Hi chaps,

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Hi guys,

I've been at this table for only 30 hands and have nothing on the CO. I have played the 6 hands I've been in v aggressively, having had decent starting hands and hitting the board except for once, when I bluffed and showed.

CO has lost three pots to me and has just rebought. The first was for half his stack when I turned a set against his top pair after cold calling his raise pre flop from SB. The second (with aces, not shown) and third (a shown bluff) were taken off him on the turn after I'd cold called his pre flop raise and fired two barrels with position. These were smallish pots.

I think he may be tilting slightly, and I'm damn sure he wants to win a pot against me. I know I do when a player continually calls my pre flop raises and I keep losing. So, on with the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP1 ($61.25)
MP2 ($35.55)
MP3 ($56.65)
CO ($50)
Button ($12.50)
SB ($49.70)
Hero ($82.20)
UTG ($51.20)
UTG+1 ($25.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO raises to $2.5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.5, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $4.

Flop: ($13.75)  (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero raises to $20, CO calls $12.

Turn: ($53.75)    (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $23.5 (All-In), Hero calls $23.50.

River: ($0)  (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $100.75


So, knowing that he's possibly tilting:

1) Do we like my 3-bet pre-flop, do we tolerate it, or do we hate it?
2) Do we like my check raise on the flop?
3) Do we check call the turn or do you prefer a bet there? Or do we even check fold the turn?

Look forward to your thoughts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($66.05)
CO ($7.50)
Button ($29.25)
SB ($64.30)
BB ($47.25)
UTG ($30.45)
UTG+1 ($50)
Hero ($54.95)
MP2 ($57.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, MP3 calls $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50)    (4 players)
SB bets $5



SB is running at 11/8/9! But I haven't seen him get out of line at all.

Fold, call, raise?

The point is that if you anaylse hero's actions. his checkraise cannot have been planned which oddly enough he admits is the case.

You're right. It wasn't planned. I was going to check fold. But the bet size felt like much more like a draw than any hand that was ahead, so I revised my decision.

That's really my point and my question. Did the bet size feel like that to anyone else? Even if it did, how much weight can we really place on that reading? Whether or not it was planned is by the by. A piece of information changed my decision. Is that wrong?

Those who would lead on the turn ... how much would you bet, would you fold to a raise, and if called and a non club, non Q and non 6 hit the river, how would you play it? I'm most interested, I think the turn is a real weakness in my game.

Have just looked at stats and almost certainly not a wholly -EV move. Though am not a stats junkie so may have made a mistake.

If you ascribe range to villain as being any two clubs, any set, any overpair, and any ten with a jack or better (reasonable?), then my JT is a 49% favourite. Incidentally, with 53c you'd be 17% against that range. I'm therefore not at all sure that a c/r all in here is indeed turning a showdown hand into a bluff.

Let's assume that I get called 50% of the time and that 75% of those times I am up against a better made hand.

This means that:
50% of the time I win 900
33% of the time I lose 2500 (am 21% to win 75% of the time and 69% to win 25% of the time)
17% of the time I win 2500

This would make it 50:50.

OK, so it's marginal

The problem with checking the turn after you have bet the flop is that you simply open the door for your oppo to bet.....and most of the time he will. Because of this it is almost impossible to narrow his range any further than what it was on the flop. And what is was on the flop was any pair, any 2 pair, any set, any draw, or even 2 overs.

A lot of these tournaments are quick paced early doors as the wheat becomes seperated from the chaff. So you give an oppo a sniff that you are weak, or the pot is open to be claimed, and your invitation will almost never be turned down.

I think the flop bet is a good one. You have top pair and for a mere 150 chips you have cut the field down from 5 oppos to just 1. This makes life much simpler, puts you on the front foot in the hand, and gives you a much better chance of winning the pot. After making such good headway why check the turn, it just invites the situation you find yourself in, not knowing where you are or what to do.

That said I don't like your oppos pot bet at this point, it's too big for anything he played softly on the flop. The most likely holding for me is 8-9.

SURELY the size of his bet helps you to narrow the range?

I don't like betting the turn. I'm trying to control the size of the pot. If I bet and he calls, there are a lot of cards that will look bad to me on the river, and a check call could prove expensive. I'm wanting really to go into check fold mode. But the SIZE of his bet given the call on the flop smells all wrong. Normally I'd insta-fold this robotically, but I decided to tank for a bit and changed my mind.

Thanks to everyone for their analysis, by the way. V helpful. Most of it points to my play being -EV, but there's been some disagreement about both flop and turn, which is always good.

Erm not me you that have quoted. I like Alex would rather c/r 53cc here than j10o, turning hands that have showdown value into bluffs im not a fan of.
 

Sorry mate. Meant doubleup.

I like b/f flop and c/f turn.

Hate cr ai on turn, any decent villain is gonna recognise ur hand aint all that unless you have dinged 108/Js9c which are both tiny parts of your range. I guess most average oppos this works a lot.

It doesn't really matter whether he recognises your hand ain't all that, does it? Regardless of what he thinks your hand is, he still needs one to call a raise, and the whole premise of you raising would be that you put villain on either air or a draw.

I wouldn't necc c/r with 53c, though, Longy, even if I don't put him on much. If he IS on a draw, and it happens to be one he calls with, and one of his cards has your 5 beaten if the river is a blank, then you have significantly lower equity than if you have a pair, no?

i think villian is raising the flop with any hand that would call a CRAI on turn so jammmmmmmm

Are you bluffing here or do you think your hand is best?

I jammed thinking I had the best hand as per actionman's thinking...

Yeah, it's tricky. But I don't like just passively folding - that way I often end up needing to push when shortish and having to race. So let's move away from hero's hand to villain's for a moment.

What does his call and then pot sized bet on the turn represent?

If he's potting the turn to get me off a draw, then why didn't he raise the flop to get me off a draw?

If he's just made a straight, why would he want to scare me off by potting it?

How would you play turn if you had check called flop, Boldie?

PokerStars Game #15537259733: Tournament #78455880, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) -

2008/02/25 - 05:17:51 (ET)
Table '78455880 46' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Villain (2945 in chips)
Seat 2: (3250 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero (2505 in chips)
Seat 4: (430 in chips)
Seat 5: (3920 in chips)
Seat 6: (2350 in chips)
Seat 7: (3050 in chips)
Seat 8: (6070 in chips)
Seat 9: (2480 in chips)
Seat 2: posts small blind 15
Hero: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Seat 4: folds
Seat 5: folds
Seat 6: calls 30
Seat 7: calls 30
Seat 8: calls 30
Seat 9 folds
Villain: calls 30
Seat 2 calls 15
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Seat 2: checks
Hero: bets 150
Seat 6: folds
Seat 7: folds
Seat 8: folds
Villain: calls 150
Seat 2: folds
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 420

Button is tight-agg over a small sample, no real reads. What does the size bet mean on the turn after he flat calls the flop bet? Why would he do this? You have lost a couple of pots but have been neither excessively aggressive nor weak.

If you were hero, what would your move be?

to me he is playing a medium PP and is looking for a flop without major paint he has gotten what he wants and is now shoving

i am assuming the only hands beating you that he could possibly have are QQ 77 and 66
if he had the 66 or the 77 i would of expected him just to call the flop bet in the hope you will push the turn
so its looks to me as the lonly had your worried about is QQ

the range of hands you are beating is JJ TT 99 88 55 44 33 22

personally i call here unless i have a major read on him

so 99% if time its an instacall

Thanks for the detailed analysis which the post probably didn't deserve. JJ was beaten though, and although I know I shouldn't be results oriented, I just wanted to check there wasn't a major flaw in my thinking.

Ach, am an eejit. Meant to say first hour; it's level 4. Does that make a difference? Prob not...

no. clear fold. seriously why is there even a thread about this?

Because yesterday I was all tilted up and really doubting my ability to make any correct decision at any poker game on any table at any level. Unfortunately it's carried through today. To the extent that I don't know whether your "clear fold" is sarcastic or not! Maybe there should be a hand analysis for tilting donks...

no. clear fold. seriously why is there even a thread about this?

Because yesterday I was all tilted up and really doubting my ability to make any correct decision at any poker game on any table at any level. Unfortunately it's carried through today. Maybe there should be a hand analysis for tilting donks.