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16  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 16, 2010, 05:01:38 PM
I havent replied till now because I went out last night and was in a pretty bad mood.  Ive also had a few things to do this morning and wanted to re read a few messages before I posted.  I dont feel that I have to reply but seeing as this is now over 13 pages of crap written its probably best that I do.  Ill try to answer as many questions that I can and hopefully put a finish on this so we can move on a bit.

Firstly Mark, and im assuming your Mark Wilson, I really dont know why you have this passionate hate for me.  Im not sure if you remember but around a year ago at DTD you had been drinking a bit and decided to sit at a cash game where I was playing whilst waiting for George to finish in the comp.  You simply sat down and played 6 hands in an hour and instead of playing you simply threw abuse at me for an hour.  I sat there and took assuming you were drunk and not really sure who you were.  The comments from you such as "I know who you are but im not telling you who I am" etc I found a bit weird.  It got to the point where 2 people and the dealer complained about the abuse and eventually 2 left because of it and then the game broke.  IIRC I had never spoken to you before nor even been at the same table.  So I can only assume that you hate me because your not known as "The Betfair Guy", im not claiming I am either but the sucess of this has to be the reason. 

As for some of your questions and other points you make, I think they have all been covered by other investors but if not ill try to cover most of them from memory.

I have never claimed to have any "information sources".  It is simply myself pricing up games and assuming / guessing / thinking which way the markets will move.  I apologise to my investors if they were led to believe different but I think this is quite clear on the OP and to all the investors that came on board.  I do however have places I look for reseeach / information / stats on the Internet and I have a spreadsheet of previous movements which I consult when certain factors are involved.

This South Korea vs Greece game, seems to be quite a big point for you.  It seems as if I have made a big mistake in missing this game, and yes, we could have made a big profit on this game.  I apologise to my investors if they were under the impression that I would be working on this trading 24/7 and treating it as my main job.  I also apologise if they thought I would be trading every single game, or if they thought I would be sacrificing my social life to do this.  As Simon Galloway points out on page 101, 2 posts off the bottom, he is quite clear as to what he expected and although I am annoyed I didnt see this one Im not going to apologise too much for it.  As already stated the whole of Saturday was going to be out for me, but I thought I would try to do the England game as previously it had worked well for me and more importantly the timing of the game wouldnt interfere at all with the rest of the day.

You also state that poker players have asked you about this.  I have no problem with you giving your advice but why dont you keep it to those that ask?  If you want to say im a joke and dont know what im doing to individuals that ask you directly then by all means tell them that, after all it is your opinion and you are entitled to it.

You keep saying you have no axe to grind, but to myself and others it seems you clear do, from the events at DTD to over 14 pages of this now.

Your next point says you went to bet that I dont have a 2% commision account on page 91.  I have never claimed to have a 2% account and infact I hope I was quite open that this would be a new account and therefore the commision would have to start on 5%.  Again if I havent made this clear to anyone then I apologise.  Within the same point you claim I need staking for this.  The quite simple fact is that I dont.  This was however an experiment at the start of the season and again I hope I highlighted this quite well.  I wasnt sure if it was going to a sucess or not but I explained what I was hoping to do.  I didnt beg for staking nor did I force anyone to join.  The blonde forum has a great spirit about it and I believe investors saw an opputunity to hopefully make a few quid whilst having something to follow for the football season.  I hope I nevr portrayed this as a get rich quick scheme as this was never likely, but again if I did to anyone then I apologise.

For some weird reason you seem to think I have to know people to be good at this.  Your right, I probably dont know the top 5 players but I certainly know the number 1, and although I dont speak to him apart from when I see him maybe 2 or 3 times a year I dont see what this proves.   Why do I need to these players to make a profit?  Dont get me wrong it would help but its not a definate need.

Next point - Evilpie you are a %£$&, you well know im not in my 30's, simply my late 20's who had a tough paper round.

I think the next point you move onto was the roulette.  Its probably best that you dont listen to rumour like this but on this instance you are half correct.  Yes I did have a little play on the roulette and yes it was on the 28/29 section but it was £!k a spin and nor was it £50 notes.  I chucked over a bag of £20 notes that I had won at the cash game that night at DTD and spent just over half of it on around 4 or 5 spins.  I really dont see what I do with my cash is anyone business.

Next point - Staking.  I think this one has annoyed a few people as some of the greatest players in the World are staked, and each have their own reasons.  On some of the bigger events I like to sell a few % and for the cash game in Vegas I have sold half of my action.  There are many a reason why people get staked and normally lack of funds isnt one of them.  I could be mistaken but I believe Flushy is staked, Dubai is staked and even some of the Full Tilt red pros are staked full time.  I dont see staking as a weakness at all and so long as people are happy to stake me for certain events then ill keep offering it.  I still look at poker a sbeing a hobby.  A hobby that has produced me some good results and some very profitable ones.  I dont rely on poker for an income and maybe this is one of the reasons why I have had a few results.

Then we have the whole MSN convo with Iwillwinlots.  Personally for you to state the convo once he has asked you specificaly not to was pretty wrong.  I have had a few PM's with him and although he knows im annoyed with the situation, it doesnt change anything.  He has asked to cash out and I have made him aware of the situation, he will get his money as soon as it arrives.  Although sadly he didnt make as much money as some, he has still made money.  The return isnt huge but £150 profit on a £700 for a few months is still more than reasonable and certainly alot more than what he would receive in the bank.

I believe the next point was about having the money in your account.  Funnily enough I dont see this as an option. 

I do feel slightly annoyed that everyone was hucky dory on here for around 7 or 8 months but as soon as I have 3 losers on the trot then people suddenyl want to see screenshots.  No-one ever questioned anything while things were going well but know its all different.  As I stated in the opening thread I would be happy to provide statements or even open the account up to people whilst at DTD.  I believe I have done this for 3 people involved and also 2 different people have watched me trade out of a game at DTD including Colchester Kev.  I do find it a bit insulting that people know want to see things but as said before I will do it.  I certainly wont be posting anything up on here for everyone to see but will happily supply things for investors only to see.

Finally it now seems that you are making MSN convo's up to further make me look bad.  I really dont see why your doing this but you really shouldnt involve others into this.  Tighty has confirmed that the other convo's didnt happen so why put this?

Im hoping this covers everything as I doubt im going to make such a reply again.  This really has annoyed me which is probably what you set out to achieve.  Again I just like to point out a few key statements: -

I have never claimed to know anyone that moves markets
I have never claimed to have a 2% account
I dont charge for what im doing
Im only doing this from my own judgement and was an experiment at the start of the season
I do have some money myself invested in this
I stand to gain a lot of knowledge from doing this which will help in other areas
I stand to gain an account that has a reduced commision.
17  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 05:29:44 PM
The reason i am getting involved is because 3 or 4 poker players have asked me whether they should invest in this 'scheme' 2 of whom were going to invest substantial 4 figure sums and are good friends. They all respect my knowledge of sports betting given my success in the field.  I have no needle with anyone here but i am giving a balanced opinion from someone who has worked at the sharp end of this game for 10 years on both sides of the fence as a trading director/senior trader for firms and for myself in the markets.   I have a personal bf account which is miles into 2% and i have never been staked in my life preferring to do it the 'proper way' through hard work and solid bankroll management from a 4 figure starting bank at the start.

I have watched this thread for a while now after the poker players above asked for my advice some months ago and just dont see how the investment manager has any edge doing what he does.  

For a start i would be happy to lay a big price he hasnt got a 2% bf account to start with which automaticaly reduces the bottom line profit straight away quite substantially over a season or in a reverse angle of thinking means he has to be more successful than a 2% punter to return the same level of return to them.  Given he needs staking for this operation it would virtually impossible for his account to be anywhere 2% given the volume needed to be a 2% punter on bf and secondly given he is not a position taker on this operation i am assuming he is a 'green up' merchant on other betfair biz therefore making his commission level higher because of the way the bf commission structure rewarding position takers which he isnt.

Secondly does the investment manager actually know anyone who's money actually move these markets?    I would be pretty confident in outside of Tony Bloom he couldnt name 5 people who make their living in the uk from betting soccer and are responsible for the market moves due to their success/skill in pricing games up. I am assuming he doesnt have the necessary skill they have to confidently price up games to the accuracy levels they do therefore he has to rely on other 'edges' to make a profit.  I can only assume from his non involvement in the biggest gamble of the world cup by a mile preferring to focus on a rock solid eng v USA match which was never going to move at all that he does know no one ine the game who moves these markets otherwise he would have been all over the korea game like a ash.  just do the maths on his total bank going on that game at 3.3 and greening up around 2.7 and then work out how much profit was lost.  even if u assume 3.2 and 2.8 to avoid the extremes its still massively substantial.



There is still no reason at all for you to be getting involved.  You say you have 3 or 4 poker players that want to get involved ...... fine - tell them its no good and be done, but there  is no need to come on here and abuse what I have been doing.

The fact that you say you have 3 or 4 poker players wanting to invest "substantial" 4 figures I wanted to lol a bit.  I already have numerous poker players involved, some currently the best in the country and they have 5 figure sums involved, so they obviously feel comfortable in doing this.

I also have never, ever claimed to have a 2% comission rate.  Infact I think on atleast 8 different occasions I have stated via pm exactly what the current comission level is.  I have also stated, if you had bothered to read the thread that this is a new account and therefore it would start of 5% commision.  I have also stated numerous times the reasons why I was doing this and why it is in a different account to my main betfair account.

Yes I know a few people who moves the markets but why do I have to know them to know which way the markets will go?

All in all, your not welcome on this thread and generally after your episode on selling the WSOP package I havent actually seen how you have contributed to this forum as a whole.
18  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 05:01:09 PM
To be fair he does have a point- investing funds into the England game meaning that they are tied up for the Korea game was a mistake- Korea were 6-4 in places with the bookies early on but 2-1 and higher in others, so the market clearly hadnt settled and I had them as a certain market mover, where as the England game was harder to call in terms of trading due to a few factors. Plus the upside to a Korea market move was far more substantial than an England market move/drift. Englands price couldnt move 20 spots ever, whilst the Koreans definitely could.

Even the best make mistakes Blatch Smiley

You may well be right Dave. 

The reason I didnt do the Greece game isnt because of any gambling or betting factors its simply because of my whereabouts on the day.  I didnt want to be out for a mates birthday and having to worry about trading out of poisitions etc.  Leicester races had arranged the day so that the England game would be shown on a big screen at the racecourse after the racing had finished.  Therefore I knew this would give me enough time to trade out of the England game without any hassle.
19  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 04:00:37 PM
can i ask what your information sources are?  and why u had no involvement on the game which anyone who is anyone knew the sharps were going to back heavily S Korea v Greece and move the market substantially (nearly half a goal in asia which is huge in a game of this standard) yet your investment fund never got involved in the game which is most suitable for 'riskfree' pre match greening up.  I can only assume this is what i have always thought it was just a guessing game pre match of which way the market would go without any real knowledge of the market or whose money actually moves the market.

Because the money was tied up in the England game later that day.

On Saturday I was out at Leicester races all day so took the option to do the England game instead of trying to do more than one.

As for the information sources - no you can't.  I dont believe you are involved in this, my apologies if you are, but Im not going to disclose what, or how, I use or receive information.

I must be pretty good at guessing Smiley

Ah right, so he basically points out where you went wrong, accuses you of guessing then asks for your secrets.

Pretty much but it goes a bit deeper than that.
20  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 03:53:25 PM
can i ask what your information sources are?  and why u had no involvement on the game which anyone who is anyone knew the sharps were going to back heavily S Korea v Greece and move the market substantially (nearly half a goal in asia which is huge in a game of this standard) yet your investment fund never got involved in the game which is most suitable for 'riskfree' pre match greening up.  I can only assume this is what i have always thought it was just a guessing game pre match of which way the market would go without any real knowledge of the market or whose money actually moves the market.

Because the money was tied up in the England game later that day.

On Saturday I was out at Leicester races all day so took the option to do the England game instead of trying to do more than one.

As for the information sources - no you can't.  I dont believe you are involved in this, my apologies if you are, but Im not going to disclose what, or how, I use or receive information.

I must be pretty good at guessing Smiley
21  Poker Forums / Best of blonde / Re: The Funk for Flushy thread on: June 15, 2010, 03:09:58 PM
hard lines flushy but still an epic result
22  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 02:55:40 PM
Blatch,

I was just looking through the thread and was wondering what you put the recent run down to.

For example, the trading began on August 15th 2009 and between that date and November 4th, you had 26 straight successful trades before incurring the first loss.

Since February, 17 games have been traded with 9 wins and 8 losses, though I think anyone who invested in that period would be in the - .

Is it changes with BF? Are you not getting info from an old source? Is it simply a case of running real bad? Are you not being selective enough with matches you're trading?



Good few points there.  Dont get me wrong the start we had here was unthinkable really. The run was awesome and the ball certainly started rolling well and everyone was thinking it was an easy game to do and the wheels have come off somewhat since but the records I have dont quite agree with what you have above.

I havent recorded the dates so you will have to excuse that, but for the last 17 games traded (the figure you mention) I have 10 wins and 7 losses.  Included in those 7 are the last 3 results which have sadly been losses.  So if we take out the last 3 then its still 10 wins from 14 results.  In the second half of the season I tried to knock the volume down in favour of quality but again this didnt quite go to plan although I would still say that to have only 7 losses in the whole season out of 60 games is pretty incredible.


Is world cup betting alot different to PL betting? Bigger markets? More bettors? Different information sources etc?

Information sources are identical and shouldnt change anything.

There is an awful lot more money about, maybe up to 3 times as much and I havent quite worked out how much of an effect that is having.  I think the one major thing that is affecting things is the general public arent betting on these early games, esdpecially the day time kick offs.  Maybe they dont know much about the teams and are happy not punting whilst they are at work.  When we get into the later stages with the bigger teams then everyone will come out of the wood work.
23  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 02:43:38 PM
Blatch,

I was just looking through the thread and was wondering what you put the recent run down to.

For example, the trading began on August 15th 2009 and between that date and November 4th, you had 26 straight successful trades before incurring the first loss.

Since February, 17 games have been traded with 9 wins and 8 losses, though I think anyone who invested in that period would be in the - .

Is it changes with BF? Are you not getting info from an old source? Is it simply a case of running real bad? Are you not being selective enough with matches you're trading?



Good few points there.  Dont get me wrong the start we had here was unthinkable really. The run was awesome and the ball certainly started rolling well and everyone was thinking it was an easy game to do and the wheels have come off somewhat since but the records I have dont quite agree with what you have above.

I havent recorded the dates so you will have to excuse that, but for the last 17 games traded (the figure you mention) I have 10 wins and 7 losses.  Included in those 7 are the last 3 results which have sadly been losses.  So if we take out the last 3 then its still 10 wins from 14 results.  In the second half of the season I tried to knock the volume down in favour of quality but again this didnt quite go to plan although I would still say that to have only 7 losses in the whole season out of 60 games is pretty incredible.
24  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 15, 2010, 01:12:46 PM
Somehow Slovakia actually drfited against New Zealand .......... Not pretty.

New Zealand -3792
Draw -3792.73
Slovakia -3792.73
25  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 14, 2010, 04:04:24 PM
32p sweat on Japan.

COME ON!!!!!

Is that an "even when running bad he runs good" post?
26  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 14, 2010, 03:48:24 PM
ewwwwww

Japan - 2291.68
Draw -2292
Cameroon -2292
27  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: St Jude classic golf - unreal scenes on: June 13, 2010, 11:12:19 PM
Was gonna add this to my Suicide Watchlist thread
28  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Staking - Betfair Football Trading on: June 13, 2010, 08:04:36 PM
Was out all day yesterday at Leicester races and sadly England drifted, maybe someone new about Rob Green in advance.  All in all the England game cost us £1585.  As was out last night didnt do any of the first two games today but decided to try to do the German game.  Germany managed to drift, which I thought they would, by a staggering 1 point which found me backing back at the price I laid at, so: -

Germany +0
Draw +0
Oz +0
29  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Suicide Watch for Someone on: June 12, 2010, 04:51:52 AM
Tonights T20 match between Hampshire and Somerset was on a bowler friendly pitch.

Chasing 104, Hampshire were 93 for 5, then 18 balls later were 97 all out.

Sadly for someone they managed to get £185k to back Hampshire @ 1.01 to win £1,850.

Ouch

Then they were clueless about cricket.

It was a nightmare of a pitch.Almost certainly going to be reported.

 Besides that Hants were always needing 5 ish runs an over, and given that pitch, and seeing how difficult Somerset found batting, .....Hants were never better than 1/2 at any stage, even with 4/5 wickets in hand with 2/3 overs to go.

They needed 11 runs from 33 balls with 5 wickets left.  Trust me that is around a 1.01 on virtually any wicket.
30  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Suicide Watch for Someone on: June 11, 2010, 10:18:18 PM
Tonights T20 match between Hampshire and Somerset was on a bowler friendly pitch.

Chasing 104, Hampshire were 93 for 5, then 18 balls later were 97 all out.

Sadly for someone they managed to get £185k to back Hampshire @ 1.01 to win £1,850.

Ouch
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