I think west brom are too big for relegation at 7-2 with lad rooks.

It is a little shorter on bfair.

Again it is not really me taking a view on west brom but just a function of how the market rate them. I will happily take the view that the match prices are closer to correct and the big syndicates know what they are doing, and it is just a case of the derivative market  (in this case the relegation price) not updating as it should.

The market absolutely hates west brom, for example Watford went off a shorter price at home to Southampton than west brom are priced at home to them in a couple of weeks, and look at the disparity in their respective relegation prices. Of course their are always other factors such as west brom are a point better off but I think it illustrates the point.

Also Norwich and Bournemouth look to short for relegation given how popular they are with the market.

Of course it is possible that the big players are making a mistake or match prices are overshooting, but without doubt their is a disparity here and I know which prices I trust to be more efficient.

Thoughts?

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed.  

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

I really don't understand and find it laughable that people think bookies should honour obvious palpable errors. What if there is a software glitch and a price of 10,000,000-1 was published online for chelsea to beat west brom. Do we think  any bets should be honoured and the company should pay out a few billion? If a builder issues us a quote and leaves a few zeros off, do we think that he should do the job for a tenner rather than ten grand? If we go to a restaurant and the  waiter punches In £1.20 rather than £120 into the card machine initially do we think that it is our right to just pay the £1.20 as it was his mistake?

People really need to get real.

Not a recommendation a such but what do we think of arsenal at 9-2 for the league?

This is not based on my opinion at all ( in fact my opinion which is admittedly worth nothing is that I don't particularly fancy them) but.....

They are 5-5.1 on bfair so beating the price by a decent amount.

I don't think the actual result has any bearing either but it is interesting that arsenal went off favourites after being dogs all week. Can we read much into this?  Do the syndicates rate arsenal higher then than the ante post market would imply? Or is it just a situational market move based on the individual game. (A decent twitter judge has made the same point)

Thoughts?

I see reports that he has missed a couple of drug tests before the Olympics, although to be fair it is not that uncommon a occurrence. With the Salazar thing saga hanging over him as well,  what price (not the price of being officially caught) do you make him to have ever  taken performance enhancing drugs?

4/6 shot for me

Maths question for Doobs (or anyone else more intelligent than myself!).  This is frying my brain.  Help needed.

Right.  Top NE club.  Assume all my calcs are correct for what i am going to say to keep it simple.  I know there are potential GD issues with this which i have ignored for now as they are not that important in most spots.

If Sunderland lose tonight to Arsenal the following prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 43%
Newcastle 48.4%
Hull 8.6%




If sunderland draw tonight (16.7% chance) the prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 38.2%

If Sunderland win tonight (8.3% chance) Sunderland have won this market prior to Sunday's games.

What are the prices of each of the 3 teams in the top NE market pre tonight's game assuming my calcs?

No one else has had a go and been doing this on the phone and would need to go through figures again and wouldn't be 100% confident but using your calls I came out with:

Sunderland - tad shorter than 10/11
Newcastle 6-4
Hull 14-1

One for the short odds boys......

No good for fred (or myself) but SCUY have Lionel messi at 1/16 to still be at barca after the summer transfer window closes

Obviously with bets like this hard to break down it down and analyse as we would on other things and quantify the likelihood of him staying/leaving but this price looks absolutely huge,  obviously a drawback of having to wait 3 months to collect but you certainly won't be getting 6% in the bank!

Any views?

Link please. What is his contract situation?

http://www.skybet.com/football/transfer-specials/event/17240840

Got my £5 on.

Can't get on, but this seems a fairly daft bet.  There have been a few rumours he might go already this year and he is more likely to transfer than not before the end of his career?  So to me it just seems about the right price and you get more money than the bank because there is a bigger likelihood you aren't getting your money back.  Just because something is very likely doesn't make it a certainty.  

It feels different to the Arbboy short things anyway.  

Fair enough a difference of opinion but that is the thing about bets like this, they are very subjective. These rumours were simply a case of him following chelsea on twitter, admittedly that would have been done for a reason, ie send barca a message but nothing more to it than that and there certainly hasn't been any firm speculation as far as I can see. What likelihood there is of him leaving before the end of career is fairly irrelevant IMO. For what it's worth I think he is massively odds against to ever leave at his 'peak' and play for a psg, chelsea, city etc although a move back home or USA is probably likely at end of career. Even if the chances of him playing for another big club are greater than I think, this does not necceserily impact upon the chances of it happening this year, and making it a bad bet.

Of course not a certainty and appreciate it may lose (speaking as someone who lumped 2/11 no overall govt majority, although still that was one of the best bets I have had in last couple of years) but confident will lose significantly less often than the odds suggest.

One for the short odds boys......

No good for fred (or myself) but SCUY have Lionel messi at 1/16 to still be at barca after the summer transfer window closes

Obviously with bets like this hard to break down it down and analyse as we would on other things and quantify the likelihood of him staying/leaving but this price looks absolutely huge,  obviously a drawback of having to wait 3 months to collect but you certainly won't be getting 6% in the bank!

Any views?

Link please. What is his contract situation?

http://www.skybet.com/football/transfer-specials/event/17240840

One for the short odds boys......

No good for fred (or myself) but SCUY have Lionel messi at 1/16 to still be at barca after the summer transfer window closes

Obviously with bets like this hard to break down it down and analyse as we would on other things and quantify the likelihood of him staying/leaving but this price looks absolutely huge,  obviously a drawback of having to wait 3 months to collect but you certainly won't be getting 6% in the bank!

Any views?

Not putting it up as a recommendation (although I have played myself) but more for discussion,  what are peoples thoughts on arsenal at 13/8 at home to Dortmund?

This price implies that Dortmund are a slightly better side, and this does tally with the outright price differential and the corresponding fixture in Germany where they went off decent favourites. Despite this I think  it could be argued that the sides are of at least equal ability.

Arsenal  have under performed results wise in the league; despite this, their metrics are very impressive and imply that they are still a very decent side who have been unfortunate so far this season. Dortmund have won all of their CL games whilst being abysmal in the league where they lie in 16th position. Whilst they are clearly are in a false position and are a lot better than that, something is clearly not quite right.

Both teams have significant injury concerns, arsenal  will be without Wilshere and Martinez will deputise in goal, although they are boosted by the return to the squad of koscielny. Dortmund  have perhaps bigger problems with Reus being out long term, and have doubts over Hummels, Bender, Blaszczykowski.

Whilst Klopp has publicly stated that this is an important game for them and will certainly be keen to secure top spot, they have already qualified and the league will be the main focus at the moment. It is certainly a bigger game for Arsenal , although a point will be enough to secure qualification.

Weighing this all up arsenal look a bit of value to me at 13/8, anyone agree disagree?

Well after the team news Arsenal have drifted massively, I recommend £20 at 9/5 with vee cee and 366. I am topping up could get quite expensive. The team news accounts for the drift I presume, Koscelny on the bench and Sanogo starting, whilst Dortmund have bender back but no Hummels

Not putting it up as a recommendation (although I have played myself) but more for discussion,  what are peoples thoughts on arsenal at 13/8 at home to Dortmund?

This price implies that Dortmund are a slightly better side, and this does tally with the outright price differential and the corresponding fixture in Germany where they went off decent favourites. Despite this I think  it could be argued that the sides are of at least equal ability.

Arsenal  have under performed results wise in the league; despite this, their metrics are very impressive and imply that they are still a very decent side who have been unfortunate so far this season. Dortmund have won all of their CL games whilst being abysmal in the league where they lie in 16th position. Whilst they are clearly are in a false position and are a lot better than that, something is clearly not quite right.

Both teams have significant injury concerns, arsenal  will be without Wilshere and Martinez will deputise in goal, although they are boosted by the return to the squad of koscielny. Dortmund  have perhaps bigger problems with Reus being out long term, and have doubts over Hummels, Bender, Blaszczykowski.

Whilst Klopp has publicly stated that this is an important game for them and will certainly be keen to secure top spot, they have already qualified and the league will be the main focus at the moment. It is certainly a bigger game for Arsenal , although a point will be enough to secure qualification.

Weighing this all up arsenal look a bit of value to me at 13/8, anyone agree disagree?

Do not have an account at Betway so no personal experience but some of the stories I have read here and elsewhere seem nothing short of disgusting, and gives the whole industry a very bad name.

However, the reason for my post is that I have just seen today that Alan Alger who has been tipping non league for Betting Emporium has joined Betway as 'Sporting events and media Relations manager. (Thought it must have been a joke  when first saw the tweet) Was surprised that someone, who I presume is well respected within the industry would go and work for a bunch of charlatans/cheats, but I guess the poor guy has a mortgage to pay.

Can the BE boys shed any light, does this mean that he will try and sort out/rectify some of the organisations very dubious practices?

Drogba starting for Chelsea.  I don't hate Schurrle at 11/2 even now but its obviously not as good as I expected.  Pretty tilting.

Based on that analysis, now that Drogba is playing the 22/5 about Drogba first goal for those than can with ve ceee certainly looks a bit too big and worth a small investment

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

this is true, but they don't score goals

a classic metrics v results team (Bournemouth are too, but score goals so the two correlate)

Is it not fair to say that the reason they are not scoring goals is simply down to bad luck/short term variance and that this shot data implies that they are in fact a 'decent team' and when luck evens itself out they will scroring plenty of goals and moving up the table?

Just playing devils advocate and there are of course other factors as to why a team with good shot data may be doing poorly, poor keeper, poor strikers, propensity to shoot from range, behind for longer periods so more likely to be pressing and thus shooting more.

I think it a fascinating subject, and perhaps it was just me being unaware but never seemed to hear much about shot data until a couple of years ago when Liverpool were getting backed in the market every single week while everyone bar the syndcates seemed to be laying them and the team were not winning. The reason they were getting backed i believe was due to their impressive shot data. Now most places i read talk about this metric.

Intuitively it feels like there may be an angle being against these teams but then again these big boys are usually right and know a million times more than i, so vey unlikely to be making too many mistakes.

Would love to know other people's thoughts.

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

It is that time again, fifth time lucky we hope!

Recommend Jack Payne 1st team scorer for Southend at 11-1 with Scuy for those that can (if not first match scorer at 14-1 general) and anytime goalscorer at 11-2 (Billys)

Not sure how the loltraders at scuy (copyright Arbboy)  can go 11-1 first southend scorer and only 14-1 first scorer. I can understand them making mistake in over pricing Jack to score; i mean it is difficult to price every league match, but how can they make a mistake like this. Morecambe are 9-4 to score first so if Jack is 14-1 to score  first he should be max 9.5-1 first Southend scoreer. (15/1.4.2 =10.56 = 9.5-1.) Have they made an amendemnt in one market but not the derivative ones?

Exactly the same reasoning as in all the previous posts, and although he is shorter than in previous games, the value is just as good as this is offset by the fact that Southend are big favourites at home to Morecambe and have around 63% chance of scoring the first goal and a higher goal expectancy than previous games.

Admitedly he had a poor game last week, and will be interesting to see how he fares now that he has become more of a known quantity and will have to cope with teams making plans for him.

All that being said i cannot have him bigger than 13-2 first Southend, 10-1 first and 7-2 anytime.