blonde poker forum

So this spot came up with 11 left of the Mini Deepstack...

Background

My table is 6 handed. I've had 3 tables through the day, but only one of the players has seen me for extended time.  Difficult for the other players to know (apart from one via a friend I KO'd) that I've been pretty conservative and chosen my spots. My stack has never once been under threat and I've moved from 185k to 2.6m (2.9m at peak, 2.35m coming to table).

Been at the table about 6/7 orbits.  My stacks has hovered between 2.2m and 2.7m all the time.

Key hands...I check down and folded on river, showing an Ace (top pair) on a bit of a scary board. Raggy VB'd the river and I folded showing A...lots of comments about how I fold...turns out he has absolute nuts.

One hand on btn (versus Villain)...1 or 2 orbits before key hand...I raise to 135 k...he goes 300 k..I 4b to 650 k...he folds (I had KK but don't show)

I've not been involved much at all, probs have VPIP/PFR of 16/16 ie. taking the blinds from Btn/CO once an orbit...although always strong...but not shown..

I do get the impression SB/BB beginning to get p*ssed off...

Villain

Seems ok, has good bet sizing and is one of only 2 or 3 players I think I really need to be wary of in final 11. That said, he seems pretty ABC.

He's lost a big pot or two and has been down to 1.3m...but just won a classic - old dude jamming nut flush draw against his top set. He now has 3 million.

The Hand

Blinds 30k/60k a 10k

Folds to me on btn

I have  8s 8c

I make my normal raise to 135k (from 2.6 million)

SB 3 bets to 325k (from 3 million)

BB folds

Me ?

Options

Fold - pro's....get nit points for fold/show cons...do I wanna win?

Flat - pro's - pot control/position cons - so many flops I'm beat and not happy with

Jam - pro's - force better hand to fold...get weaker hand call (don't think) cons - he has a monster and spanks me

ICM?

Payout considerations are:

1 £10,000
2 £5800
3 £3375
4 £2450
5 £1900
6 £1500
7 £1250
8 £1050
9 £850
10 £675
11 £675

a. Do we take ICM into consideration in a comp like this?

b. Does the villain understand ICM? (erm, do I?? lol)

Ranges

Considering his image with a desire to make a measured play back at me I'm thinking he'd 3b:

a8+, KQ, 77+

Doesn't strike me as the sort to 3b super wide...

Other Thoughts

I do consider folding, as out of the 11 remaining, one is super short and 6 - 7 are v nitty and/or make lots of bet sizing/folding errors. So I'm considering the gaining nit points for my image (worked a treat on day 1) plus finding a better spot later versus 'weaker' players.

Questions

1. Thoughts on range I assign to him?

2. Thoughts on my assessment of the situation?

3. Fold/Call/Raise/Jam???

4. Do we leave ICM at home for comps like this?

Call. Plenty of postflop maneuverability with +40bb's. 4betting is unnecessary, we have a good hand and position so there's no need to inflate the pot anymore or open ourselves up to being 5b/bluffed.

Probably just fold and keep minraising lots. Wouldn't show. I dont think we are 4betting for "value" and we have a nice stack. Could change with reads ofc. Can't really 4b fold and don't fancy jamming. ICM applies in every comp, with every payout structure. (Maybe not winner takes all now I think about it)

Would be minraising pre. 15k extra going to waste here.

Really hard to assign specific ranges here, but we know he probably only has TT+/AQ+ for value but he could just 3bet 67 suited as a bluff etc, Depends what he fancies.

Good post, make stack sizes clearer. We have 2.6 (-135k) and he has 3m? We cant 4bet/fold too happily and have a horrible hand to do so as a bluff. KQ much better but wouldnt bother with that either. If hes just doubled I dont see how he is pissed either! Not a million miles from peeling, probably a bit short. but we are getting a pretty decent price right? 4/1 direct and but not that much behind right? 2.3ish with 800 in the middle. I'd like to be able to peel one and have a good stack left. I'd just back myself to play well from then on and skip a fairly high variance spot. I'd be tempted to pile vs myself though, I'd be 3betting lots.

99 super close dont think piling 88 is horrific but #nitlife.

Think he puke calls the bottom of his value range I mentioned above. Did some postal edits. Big believer in lowering variance when deep, I don't see any option than fold being hugely +ev.

P.S How'd you get on without results?

What is an M of 2 plz?

Having read your post it seems a clear fold


However:

Do you think he has bluffs?
Do you think he has any ability to 5b jam light?

These are really important points.

As for icm, of course you take it into account.

As described, I fold, in game, if I don't think villain ill 5b light then I 4b

Loads of points to address in this thread  - ill try

1. In this spot ICM is only an issue if you are going bust. I assume you are never getting 40bbs in with 88 here therefore we can set the actual point of going bust to one side.

However ICM is important, when it comes to you (2nd stack) vs the chip leader. If he is competent he should be able and willing to make you life utter misery. (this is why I make the point about will he ever 5b light)

With the above we can move forward

2. Options

Fold - probably not. You suggest you have been active, therefore he is far more likely to try and put you in your place. We have opened a value hand - plan should have been to snap off shoves from the shorties and reassess if 3b by bigger stacks.

Call - it has merits, we have position. Really villain dependant here.

4b - I REALLY like a 4b here (even with an xx holding)  - SUBJECT TO THE VILLAIN! If I think he isn't 5b light, then we can 4b and put him in a pretty bad spot. I like to go on the bigger side here (760k), just to make sure he only has jam or fold options. Clicking it back isn't overly effective for that purpose here.


I cant impress enough how much these spots are villain dependant and your image dependant. But there are so few people who will 5b ai here with non premiums its going to work enough of the time. Clearly if the villain is competent, it is an amazing spot for him to 5ball, but not many people play that way.


One of the reasons I don't hate 4b folding here, is that from a  tournament  point of view, being back to 1.9m has little to no effect on our position. OK its not ideal to 4b fold 700k, but there are merits for our image if we do. I personally tend to rely on aggression this late in tourneys.

call ainec

How are we proceeding against 2 barrels on a 2 4 Q 9 rainbow?

presume call flop fold turn?

too many variables to answer this in a vacuum, calling is just the lesser of all evils with our exact holding were getting the right price to call even if we fold every single prob that doesnt contain an 8, let alone being in position etc etc. 4bet/folding just makes very little sense with our hand K4o is better to 4bet than 88 here

I think I make my point fairly specific, that we might as well have xx when we 4 bet, and times when I would.

Im only asking what you do to 2 barrels? Its not a dick swinging competition, im just interested in how you play the hand post if you are calling and we have an innocuous board

He bets 420 and 690 if it helps remove variables

i would call flop fold turn vs those 2 sizings with no other variables

I was thinking this too

Calling is obv fine

I just think at this stage of the tourney "spots" are just as important as holdings. Im not suggesting 4b for value, im suggesting 4b the spot.

Hate jamming 0/10

Call probably most optimal 7/10

Like 4 bet/folding player dependant and with smaller open making 4 bet nearer to 6.5bigs - especially against a random who is less likely to put you in a coffin with hands like A2hh and will have a pretty tight 5 bet range. Think you probably achieve same as a jam, which I think is awful. 6-8/10 depending on dynamic and player

Fold - can never be awful but nitty so 4/10

Maybe ICM was important here !

You committed ICM suicide, welcome to the club! We have all been there!

There was a Simon Deadman quote which really rang true to me (I think in his well), which went something along the lines of (when talking about closing live MTTs)

Its not necessarily about making the technically correct play, its about making the right plays to give yourself a chance of winning the tourney   - I para-phrase because I can remember it exactly

Wouldnt 4bet as a bluff in this spot with this hand. You're chosing a terrible hand to do it with. It's a hand clearly good enough to peel with and you have 0 blockers, only advantage is if you get hood peeled you have reasonable equity vs his range, but not a fan. If I 4-bet this spot i'm 4-bet calling, but i'm just peeling the 3-bet and I don't think it's very close at all.

4b-6b, lego

4b folding is abs ridic for no blockers reasons and just randomly thinking lol we have a pair, oh he must have a higher one. we literally 4betting millions of combos if we 4b fold 88, just gimme k2 or a4 innit.

doesnt matter anyway, its all rigged.

in a £50 live tourney?

fold 3/10

jam 5/10

4b 2/10

call 9/10

Don't understand the couple of mentions that you have made implying that you think folding and showing gets you 'nit points' that will give you a beneficial image in the future.

Seems pretty clear to me that you should never show 'big laydowns' in tournaments. It does not give you a strong image, it gives you a weak image. And it will inspire other players to have shots at you, since you have shown you can lay down a hand. Worst thing that can ever happen is some tight, scared money guy who never makes a move plucks up the courage to bluff you because he sees you showing a big fold.

Best image to have in the latter stages of a tourney is that of a player who will make spite calls/jams vs other big stacks. A kamikaze player who commits ICM suicide, but will take someone down with him. Difficult to achieve this image without actually making these bad calls, but avoiding ever showing a big lay down must be the first step towards this.

My ICM consideration here would be less than 0.

I think I agree with flatting too but I dont think its great if opp is gonna play aggressive enough post flop.  Given the tournament, he probably isn't, so I like more than jamming / folding / clicking.

Lol. You're supposed to APPEAR suicidal without actually being suicidal! ;)

You can take a sick angle shoot by playing anything from THIS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Hate_Myself_and_Want_to_Die:_The_52_Most_Depressing_Songs_You%27ve_Ever_Heard) list, and then 'accidentally' unplugging your headphones so it goes on to loud speaker.

haha

im thinking 4b call for combination poker+ life ev is the best option.

Your stack is amazing, please don't go mental in these spots. MR pre and then peel the 3bet. There are so many reasons to do that. If the SB is mental then you win the planet when you flop an 8. If he isn't mental then you're more likely to get to showdown which is good.

There are some shorties left on your table, of course ICM is a factor with 11 left. You have to take ICM seriously at all times!