hypothetical wsop spot

[Honeybadger]

I thought this has been answered before...

If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o.
The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation......

and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind.


no?




answer is we dont get in anything.. ever.

its hand 1 of wsop me - no need.

Ridiculous

Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO.

[pleno1]

I thought this has been answered before...

If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o.
The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation......

and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind.


no?




answer is we dont get in anything.. ever.

its hand 1 of wsop me - no need.

Ridiculous

Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO.

I mean I hope you're not serious :p

[jgcblack]

I thought this has been answered before...

If we take the best possible scenario - we have KK vs his K2o.
The equity gained from a double starting stack is NOT worth the 7% risk of this situation......

and that's when we are closing the action, let alone when were not and there are people behind.


no?




answer is we dont get in anything.. ever.

its hand 1 of wsop me - no need.

Ridiculous

Don't want to put your TOURNAMENT LIFE on the line with just one pair. Fold and wait for a better spot IMO.

I mean I hope you're not serious :p

any chance of a slightly more in depth explanation...??

Ive heard many different opinions about hands from wsop ME in the past.
Most of them have at some point mentioned that the main is different.

Anyone remember the matusow flush fold from a few years ago??
He folds on the turn if I remember, because it was vs a rookie.... turns out the guy had tptk with for ntfd.
(The was on the board, it wouldve been over half his stack)


How does your calling range change if this utg player has looked??

[pleno1]

Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj

Most people agreed jj+ I think

[jgcblack]

Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj

Most people agreed jj+ I think

Just JJ+?.......... AK?

[Tal]

In simple maths terms, couldn't you argue calling with 50% of starting hands?

Worth saying that the ME is a unique tournament in many respects. People travel the world over to experience the marquee poker event. It is the largest comp 99.5% of the field will ever play and probably 90% won't play more than a £1,000 comp in their lives, this aside.

So, to the overwhelming majority of the field, the answer to your question would be to fold pretty much blind, because they don't want to be going home in hand one; they want to be sitting down for as long as possible, to experience the occasion, have some photos, play a couple of hands against a name and maybe win a pot or two. Makes almost sod all difference if they get through the day with 26,400 or 56,400, as long as they get through.

If you are a serious pro and this is "just another MTT", the approach must be different and, even accounting for implied tourney equity v the field, JJ+ is a snap call.

Maybe I'm a romantic, but that seems to me to be a terrible waste of an experience if your mindset doesn't allow you to let a few hands go early doors to drink in the moment. You have all day to crush the field.

[Honeybadger]

I mean I hope you're not serious :p

I am offended you had to ask...

[George2Loose]

What if someone jams then someone calls? Range?

[Doobs]

Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj

Most people agreed jj+ I think

Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong.  Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker.  If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB.  This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%.  You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity.  If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind.

Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind.  AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ.  I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them!  If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier.

[George2Loose]

Duhamel probably viewing is we would a 20 freeze

[jgcblack]

Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj

Most people agreed jj+ I think

Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong.  Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker.  If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB.  This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%.  You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity.  If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind.

Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind.  AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ.  I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them!  If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier.

I just quoted what id heard players better than me discuss in the past.

I think id find it tough to muck AA.. really tough with KK and people behind....

I've never played the ME yet, but I have heard of a situation that deals with an interesting early live mtt spot.

A blonde was apparently in an event where a random player 'accidentally' makes it 5300 instead of a call of 300 (1 extra 5k chip).  The blonde in question supposedly then insta-ships his starting stack with 33 only to be snapped by KK.

In this ME question, I've heard people talk about having bets to go all in blind first hand and obviously it would suck to have the AA and lose to J3o.
But it is a 7 day comp after all.... and a lot of people talk about how differently you have to play it because of this.

[SuuPRlim]

AQs, 99+

Why would we fold aces? People talk about the main event like its the holy grail, it comes around every year people, people play a very fragile style in this tournament getting chips together early is (whilst not at all necessary with the insane structure of the tournament) very very good.

That being said it's so awesome being IN the main event that I'd defo shave a few hands off the correct range, I'm with doobs I think 77 and 88 are a lil too venerable but you should prolly go with AJs and AQo as well but I think i'd slide em in on this occasion.

I read that article where guys were saying they would fold JJ which I think is a bit silly, I am all for the $equity of the spot worth more than the chip equity but this is vs 100% of hands, lets say doubling your stack is worth $10k for someone with a 250% ROI,  you wanna take JJ vs ATC $25k to win $10k? Yes please.

[Doobs]

Fwiw duhamel said 77,aj

Most people agreed jj+ I think

Duhamel is clearly hopelessly wrong.  Shows you don't have to be great at maths to be a winner at poker.  If you have a big edge on this field, think you have to fold AK in the BB.  This is because, even if you are against a random hand, you are only 65%.  You gain just over 30% to your stack on everage, and that isn't worth 30% more equity.  If you are truly a 1.5 player this is an insta fold even without considering the possible monster behind.

Where you are are at the table, you have a decent chance of someone having a monster behind.  AA is an obvious call, KK probably true also, think you'd have to do some maths to be sure of QQ and JJ.  I don't think you can assume that people behind know they should fold AK for instance, especially if Duhamel is one of them!  If John Black is sat there ready to fire his aces in the muck, you can be a bit happier.

I just quoted what id heard players better than me discuss in the past.

I think id find it tough to muck AA.. really tough with KK and people behind....

I've never played the ME yet, but I have heard of a situation that deals with an interesting early live mtt spot.

A blonde was apparently in an event where a random player 'accidentally' makes it 5300 instead of a call of 300 (1 extra 5k chip).  The blonde in question supposedly then insta-ships his starting stack with 33 only to be snapped by KK.

In this ME question, I've heard people talk about having bets to go all in blind first hand and obviously it would suck to have the AA and lose to J3o.
But it is a 7 day comp after all.... and a lot of people talk about how differently you have to play it because of this.

you don't muck AA, if people better than you do, then they aren't great either.  

You don't spew with 33 just because somebody makes an error either.  A lot of players are going to compound errors by refusing to let the 5k go, though that is for another thread I feel.

[SuuPRlim]

also John, that person has looked at his cards and decided that they are nice enough to open with, which takes at least 70% of the "blind all-in" hands out of the question.

Reason we're loving it with JJ is cos he has 28, 94, 53, 85 offsuit where the 5300 man has none of those hands.

[theprawnidentity]

Just JJ+?.......... AK?

Looked at this with regards to ICM spots the other day.  From what I remember AK is about 65% vs ATC and 99 is around 72% (and JJ is like 77%).  Because shoving blind can contain a full range of hands, AK won't really be dominating much of his range, whereas 99+ will pwn it.

AK becomes much stronger vs a range that is weighted towards alot more Ax/Kx type hands.