the 1.30 looks like there will be a lot of pace on early bold marc (2) thrust control (4) rizcar (1) auto mac (3) all like to lead or be close to the pace and the race may fall into one of the only progressive runners in the field in the shape of No Diminion. He will probably be held up in midfield and try and cruise up to the lead later than he did last time when he won 1/2l after idling with the pair drawing 7 clear. However, theres no way in my mind 7/2 can represent value and although i thought that auto mac needed headgear on its latest run at newcastle, which is has today in the form of first time cheek pieces, i think there might be too much pace on and set the race up for something off the pace. Im basically taking a flyer on General tufto who has won 8 times over C+D the last 6 coming off higher marks than this.
The gelding looks to have been running over the wrong distance recently on turf, and its seen his AW mark drop 5lbs. Back over beloved 8f at southwell and with the race panning out as id hoped i think e/w at 20/1 is a very fair price. The worry obviously is that there are a few progressive types (georgio's dragon, and no dominion) and obviously GT is exposed, but at 20s i could see him running a race.
e/w general tufto 1.30 southwell. 20/1 at 365 at the time of typing.
after suddenly realising how much effort this form malarkey is ive decided on an early night lol.
Nice write up, if you had have kept going you could have saved me some time lol.
That said, i couldn't have your selection just now until it had shown me it was back in love with the game, it seems out of sorts and perhaps bringing it back to Southwell might just do the trick.
For me, the selection would have been Eastern Hills if it were near the tissue price of 12/1 but 4/1 its a definite swerve, considering it has made the frame once in its last 10 attempts. You could argue he was unlucky to be swamped for a place last time out at Wolves. As normal he was up with the early pace but never quite got home against a few finishing powerfully. Like you say though there is likely to be some early pace from some of the inside stalls so Eastern Hills might get a nice sit from 7 and be able to kick on, but could also be vulnerable to a hold up type. I though No Dominion looked a comfortable enough winner 3 weeks back over C&D, had to overcome a very wide draw that say and is slightly better off today. So the penalty may not be enough to stop him following up. Again though at the price it's hard to recommend a bet.
There are literally negatives over the majority of the field. In all honesty it's probably not a betting race for me and I would be interested to see if Horseplayer sticks anything up in this race as it seems to have all the hallmarks of a race he would select something in which is not mentioned in the betting.
If I was forced into picking one, I would likely bet Master of Song. It seems to like the surface, its versatile in trip and might be happy to get a nice position off a fairly strong pace.
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