I would definitely fold here. Obviously it's chip EV to shove but it can't be a winning play ICM wise I don't think.
More of a gangsta image you have here the better raise fold is. Sure Moorman could raise and get it thru way more than a random. DownByDaBridge defo gonna fuck with you a lot tho.
ICM wise, if we give the following, pretty wide calling ranges :
co : 99+,AQ+
btn : 66+,A9s+,ATo+,KQs
sb : 88+,AJs+,AQo+
bb : 88+,AJ+
We then calculate Hero's range with 0.05 min ev Diff % (or comes to 29.40 in $ev) we get the following jamming range :
(10.1%) 88+,A9s+,AJo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs
When we are jamming that range the correct calling ranges should be :
co : (1.4%) QQ+
btn : (4.7%) TT+,AQ+
sb : (3.3%) JJ+,AQs+,AKo
bb : (3.3%) JJ+,AQs+,AKo
This is based on payouts for Hot 55 so I'm assuming it's similar. I'm failing to see the argument for ever not jamming here yet Pads is saying a lot of people think so, link to thread Pads ? Interested in reasons giving.
Interesting that a few people basically suggested not having a r/f range here but at the same time think anyone who's decent should stick it in hero's eye if we min raise in this spot ?
Confirmed would be fun if DownByDaBridge was jamming 54% so we could make a breakeven r/c

Overall, I like this jamming range : (17.3%) 55+,A2s+,ATo+,K9s+,KJo+,Q9s+,JTs
Thanks for the post. Really appreciate someone taking the time to do some maths work and then sharing it.
I think i'm right in saying that in terms of ICM it's not simply a question of us having a correct shoving range, because (as opposed to when calculating cEV) if our opponents deviate from what is optimal we also lose money not just our opponents. So if we KNEW our opponents were calling wider than they should then we would have to adjust our range.
It's for that reason that this isn't a jam.