A thread of winter woes and hopefully some cheer?

[horseplayer]

comedy house got a strange ride in a race full of them

ellie in the pink is either gone or not off yet probably bit of both

harry buckle ran fine just found one to good

running total = £1612.12

[horseplayer]

8.50 kempton isnt a bad class 4 contest and i fancy two at big prices against the field

lets be fair the favourite Take cover hasnt done anything wrong 4-4 is quite some record even in low grade events. The fact this horse keeps having long breaks between runs worries me a bit though as something must be fragile certainly has the ability to win this

SHIFTING STAR has been an admirable handicapper for john bridger, basically always tries its best doesnt drop a lot in the weights because like many from the stable has maintained a good run of form for a long time now. For me I an Mongan coming back on for a 7lb claimer could be the key the horse responds well to mongan as it needs a hardish ride should be staying on well from a good draw..

LUJEANIE is a similar type of horse consistent has run well all year, you couldnt really say the horse is well handicapped but this is an easier race than its had for a while. The stable had two winners last week for this apprentice and the course and distance and again draw is fine


£10 win s star 20-1 general
£10 win Lujeanie 25-1 general

thanks all

[horseplayer]

early look at tommorow decent looking card at my beloved southwell

2.00 is a class 6 mile event

the exposed ones that run here all winter could win but trying to predict some of those is nigh on impossible. I like MUBTADI at 9-1 first time in this bottom grade has been running in much better races all season trainer appears to have turned the corner and more importantly dr fong the sire has a more than decent record here. I suspect the horse is more than a bit quirky but sometimes the time to catch these types are first run here hopefully will be ridden more aggressively than of late. CHRONIC FLAME is also by a good southwell sire is unexposed good trainer (rare to send one here) and is worthy of a saver at 5-1


£30 win MUBTADI 9-1 BET365 £10 WIN CHRONIC FLAME 5-1 BET365

probably at least one  more bet there tommorow to come

[action man]

on a rare night off from poker im gonna spend some solid time on the southwell card, and go through some videos (may aswell get some usage from the RP subs) hope you dont mind me sharing my thoughts.

[AceHighSuited]

on a rare night off from poker im gonna spend some solid time on the southwell card, and go through some videos (may aswell get some usage from the RP subs) hope you dont mind me sharing my thoughts.

Looking forward to this, should make some interesting reading.  Might even fire a few in myself as I quite enjoy Southwell. 

[action man]

the 1.30 looks like there will be a lot of pace on early bold marc (2) thrust control (4) rizcar (1)  auto mac (3) all like to lead or be close to the pace and the race may fall into one of the only progressive runners in the field in the shape of No Diminion. He will probably be held up in midfield and try and cruise up to the lead later than he did last time when he won 1/2l after idling with the pair drawing 7 clear. However, theres no way in my mind 7/2 can represent value and although i thought that auto mac needed headgear on its latest run at newcastle, which is has today in the form of first time cheek pieces, i think there might be too much pace on and set the race up for something off the pace. Im basically taking a flyer on General tufto who has won 8 times over C+D the last 6 coming off higher marks than this.
The gelding looks to have been running over the wrong distance recently on turf, and its seen his AW mark drop 5lbs. Back over beloved 8f at southwell and with the race panning out as id hoped i think e/w at 20/1 is a very fair price. The worry obviously is that there are a few progressive types (georgio's dragon, and no dominion) and obviously GT is exposed, but at 20s i could see him running a race.

 e/w general tufto  1.30 southwell. 20/1 at 365 at the time of typing.


after suddenly realising how much effort this form malarkey is ive decided on an early night lol.

[Marky147]

 

[AceHighSuited]

the 1.30 looks like there will be a lot of pace on early bold marc (2) thrust control (4) rizcar (1)  auto mac (3) all like to lead or be close to the pace and the race may fall into one of the only progressive runners in the field in the shape of No Diminion. He will probably be held up in midfield and try and cruise up to the lead later than he did last time when he won 1/2l after idling with the pair drawing 7 clear. However, theres no way in my mind 7/2 can represent value and although i thought that auto mac needed headgear on its latest run at newcastle, which is has today in the form of first time cheek pieces, i think there might be too much pace on and set the race up for something off the pace. Im basically taking a flyer on General tufto who has won 8 times over C+D the last 6 coming off higher marks than this.
The gelding looks to have been running over the wrong distance recently on turf, and its seen his AW mark drop 5lbs. Back over beloved 8f at southwell and with the race panning out as id hoped i think e/w at 20/1 is a very fair price. The worry obviously is that there are a few progressive types (georgio's dragon, and no dominion) and obviously GT is exposed, but at 20s i could see him running a race.

 e/w general tufto  1.30 southwell. 20/1 at 365 at the time of typing.


after suddenly realising how much effort this form malarkey is ive decided on an early night lol.

Nice write up, if you had have kept going you could have saved me some time lol. 

That said, i couldn't have your selection just now until it had shown me it was back in love with the game, it seems out of sorts and perhaps bringing it back to Southwell might just do the trick. 

For me, the selection would have been Eastern Hills if it were near the tissue price of 12/1 but 4/1 its a definite swerve, considering it has made the frame once in its last 10 attempts.  You could argue he was unlucky to be swamped for a place last time out at Wolves.  As normal he was up with the early pace but never quite got home against a few finishing powerfully.  Like you say though there is likely to be some early pace from some of the inside stalls so Eastern Hills might get a nice sit from 7 and be able to kick on, but could also be vulnerable to a hold up type.  I though No Dominion looked a comfortable enough winner 3 weeks back over C&D, had to overcome a very wide draw that say and is slightly better off today.  So the penalty may not be enough to stop him following up.  Again though at the price it's hard to recommend a bet. 

There are literally negatives over the majority of the field.  In all honesty it's probably not a betting race for me and I would be interested to see if Horseplayer sticks anything up in this race as it seems to have all the hallmarks of a race he would select something in which is not mentioned in the betting.

If I was forced into picking one, I would likely bet Master of Song.  It seems to like the surface, its versatile in trip and might be happy to get a nice position off a fairly strong pace. 

[Horneris]

Good write ups guys, lets hope The General can re-find some form, he has a decent claimer on his back for once.

[typhoon13]

Good write ups guys, lets hope The General can re-find some form, he has a decent claimer on his back for once.

Tufto owned and trained by two mates of mine.

I am out shooting today, don't have one of those fancy i-phones so can't update you with their thoughts.

But nothing has been mentioned at the moment.

Good Luck

 

[horseplayer]

the problem with the 1.30 is full of so much pace that quite often the jockeys/connections see this and change tactic,

however at southwell it is generally the case you want to be up with the pace the race is full of horses who run better here than anywere else if i had to id take a flyer on something like the general but i wouldnt be confident at all..


mubtadi is now the favourite which looks encouraging

This is a posting from terry norman (ex jockey agent) who has recently taken over the race planning for the yard

"Thoughts on Mubtadi at Southwell

Mubtadi  2.00 Southwell

It appears looking at the form that he has been disappointing but there has been mitigating circumstances. He doesn’t like soft ground ( I wasn’t doing the planning then) and when he ran at Redcar a downpour in the morning resulted in the ground changing to good.

But the main reason for the run at Redcar was that he was ill the next day. The upside is that the handicapper dropped him another 4lbs. Thus meaning not only does he run off his lowest mark ever of 65 but also is able to run in a 0-65 for the first time.

The surface will hold no terrors – his sire Dr Fong has impressive strike rate at Southwell – and there will be a change of tactics. The horse has been ridden differently at home (from the front) and that will be the plan unless El Dececy or Elusive Warrior go off too fast.

Ismail  doesn’t presently have that many older horses in the yard to run – we have just 7 to run over the winter with more arriving in January – so the criteria is that each race has to be carefully planned. A 33% strike rate in September has been beaten by 50% per cent rate in October is testimony.

It’s not a strong race and the horse has been working much better with the likes of Light Burst (rated 80) in recent weeks. The drop in grade will help a horse that has had problems but still has a touch of class for this company.
"

[aaron1867]

Great thread, not sure if I have posted here.

But a few questions (feel free not to answer if too personal) as I enjoy a good bet on the horses a couple afternoons a week.

1) What would be your average spend on a meeting/day?

2) What kind of backer are you? I like to smash in the odds on favourites 5-6 times a day and still not see any massive return.

3) How much time do you spend studying? I look at this and I can't remember horses names and how they ran previously and probably go on reading Racing Post on app or in shop post.

4) Do you see profit?

[horseplayer]

Great thread, not sure if I have posted here.

But a few questions (feel free not to answer if too personal) as I enjoy a good bet on the horses a couple afternoons a week.

1) What would be your average spend on a meeting/day? depends i average about 2 bets a day sometimes more sometimes less lowest stake personally would be about £100 highest about £400

2) What kind of backer are you? I like to smash in the odds on favourites 5-6 times a day and still not see any massive return. Not quite sure what you mean to be honest, i rarely back under 3-1 mainly because im not good enough to spot value at that end of the market

3) How much time do you spend studying? I look at this and I can't remember horses names and how they ran previously and probably go on reading Racing Post on app or in shop post. A long time usually concentrate on at most 2 meetings and then focus on race types i like (generally staying races lower grade) at least 30 minutes each race makes it easier if you concentrate on a band of horses as then you have a base to work from rather than coming in cold everytime.

4) Do you see profit?

Yes not every year 4 out of 5 years doing it full time , as somebody more famous than me once said "its a hard way to make an easy living" or something like that. As i posted on another thread recently i made more money in my full time job but i hated every second of it.

no problem

[horseplayer]

action man you mentioned about the racing post videos

not sure if you or anybody else is aware but sportinglife.com now have videos for all tracks available for free

not a big fan of the racingpost myself cancelled my sub recently.

I subscribe to flatstats which is a stats based website and a good base to work from (not the be all and end all). I use a database a friend has developed which is a lighter version of raceform interactive (very good product but pricey and brings even a new pc to halt)

I also have lots of horses in nag me alerts`

[AceHighSuited]

There are two of interest for me at Southwell today, mostly because I had my fingers burnt pretty badly by them on previous runs.  

ALWILDA - 2:30 - I posted this as a selection on the Tips For Tikay thread as one of my first recommended bets.  I was impressed by it's debut performance at Kempton, it done best of Sir Mark's lot when the stable wasn't firing in the winners.  It then races at Ayr and flopped badly asa favourite.  I was at Ayr that day and to my eye it looked like it never liked the surface, pre-race the horse sweated up quite a bit but unfortunately by that point my bets were on.  If it translates polytrack run over to the fibre then I think it should be good enough to beat the others.  Worryingly though it doesn't seem as if much has come out of that first race, only the 2nd placed horse has gone on to win. The price as also started to drift which would worry me, I like to see support for Prescott horses.  I can see Fallon trying to get a lead on Roman Order and this setting the race up for either Alwilda or Dude Alert - who put in a decentish performance on debut.  

5:10 - JOHN COFFEY - I liked everything about this horse when it ran an encouraging race at Redcar back in August it seemes as if the penny was starting to drop.  Next time up though it badly disappointed as favourite,but I think it done too much too early that day and just weakened out the race.  It ran a better race at Wolverhampton last time when heavily backed.  But again we can't survive on getting on 8/1 shots that go off at 3's.   This horse does look like the type that Dandy will squeeze some further improvement out of and he will get a win, will that be today?  The race is full of exposed types and a few seem to do well at this course.  The big negative for me is the jockey, I know its an apprentice race but this girl gives me the fear.