Title: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 12:35:11 AM UTG Blinds Jams 30,000 first hand
We are UTG+1 what do we get in? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: George2Loose on July 08, 2013, 12:35:50 AM Bottom set?
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Donk23 on July 08, 2013, 12:35:57 AM aa
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Donk23 on July 08, 2013, 12:36:46 AM any pair, they must have AK
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 12:39:35 AM "blind"
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Donk23 on July 08, 2013, 12:51:14 AM Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 12:52:56 AM Equity Win Tie
MP2 82.40% 82.12% 0.28% KK MP3 17.60% 17.33% 0.28% random Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Ant040689 on July 08, 2013, 07:17:53 AM AK 1010+ probs.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Young_gun on July 08, 2013, 08:02:10 AM AK 1010+ probs. Really thats not good, i'd say only AA possibly Kk But depends on villain Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: jgcblack on July 08, 2013, 08:08:52 AM I thought this has been answered before...
If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: AlexMartin on July 08, 2013, 08:23:21 AM depends on how tough the table is and your table number for breaking. QQ+ feels right, id call JJ+ if i thought a guy behind might fold QQ. Probably not taking the 60% AK jobbie though.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: wazz on July 08, 2013, 08:38:02 AM I thought this has been answered before... If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. How often do you expect to cash in this thing? I'm prepared to fold KK but not AA. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tal on July 08, 2013, 08:42:26 AM Fold aces.
I'd even fold Super Aces. As everyone knows, these are one better than aces and are the equivalent of running into the flashing star in Super Mario Bros. They make your hand invincible. Now, assuming UTG doesn't notice that you have Super Aces (they are much bigger cards than the standard ones, so quite easy to spot), you should still let them go. Even though you have 100% equity in the hand, there is still the possibility of dealer error when pushing the pot to the winner (the equivalent of falling down a hole in the floor in Mario), so it's best to avoid that situation and move on to the next hand. If pokerstrategy.com is looking for a training video on how to play Super Aces, feel free to PM me. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 09:22:03 AM AK 1010+ probs. Really thats not good, i'd say only AA possibly Kk But depends on villain Folding kk is absurd Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 09:22:24 AM I thought this has been answered before... If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. Ridiculous Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Honeybadger on July 08, 2013, 09:25:55 AM I thought this has been answered before... If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. Ridiculous Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 09:35:53 AM I thought this has been answered before... If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. Ridiculous Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO. I mean I hope you're not serious :p Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: jgcblack on July 08, 2013, 10:08:45 AM I thought this has been answered before... If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o. The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation...... and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind. no? answer is we dont get in anything.. ever. its hand 1 of wsop me - no need. Ridiculous Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO. I mean I hope you're not serious :p any chance of a slightly more in depth explanation...?? Ive heard many different opinions about hands from wsop ME in the past. Most of them have at some point mentioned that the main is different. Anyone remember the matusow flush fold from a few years ago?? He folds Qs Js on the turn if I remember, because it was vs a rookie.... turns out the guy had tptk with Aspades for ntfd. (The Ks was on the board, it wouldve been over half his stack) How does your calling range change if this utg player has looked?? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 10:10:44 AM Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj
Most people agreed jj+ I think Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: jgcblack on July 08, 2013, 10:12:29 AM Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj Most people agreed jj+ I think Just JJ+?.......... AK? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tal on July 08, 2013, 10:26:45 AM In simple maths terms, couldn't you argue calling with 50% of starting hands?
Worth saying that the ME is a unique tournament in many respects. People travel the world over to experience the marquee poker event. It is the largest comp 99.5% of the field will ever play and probably 90% won't play more than a £1,000 comp in their lives, this aside. So, to the overwhelming majority of the field, the answer to your question would be to fold pretty much blind, because they don't want to be going home in hand one; they want to be sitting down for as long as possible, to experience the occasion, have some photos, play a couple of hands against a name and maybe win a pot or two. Makes almost sod all difference if they get through the day with 26,400 or 56,400, as long as they get through. If you are a serious pro and this is "just another MTT", the approach must be different and, even accounting for implied tourney equity v the field, JJ+ is a snap call. Maybe I'm a romantic, but that seems to me to be a terrible waste of an experience if your mindset doesn't allow you to let a few hands go early doors to drink in the moment. You have all day to crush the field. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Honeybadger on July 08, 2013, 11:06:43 AM I mean I hope you're not serious :p I am offended you had to ask... Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: George2Loose on July 08, 2013, 11:08:59 AM What if someone jams then someone calls? Range?
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Doobs on July 08, 2013, 11:30:13 AM Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj Most people agreed jj+ I think Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong. Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker. If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB. This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%. You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity. If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind. Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind. AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ. I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them! If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: George2Loose on July 08, 2013, 11:55:24 AM Duhamel probably viewing is we would a 20 freeze
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: jgcblack on July 08, 2013, 12:05:12 PM Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj Most people agreed jj+ I think Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong. Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker. If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB. This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%. You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity. If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind. Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind. AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ. I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them! If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier. I just quoted what id heard players better than me discuss in the past. I think id find it tough to muck AA.. really tough with KK and people behind.... I've never played the ME yet, but I have heard of a situation that deals with an interesting early live mtt spot. A blonde was apparently in an event where a random player 'accidentally' makes it 5300 instead of a call of 300 (1 extra 5k chip). The blonde in question supposedly then insta-ships his starting stack with 33 only to be snapped by KK. In this ME question, I've heard people talk about having bets to go all in blind first hand and obviously it would suck to have the AA and lose to J3o. But it is a 7 day comp after all.... and a lot of people talk about how differently you have to play it because of this. ??? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 12:08:02 PM AQs, 99+
Why would we fold aces? People talk about the main event like its the holy grail, it comes around every year people, people play a very fragile style in this tournament getting chips together early is (whilst not at all necessary with the insane structure of the tournament) very very good. That being said it's so awesome being IN the main event that I'd defo shave a few hands off the correct range, I'm with doobs I think 77 and 88 are a lil too venerable but you should prolly go with AJs and AQo as well but I think i'd slide em in on this occasion. I read that article where guys were saying they would fold JJ which I think is a bit silly, I am all for the $equity of the spot worth more than the chip equity but this is vs 100% of hands, lets say doubling your stack is worth $10k for someone with a 250% ROI, you wanna take JJ vs ATC $25k to win $10k? Yes please. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Doobs on July 08, 2013, 12:13:27 PM Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj Most people agreed jj+ I think Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong. Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker. If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB. This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%. You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity. If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind. Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind. AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ. I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them! If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier. I just quoted what id heard players better than me discuss in the past. I think id find it tough to muck AA.. really tough with KK and people behind.... I've never played the ME yet, but I have heard of a situation that deals with an interesting early live mtt spot. A blonde was apparently in an event where a random player 'accidentally' makes it 5300 instead of a call of 300 (1 extra 5k chip). The blonde in question supposedly then insta-ships his starting stack with 33 only to be snapped by KK. In this ME question, I've heard people talk about having bets to go all in blind first hand and obviously it would suck to have the AA and lose to J3o. But it is a 7 day comp after all.... and a lot of people talk about how differently you have to play it because of this. ??? you don't muck AA, if people better than you do, then they aren't great either. You don't spew with 33 just because somebody makes an error either. A lot of players are going to compound errors by refusing to let the 5k go, though that is for another thread I feel. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 12:26:25 PM also John, that person has looked at his cards and decided that they are nice enough to open with, which takes at least 70% of the "blind all-in" hands out of the question.
Reason we're loving it with JJ is cos he has 28, 94, 53, 85 offsuit where the 5300 man has none of those hands. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 08, 2013, 01:18:32 PM Just JJ+?.......... AK? Looked at this with regards to ICM spots the other day. From what I remember AK is about 65% vs ATC and 99 is around 72% (and JJ is like 77%). Because shoving blind can contain a full range of hands, AK won't really be dominating much of his range, whereas 99+ will pwn it. AK becomes much stronger vs a range that is weighted towards alot more Ax/Kx type hands. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 01:23:00 PM obv just call KK+
then when it folds round you can be all chat tilted about how you were calling fours there and you had such a sweat as you thought you'd paired up but then only found the 45o etc. verbally widen your range whilst just actually calling with the nizzleys imo Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 08, 2013, 01:30:56 PM Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 01:44:45 PM utg 1 vs utg? at a 10 handed table with 2 hour blinds and 300bigs to start?
is it me and 9 iveys? and we're last in the b/order!? obv wider in bb with no one left to act. + gotta remember theres a diff between saying yeh bruv 22+ and A3o+ cos im a balla and theres like a 0.6897754 edge there. then actually flying there paying 10k and sitting at the table and flicking it in....... Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 08, 2013, 01:49:03 PM Jj and kk is the same though because pele behind are folding kings I guess
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 01:53:03 PM Jj and kk is the same though because pele behind are folding kings I guess ldo it depends on your table makeup, how tough, when breaking, assumed calling ranges, like if all other players at the table are as certain as we are that he's blind then their ranges will ldo be based on their perception of our range entirely. think it's just dumb to try and sound kewl by giving a really wide range because you can show that vs a random hand we are passing up some small edge. ME is an awesome comp for non showdown crushaments Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Young_gun on July 08, 2013, 02:00:23 PM AK 1010+ probs. Really thats not good, i'd say only AA possibly Kk But depends on villain Folding kk is absurd Wouldnt be my default in fact the opposite, think anything less then KK is too riskay and we would need a super read to call queens or worse. Not worth the risk Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 08, 2013, 02:01:04 PM Oh shit, I didnt see UTG+1.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nT1gKPskKfM/T19q_fXk62I/AAAAAAAAAeA/raOX7UY2t00/s1600/homer-doh-square.jpg) Alright so assuming an overcalling range for all stacks of AA/KK, we can profitably call with: (41.0%) 33+,A2+,K2s+,K4o+,Q4s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+ Obviously this is a perfect cEV calling range so pretty much not relevant. If we say we want a 20% edge (6000 chips), we can call with: (10.4%) 66+,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+ A 30% (9k chips) cEV edge is: (3.5%) 88+,AKs If we require a 50% edge (15k chips), we can call with: (1.4%) QQ+ All you have to do is decide what your stack is worth to you (which is obviously going to be different for individuals). Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 02:02:47 PM ooooook
so what range should a player use depending on the markup they sold at ie assuming that they were at least providing a breakeven steak! Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 02:03:52 PM also it's so dreamy to be all exact and say everyone folds all bar AA or KK but then you read the updates and men open utg and snap 80 bigs with 34s vs 4 other all in players....
you cannot always allow for the russians Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Boba Fett on July 08, 2013, 02:03:53 PM If people are folding AA then shouldnt you just shove all in blind every hand? How long does it take the person folding AA to widen their range?
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 08, 2013, 02:05:47 PM ooooook so what range should a player use depending on the markup they sold at ie assuming that they were at least providing a breakeven steak! I prefer mine medium rare, so wouldn't like to comment. Of course, if you sold at 1.5 then QQ is a snap fold. AA nets 21562 and KK 18334. If people are folding AA then shouldnt you just shove all in blind every hand? How long does it take the person folding AA to widen their range? For this to be relevant one player would have to shove every hand to allow us no post flop opporunities to gain a bigger edge. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 02:42:59 PM I was just making a point that many people claim to expect massive rois, yet here we have people trying to justify going as high variance as possible.
red line winnings ftw, who even wins allins ever!? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 08, 2013, 02:47:17 PM I was just making a point that many people claim to expect massive rois, yet here we have people trying to justify going as high variance as possible. red line winnings ftw, who even wins allins ever!? If someone in here has claimed they will call with less equity then they said they would sell at then go all Timex on their ass and call them out, imo. ;whistle; Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 02:48:56 PM bankoftitties
now who wouldn't bank with dem :p Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 03:01:41 PM we would need a super read to call queens or worse. Not worth the risk what kind of super reads you gonna get on a blind 300 big blind shove? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 03:09:55 PM Also I think it's safe to assume that no-one is calling off with KK after you've called, only AA will call and there is a 3.5% liklihood of someone at an 8 handed table to be dealt AA in any one hand, its relevant sure, and this would be one of the time that it will concern me most, buts a small figure and shouldn't factor into the obvious decisions like folding QQ and using the reason that someone might have ACES behind you would be absurd. 88 on the other hand, the risk of running into it is a little more prominent as you have much less equity against the blind all-in.
The main event is a brilliant tournament but it's still poker, I 100% agree you should call a tighter range than the exact same spot first hand of an ept, but not THAT much tighter as folding JJ would be giving away a very easy hugely profitable spot. So what if he has 97 and makes three 9's, its still just a tournament, there will be the same one next year and got very unlucky here, happens. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tal on July 08, 2013, 03:12:17 PM we would need a super read to call queens or worse. Not worth the risk what kind of super reads you gonna get on a blind 300 big blind shove? I'd say there's a 5% chance someone careless enough to open jam UTG on hand one of the main event carelessly exposes their cards. ;) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 03:15:22 PM obviously if there are external factors that cause you to be really risk adverse early doors thats different, he question is what would I do - I'd be really happy to call a blind all in UTG vs UTG1 first hand with TT, as I think you make a lot of money (real $) by doing so.
However in wouldn't actually believe they were blind and would fold KK very quickly. unless i knew 100% they hadn't seen - as in i had watched the guy from the first second he got his cards, 98% sure is not enough, and if i was 99% sure I'd rather have AK or AQ i think for a blocckkker. 97% sure or less and I might even just fold blind, no use to even finding AA really. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 08, 2013, 03:16:36 PM doesn't help that the tables are 9 and 10 handed alot early in the wsop events. sooo many players
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: wazz on July 08, 2013, 11:17:28 PM Oh I didn't see that he was shoving blind.
QQ+ then imo. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 08, 2013, 11:43:09 PM you got 80% with QQ, 77.5% with JJ and 75% with TT 72% with 99
If we're calling QQ, surely we should call 99 as well? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: neverbluff67 on July 09, 2013, 12:35:14 AM He's not blind right??
Getting in AA only, If he's blind, I think you should call wider in relation to how big you consider your edge postflop vs the table Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: pleno1 on July 09, 2013, 12:37:28 AM He's not blind right?? Getting in AA only, If he's blind, I think you should call wider in relation to how big you consider your edge postflop vs the table It's hypothetical and he is blind. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 09, 2013, 12:53:38 AM He's not blind right?? Getting in AA only, If he's blind, I think you should call wider in relation to how big you consider your edge postflop vs the table you'd need a ridiculously soft table (and be certain it wont be one of the early ones to break) to turn down 75% though surely? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: neverbluff67 on July 09, 2013, 01:57:46 AM There has be be a cut off somewhere and I think mine would be JJ I'd get in QQ+
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Oxford_HRV on July 09, 2013, 02:52:00 AM Personally i'd announce raise, pretending i havent noticed UTG has shoved then proceed to flop nuts with Jd 3s
but this is so player dependant you could either be ridic balla and re jam ATC HU4rollz or fold out everything but AA. all depends on how much you wanna be gtd to play more than just one hand Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: lucky_scrote on July 09, 2013, 09:58:22 AM If he's looked I'm folding KK.
If he's generally all-in blind then I don't think I can give up an edge of folding 7's AQ+. I would generally expect people to fold KK behind too so I wouldn't be too worried about that. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 10:37:07 AM I would fold everything except AA and don't give one fuck what the maths says.
Let's say you buy a ticket to the final British Lions test and fly to Australia to watch the game. Somebody outside the ground offers you £5k for it? I don't care how much money I'm theoretically losing I'm still doing the conga through the turnstiles. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: lucky_scrote on July 09, 2013, 10:51:01 AM To be fair, to the likes of recreational players I can understand folding out most of their hands in this spot when they should be calling because busting first hand is a pretty nut low scenario for them regardless of what edge they are offered. If you are a professional though, you need to do what is appropriate.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 09, 2013, 01:20:17 PM I would fold everything except AA and don't give one fuck what the maths says. Let's say you buy a ticket to the final British Lions test and fly to Australia to watch the game. Somebody outside the ground offers you £5k for it? I don't care how much money I'm theoretically losing I'm still doing the conga through the turnstiles. How about if they offer you £5k + a 75% chance you'll get to keep your ticket, and with better seats? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Ironside on July 09, 2013, 01:44:21 PM Lol, the guy has shoved blind! I don't care what tournament it is or how many hands in you are, I am never ever folding a hand as strong as KK. you got a full table to act behind you, you really want to be calling aq and tt? I would call qq+ maybe aks I'd call TT+ AK & AQs. Even that is maybe on the tight side. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 01:56:02 PM I would fold everything except AA and don't give one fuck what the maths says. Let's say you buy a ticket to the final British Lions test and fly to Australia to watch the game. Somebody outside the ground offers you £5k for it? I don't care how much money I'm theoretically losing I'm still doing the conga through the turnstiles. How about if they offer you £5k + a 75% chance you'll get to keep your ticket, and with better seats? Would snap because it's £5k locked-up + free spin. Can't really lose. How much do we have locked-up in the other scenario? Nothing that's what. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: George2Loose on July 09, 2013, 02:00:48 PM Because u can pick up chips without taking high variance lines
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: rfgqqabc on July 09, 2013, 02:01:23 PM How has this got to 5 pages? Really? QQ+ seems like a nice area although if people are folding KK behind surely we can go a bit wider. Obviously for some people the experience of the main is greater than the value of doubling but if this is true to such a degree we are folding KK then why register, got to play at some point and your hardly enjoying the experience if you sit there scurrred.
Melissa why are we taking AQs over 99? I know we have the blocker but we are 5.8% worse off purely vs a random hand. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 02:13:12 PM Not gambling 30,000 at 25/50 with a non nut hand pre flop on the first deal of the wsop ME doesn't mean you're scared. And it doesn't mean you'll make that kinda decision throughout the whole comp.
It just means you want to take your coat off and play some poker before you have to stand up and wander off again. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Ironside on July 09, 2013, 02:22:24 PM First hand of a slow structure I wouldn't likely 3 bet with tt and aq from such an ep never mind call a blind shove with 8 people still waiting to act
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: CHIPPYMAN on July 09, 2013, 02:28:47 PM Not gambling 30,000 at 25/50 with a non nut hand pre flop on the first deal of the wsop ME doesn't mean you're scared. And it doesn't mean you'll make that kinda decision throughout the whole comp. It just means you want to take your coat off and play some poker before you have to stand up and wander off again. I don't know how else to describe it but scared. There is no logical or mathematical reason to not get KK in If you folded KK, wouldn't that just be your emotions playing for you? Cause you wouldn't actually be making an optimal decision. Really with KK aswell at UTG+2 and whole table still to act ? Can't be right here . 30k starting stack with bb at 50/100 n two hours clock ! U haven't put any chips in there . Just fold n let the idiot take the 150 sb and bb . Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 02:29:01 PM Lol, the guy has shoved blind! I don't care what tournament it is or how many hands in you are, I am never ever folding a hand as strong as KK. you got a full table to act behind you, you really want to be calling aq and tt? I would call qq+ maybe aks I'd call TT+ AK & AQs. Even that is maybe on the tight side. This is completely illogical. UTG is shoving ATC, why would we call AKs and NOT 99/TT/JJ? Even 88 plays better than AKs. http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm (http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 02:33:21 PM Not gambling 30,000 at 25/50 with a non nut hand pre flop on the first deal of the wsop ME doesn't mean you're scared. And it doesn't mean you'll make that kinda decision throughout the whole comp. It just means you want to take your coat off and play some poker before you have to stand up and wander off again. I don't know how else to describe it but scared. There is no logical or mathematical reason to not get KK in If you folded KK, wouldn't that just be your emotions playing for you? Cause you wouldn't actually be making an optimal decision. The logical reason is to get some sort of perceived value for money. You are still paying for a good time afterall. It's like if I offered you a half price pair of Jimmy Choos. You don't know what size they are so don't know if they will fit. Wouldn't you want to try them on and walk around in them a bit first to see how they feel? I know I would, cos I really struggle walking in heels. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 02:57:51 PM Sorry, should have specified in my hypothetical scenario you can't re-sell. But they look about right and there's a 75% chance they will fit. If they do fit scoopio if they don't fit huge disappointment.
A smaller comp would be like offering you a pair of cheap flip flops at half price, much easier to shrug off. You are obv correct tho xx Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Ironside on July 09, 2013, 02:59:31 PM Lol, the guy has shoved blind! I don't care what tournament it is or how many hands in you are, I am never ever folding a hand as strong as KK. you got a full table to act behind you, you really want to be calling aq and tt? I would call qq+ maybe aks I'd call TT+ AK & AQs. Even that is maybe on the tight side. This is completely illogical. UTG is shoving ATC, why would we call AKs and NOT 99/TT/JJ? Even 88 plays better than AKs. http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm (http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 03:06:12 PM Lol, the guy has shoved blind! I don't care what tournament it is or how many hands in you are, I am never ever folding a hand as strong as KK. you got a full table to act behind you, you really want to be calling aq and tt? I would call qq+ maybe aks I'd call TT+ AK & AQs. Even that is maybe on the tight side. This is completely illogical. UTG is shoving ATC, why would we call AKs and NOT 99/TT/JJ? Even 88 plays better than AKs. http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm (http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#ODlm) (http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b343/NovaReon/notsureifserious.jpg) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Ironside on July 09, 2013, 03:15:55 PM Seriously if we call tt and people call behind us we are dead too the water with ak we have blockers against someone waking with aa kk
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:23:24 PM (http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/politicians-eating-food-funny-18.jpg?w=500)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:24:01 PM (http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lgo3t3S2Z81qg91vo.jpg)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 03:24:15 PM Seriously if we call tt and people call behind us we are dead too the water with ak we have blockers against someone waking with aa kk We're far more concerned with how our hand plays vs the blind shover seen as were going to be playing vs him 100% of the time. The chance of us getting overcalled by AA/KK is tiny. Ive done the maths. 88 nets 9888 chips profit, AKs nets 9600 chips profit. TT nets 13174 and JJ 14541. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:24:28 PM (http://therionorteline.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/obama-eating-pizza.jpg?w=812)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:26:09 PM (http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Lifeandhealth/Pix/pictures/2009/8/7/1249637008352/Barack-Obama-eating-frogs-001.jpg)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:27:25 PM (http://scotspolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/boris.jpg)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:28:06 PM (http://pnimg.net/w/articles/1/4fa/91ead5dd5b.jpg)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 03:31:49 PM Seriously if we call tt and people call behind us we are dead too the water with ak we have blockers against someone waking with aa kk We're far more concerned with how our hand plays vs the blind shover seen as were going to be playing vs him 100% of the time. The chance of us getting overcalled by AA/KK is tiny. Ive done the maths. 88 nets 9888 chips profit, AKs nets 9600 chips profit. TT nets 13174 and JJ 14541. GTFO Bingham!!!!! Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: titaniumbean on July 09, 2013, 03:33:36 PM people deffo are underestimating how much a good player can chip up in the main event with non showdown when they get the right table.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:40:28 PM (http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lvo8isW1MC1r6aoq4o1_500.gif)
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:41:39 PM Seriously if we call tt and people call behind us we are dead too the water with ak we have blockers against someone waking with aa kk We're far more concerned with how our hand plays vs the blind shover seen as were going to be playing vs him 100% of the time. The chance of us getting overcalled by AA/KK is tiny. Ive done the maths. 88 nets 9888 chips profit, AKs nets 9600 chips profit. TT nets 13174 and JJ 14541. GTFO Bingham!!!!! (http://i.imgur.com/ff3lu.gif) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Boba Fett on July 09, 2013, 03:57:39 PM Anyone wanna go through every Mantis post and create an ultimate list of every situation he has taken and compared it to a completely ridiculous hypothetical situation? Thread has comedy gold written all over it
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 03:59:33 PM (http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m33fzqrjOQ1qhbarso1_400.gif) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Doobs on July 09, 2013, 04:00:14 PM people deffo are underestimating how much a good player can chip up in the main event with non showdown when they get the right table. People definitely making bad assumptions about calling ranges behind too. Just because it is stupid to call behind with AK doesn't mean they don't. I was sat with 400 BBs at a GUKPT last year, player sat down first hand he played was all in pre with AK vs QQ. They were both aware the other had looked at their hands too. There was one on Pokernews yesterday where Mad Turk called 2 or 3 all ins with JJ (he had them covered) then someone behind with a monster stack called behind him with 43 suited. I got a gazillion big blinds in with KK vs J6 off 2nd level of the Rio Deepstack less than a fortnight ago. It just isn't safe to assume only AA calls behind. I think AK is bad, KK definitely good, we could debate the other pairs based on the size of our insane edge. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 04:05:58 PM I guess we should also take into account our history with players behind as well. Have any of the players seen us make this kind of play before?
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 04:16:31 PM I guess we should also take into account our history with players behind as well. Have any of the players seen us make this kind of play before? (http://www.tillerman.net/uploaded_images/elky_joker_2-780580.jpg) Yes. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tommy Bingham on July 09, 2013, 04:18:25 PM More info needed imo
(http://i.imgur.com/BOv4Xur.gif) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 05:07:10 PM Anyone wanna go through every Mantis post and create an ultimate list of every situation he has taken and compared it to a completely ridiculous hypothetical situation? Thread has comedy gold written all over it Yo Boba, something you wont be aware of. There's a certain skill in talking to girls and knowing how to make them laugh. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Boba Fett on July 09, 2013, 05:14:00 PM Anyone wanna go through every Mantis post and create an ultimate list of every situation he has taken and compared it to a completely ridiculous hypothetical situation? Thread has comedy gold written all over it Yo Boba, something you wont be aware of. There's a certain skill in talking to girls and knowing how to make them laugh. I hear they laugh at all your jokes for £100 per hour Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 09, 2013, 06:08:56 PM All nonsense really, I wonder if anyone HAS actually jammed blind first hand of the main before.
Me Personally, I'd call TT-AA everytime, and AK if i knew the guy was 10000000000% blind, I'd also call AK, if i had 99 or AQ id have a look around and be more likely to call for every hoody and fold for every cowboy hat. I know how incred this comp is but its still a tournament, and you're going to have to make some hands at some point, starting with 60k gives you an even bigger insane edge, as you can reallly reallly build a stack now, and this should have a compounding affect on the rest of your tournament. I get some people just WONT wanna bust hand 1 and call of far too tight which is abso fine imo but IMO TT here is too big of a spot to refuse, even with 7 guys behind. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: SuuPRlim on July 09, 2013, 06:38:11 PM here is another hyptothetical situation.
UTG, UTG1 both shove blind. You calling AA? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: outragous76 on July 09, 2013, 06:44:17 PM Anyone wanna go through every Mantis post and create an ultimate list of every situation he has taken and compared it to a completely ridiculous hypothetical situation? Thread has comedy gold written all over it something like this maybe? http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56428.msg1489590#msg1489590 Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 06:45:54 PM here is another hyptothetical situation. UTG, UTG1 both shove blind. You calling AA? Net Gain +36202 chips. I should think i could find a sigh call. Interestingly, this makes a hell of a lot more hands a fist pump call. Not sure if I'm surprised or not. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Young_gun on July 09, 2013, 07:16:28 PM here is another hyptothetical situation. UTG, UTG1 both shove blind. You calling AA? Snap call, i would never fold AA, dunno how many people would have to be all in pre for me to even consider it doubt ever tbh even if 8 all ins before which is obv not good longterm but we have the nuts! still think KK + is pretty good, obviously we can include 10s+ in theory but if push came to shove KK would be my line. Not even scared of losing/outdraws just as we have so much time to get in better situations where we have more reads/knowledge available. If we were closing the action then it flips more onto i would call 99+ AQ etc as its the perfect scenario. WHO KNOWS WHAT PEOPLE WILL ACTUALLY FOLD BEHIND US, in theory they shouldnt be calling anything but AA but we know they do so we have to tighten up to near nuts to combat that and if they have AA so be it. Also ROFL @ shoe discussion ITT Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tal on July 09, 2013, 09:42:00 PM Shoes >>>>> KK
Someone start a shoe porn thread asap please. (http://www.jeffery-west.co.uk/content/product/867_3_l.jpg) (http://www.jeffery-west.co.uk/content/product/917_0_l.jpg) Phwoarrrrr Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 09:49:41 PM (http://www.jeffery-west.co.uk/content/product/917_0_l.jpg) Someone turned up to my Mums wedding in a pair of shoes like that a few years ago, my step brother threw them up a tree. Would stand by his decision. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Tal on July 09, 2013, 10:01:50 PM Everything in context.
A family wedding would likely require a more sensible shoe. Maybe a nice Corneliani pair. (http://www.corneliani.com/sites/default/files/styles/product_medium/public/product/image/16_scarpe_accessori_web_1440x1920px_72dpi.jpg?itok=GR3w4tH-) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: wazz on July 09, 2013, 10:02:43 PM Ex-gf got me these for my birthday:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BIofeOXCAAAYrLG.jpg:large) And I got myself these from Hugo Boss in Stratford after a good couple of winning sessions @ aspers, came with matching belt! (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BGEM8t8CEAEOm2G.jpg:large) Have been browsing a few of the shoes in Crystals and imagining how much money I would spend on shoes if I finalled the main. Constitutes a large portion of my motivation for grinding this $10/20 PLO lark. Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: George2Loose on July 09, 2013, 10:04:38 PM thread finally delivers
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: wazz on July 09, 2013, 10:11:10 PM Someone start a shoe porn thread asap please. Done! http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61698.0 Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: MANTIS01 on July 09, 2013, 10:34:47 PM Those mustard brogues would get proper fucked up in the rain. I hope you used scotchguard on them.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: theprawnidentity on July 09, 2013, 10:47:35 PM I hope you used scotchguard on them. (http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3087/2563736319_7805e75c98.jpg) Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: biggy333x on July 14, 2013, 08:53:33 PM theres few hands left near the end of the day.
How about if a guys sat at the side of his suitcase (family bereavement 100% not playing following day) and in the middle of the hand( after u given him a !% freeroll on anything u win) the guy shows u 5hi (by lifting his cards) on a nothing board. And ships it Do u call 95% of ur stack off with A hi? Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: biggy333x on July 14, 2013, 08:54:45 PM This really happened involving Doc Sands btw
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: EvilPie on July 14, 2013, 09:45:21 PM Of course. Anyone saying no is just mental.
Title: Re: hypothetical wsop spot Post by: Doobs on July 15, 2013, 12:56:14 AM theres few hands left near the end of the day. How about if a guys sat at the side of his suitcase (family bereavement 100% not playing following day) and in the middle of the hand( after u given him a !% freeroll on anything u win) the guy shows u 5hi (by lifting his cards) on a nothing board. And ships it Do u call 95% of ur stack off with A hi? He shoved with ace high, 5 high called. |