I like betting out here. You only get action from a 7 or a pp here, but the chances of him hitting a river card are quite slim. If he has the aforementioned 7 or pp, there is every chance he raises now, not being able to put you on the 8 as surely you would have checked that. Checking trips or quads when there are 2 or 3 of a kind on board is so routine that even the complete fish are aware of it. Bet out, hope to get raised so your opponent is comitted and console yourself that there was probably no way to get action anyway if he folds. Winning the occasional monster outweighs the small bets you migh get by slowplaying.

No way betting on here is a winning play in the long run, especially against ABC players - what can they possibly have between them that you are beating?

LOL wrote this post before reading conclusion. I guess that answered my question. I still think what I said and quoted before though.

Im going into check fold mode here, one caller ok i will fire again but two worries me greatly. I just think you behind too often here to justify betting again, you are dead to straight or trips. You may have one of them chasing the flush but not both. I can't think of many combinations of hands that we are ahead of the best situation is flush draw and top pair weaker kicker but that is hopeful at best.
 

          

No way betting on here is a winning play in the long run, especially against ABC players - what can they possibly have between them that you are beating?

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Given the range of possible hands here, I cannot envision a situation I fold here, hand 1 level 1 of the WSOP main event included.
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Thats only 200bbs 

The thing is, if the stacks are big enough, there must come a point against a competent player where middle set slows down or at least thinks that bottom and top set are the only possible hands.  Sklanskys argument is (I think)that it must be bad play to be willing to lose all your money to the second nuts and if you have this tendancy it will be exploited.
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OK then, hand 1 level 1 of the WPT championship too, thats 500 big blinds   

Other thing is, my argument is it must be bad play to lay down the 2nd nuts to what looks like a hand-protecting bet when there are many hands inferior to yours that make the same bet. If you have this tendency, it too will be exploited.

Gus - I think we all agree bad fold - but the Sklansky argument interests me.  How many BBs would you lose with middle set here?  What if the stacks were 300BBs?

Given the range of possible hands here, I cannot envision a situation I fold here, hand 1 level 1 of the WSOP main event included.

Having said that, once he'd bet out so convincingly I think trying to get him to fold with the all-in raise was very ambitious. I think you probably knew that you were taking the arse-end of a coin-flip but frustration got the better of you. In his place I'd have called too. If you won't see through the hand with AQ when you flop an A then why play it in the first place.
Bob

I agree. No way he lays down AQ after the flop after calling a reraise out of position before it and betting out so confidently. Therefore your play amounts to gambling on a  very average flush draw with no high-card or straight potential.

If the table is tight, there's nothing wrong with the raise (if you think everyone will fold it doesn't matter what cards you have).

Now, you have to call 8650 to win 19650. If he has a pair lower than Jacks, or Ace-something, you're getting pot odds to call. However, given that you've said the table is very tight, you have to make the assumption that he's got one of the top hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ - these are all hands which have you in all kinds of trouble. If the table really is that tight, there will be better chances to nick blinds. I'd fold here.

In these situations, KJ is just about one of the worst hands you can raise with if you can't treat it carefully. It's just about the best hand that someone will likely not reraise with. All the hands you want to call will fold, and all the hands you want to fold will call/raise you. You may as well have made your move with 72 - the decision would be exactly the same, but it would have been far easier to let go.

 

Very good post. It's also in Sklanskys TPFAP in a chapter called "don't turn AQ into 72o" I think. It's a great point.

Following on from that, it may be in the same book where he says never raise from early position with a hand that cant stand being reraised. And by that he means either a hand which is so powerful it welcomes the reraise, or one so weak it can be easily folded. This is some of the soundest advice for late-stage tournament poker I have ever read.

KJ suited is a hand you really want to see a flop with, and a call UTG is at least as scary as a standard raise to many players. Calling here might even get you a flop as the guy in the bb might peel one off for free, fearing a monster.

I like limping or folding here. Raising 5k to pass to a hand that is surely better than, and likely dominates, yours (if you are on a tight table)  when there is a reasonable chance of ending up best is wasteful. To call that reraise is sheer folly given the tournament situation, despite the attractive pot odds - I mean, you are only 1 (or 2) to go to the final for god's sake and you don't have to win, so you should be avoiding exactly this type of dodgy situation, and stick to solid, risk-averse poker.

By all means steal blinds, but do it with trash.

You are going for the win. You can't give him a free card in case he has the bare , possibly with a card that has given him a pair on the board

However he may have a made flush.

The pot is 10400, if you bet anything less than his full stack he's going to feel he's got the odds to hit a flush

Set him all in quickly, give him every chance to pass,and silently pray

If he's got the flush you still have outs to the house.

 

could not have put it better myself

     ditto

If you hit middle set on an uncoordinated flop, and someone else has top set, it's quite simple. You give the other guy all your money.

Can't argue with this.

Let's try to break this down.

What hands could you make this play with? You could have AA, KK, QQ, JJ or 33 definitely. J 8 would likely make this play for protection and 9 10 might move in here as a semi-bluff.

How would each of these hands behave preflop?

AA or KK you might call to trap before the flop. So these are consistent. 33, J8 and 9 10 are all calling hands on the button in this spot and so are equally plausible. QQ and JJ surely reraise preflop against most players, not wanting to let the blinds in cheap.  In fact, of all the possible hands here, JJ is the one you are most likely to have reraised with preflop.

This, coupled with the fact that JJ is 8 times less likely than AA or KK just from the distribution maths makes this an absolutely must call.


Awful fold.

Great for you and demonstrates the power of aggressive play.

50p in the jar newmanseye, you know the rules

Completely agree Bundle. Wasn't slowplaying or trapping, just fearful, mainly of JQ which bets exactly same. When str8 card comes on the end, JQ might check, prepared to call any reasonable bet. The only way to resolve this is to raise on flop. My reason for not was simply not wanting to get too deeply involved on such a dangerous board so early in such a long tourney. But with hindsight I don't mind the play too much if I value bet the river. Otherwise I must raise on the flop.

PokerStars Game #3794623072: Tournament #18470010, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/01/29 - 12:29:57 (ET)
Table '18470010 177' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: beslainby (5130 in chips)
Seat 2: 1undergod (5910 in chips)
Seat 3: Adalen (2820 in chips)
Seat 4: Poach99 (3160 in chips)
Seat 5: paintgod (3705 in chips)
Seat 6: cvwarner (6810 in chips)
Seat 7: rsa apps (7865 in chips)
Seat 8: gtholdem (4300 in chips)
Seat 9: AndrewB (10400 in chips)
1undergod: posts small blind 10
Adalen: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to beslainby [ ]
Poach99: folds
paintgod: folds
cvwarner: raises 20 to 40
rsa apps said, "**** players"
rsa apps: folds
gtholdem: calls 40
AndrewB: calls 40
beslainby: raises 160 to 200
1undergod: folds
Adalen: folds
cvwarner: calls 160
rsa apps said, "your doing real good"
gtholdem: calls 160
AndrewB: calls 160
*** FLOP *** [ ]
cvwarner: checks
gtholdem: bets 240
AndrewB: folds
beslainby: calls 240
cvwarner: folds
*** TURN *** [ ] []
gtholdem: bets 760
beslainby: calls 760
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
gtholdem: checks
beslainby: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
gtholdem: shows [ ] (a pair of Queens)
beslainby: shows [As ] (a pair of Aces)
beslainby collected 2830 from pot


This is level 1 of a deep stacks tourney on stars (5000 starting chips and 30 minute levels)
 With 3 callers of my preflop raise from the button, with me having played very few hands, I am not liking the texture of this flop too much. However, I would welcome opinions as to whether you think I missed out on money on the flop and turn here. I definitely think I missed a chance to value bet the river, fearing JQ J9 or Q9.

Would you take the lead earlier in the betting?

Thank you Justin for that valuable and well argued analysis. you know I respect your play and your opinion and I agree with everything you say. At the time, i felt sure he would lay it down and he did. If he did have say, 22 or K9, both very possible, personally I think he flat calls rather than raises. The raise says good, but not massive, hand to me coming from Lionel and I was pretty sure I could make him believe aces, and if I was wrong, well I could still have made my flush. However, having said all that, most of the times I had hands like this in early position I did fold them This was a one-off that went my way, as so much did. Thanks again for taking the time to post.

royboy has the 5

hiid has a medium flush

super borderline this one. Completely agree that 1st in vig is crucial, but only 2 hands to go til blinds hit you - what are the chances of picking up something as good as J9 in 2 hands? I really don't know. If the blinds were 1 spot closer I say definitely stick it in, if they are 1 further away I say definitely fold. Here is superclose for me. Personally I think I probably take my shot with my 7's here and hope to get headsup with them.