me.  That allied with his reduced bet sizing gives me a little confidence.  I also think that flatting again is strong.

So I flat.

I'm a big believer in live tells and use them alot.  Now I may be wrong, but Jamie doesn't seem all that comfortable with me flatting, there's a perceptible shift.

In my mind I'm thinking I can either get a check-check on the river - or perhaps rep the 8 (or possibly even a turned boat) and raise him off the hand.

River



Jamie bets 50k into 124k

That wasn't meant to happen, but I'd prepared myself to face 3 barrels at the start of the hand...

I've gotta admit that now I'm having a really schizo moment.  I've been caught between 3 personalities all hand:

1. My normal aggro around the bubble self (thats basically been telling me to stick it up him all the way). This is telling me to shove.

2. My cautious make the cash self has been telling me to smooth call so far at most - and is now screaming FOLD!!!!

3. My cash game head that is now telling me I can probably make an equity call

I have 182k back.

Questions

1. What range are we now assigning to Jamie?

2. Do I:

a. Fold
b. Call
c. Shove

Folding turn is a good standard for reasons that have been posted, but I think calling is decent too assuming you have a solid plan for the river. Checking through is not a solid plan because you allow the fairy infrequent better ace highs to win the pot and the considerably more frequent pair<8 to showdown also. So particularly given your image if you are calling this turn it should be with a plan to do something otr. Calling river is by far your nut low option given villains propensity to value bet well and his sizing. Probably rip it now you got there I could legit see him hero folding an 8 if he thinks you're incapable which would make it an extremely profitable play.

[dwayne110]

Fold, he's going to bet for value just as much as he'll bluff in this spot, and I reckon similar sizing. Or put another way, 25-30% folding, 70-75% calling/we're beat

[dreenie]

Vs this type of (maniac ) I would take a stand with the Ace Ten, and 3bet pre, if 4 bet, I would shove, as I think he can easily 4 bet u light here, specially if u have not taken much of a stand prior, it could well be a case of he thinks I think.

I like the 3bet-5bet get it in tbh.

I could however flat, but I'm kinda flatting to play my position more than anything as I have strong showdown value with my hand. I would peel one off on the flop, but foldin on turn, as like u say with ur image, don't think he takes u for an 8 to be in your range of peels pre, and prob thinks u don't float much with game flow etc, so with all that info, I can't see him barreling on turn Into a paired board, when your range is capped pretty tight.

As played, I'm folding now, not too sure what your putting him on at this point, but if u think he has been weak all along, I fail to see why u have not tried to take the pot down pre flop?.

He would have an 8 in this spot a lot of the time, the amounts he has bet through the streets, I'd say he's more likely got a house tho by the river. Everything screams strength from this usually aggro maniac.

P.S <3 Jamie, just trying to lighten up my explanation.