Stars, $30+3, early on, top pair on a drawing board, decision time?

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: Royal Flush

How often do you bet the same players in online comps?

once a week.

[LuckyLloyd]

Betsizing tells. BIG BETS = BIG HANDS these days. C / F the turn here. He isn't folding the vast majority of the time. And the times you get called and are ahead are lol rare.

It really is kinda simple, it is conceivable that 22, 77, 88, 87, 108, 107 would be limped on the button here preflop. The sick middler J9 just got there. And your opponent is betting like he wants to inflate the pot. Whether he should have raised or folded any of the above hands on the flop is irrelevant. People play bad. So just believe him, move onto the next hand etc, etc.

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I don't mind checkraising this flop. That said, if all the loot goes in on this flop we are in dreadful shape almost always. ZOMG we have top pair!! It's just not worth getting stacked in this hand.

[MANTIS01]

Looking at a poker situation from your opponent's perspective is useful.

Villain identified our bb flop bet of 150 into a 180 pot as a marginal hand....and he would be absolutely right. So he is now free to call on the button with anything and everything, including floating with complete air, just to see what happens next. We check the turn.....bingo.....Villain pots.

Villain has absolutely NO evidence to suggest we have a hand that is going to stand this bet. We have limped pre-flop, taken a stab on the flop, and now checked the turn. We look weak. In response to that weakness Villain puts in a big bet. He is not betting like he wants to inflate the pot. He is betting like he expects us to fold....and most would.....so a successful play by Villain.

"BIG BETS = BIG HANDS these days" does not accurately account for the massive range of styles you're going to encounter early in a Stars $30 event. In fact, it is such a generalisation I suspect a wind-up.

While it is possible Villain has a hand, it is infinitely more possible that he doesn't.

Betting the turn makes everything clearer.

[LuckyLloyd]

Christ Mantis, in a $30 tournament the best assumption you can ever make is that people are playing their two cards. Talking about our opponent "identifying our flop bet as a marginal hand that can't stand a turn bluff" or whatever is ludicrous. Don't assume your opponent is sophisticated. Assume he is ABC until you have reason to think otherwise.

When people bet close to the pot on a board that has multiple possible draws (even if it is logiccally unlikely that those draws are in their opponents probable handrange) it is likely that they are betting for protection rather than anything else. As such, just assume this guy has it now - even if he didn't have it on the flop. And fold.

[MANTIS01]

Opponents who think is not a ludicrous assumption to make. In this example if Villain wanted to protect against multiple draws he is free to raise the flop. If Villain wanted to inflate the pot he is free to raise the flop. If he has flopped it, then his turn panic bet doesn't fit with his slow-play flop call. He doesn't slow-play so he can pot when we check.....because this isn't slow-play. It is possible the 8 has improved him to 2 pair and this would be clearer if we bet the turn. Not betting means he can do this with atc. Why bet the flop just to collapse to any resistance? If we believe our hand is this weak check-folding the flop is better imo.

[LuckyLloyd]

Actually, no, nevermind. There is no point.

[boldie]

Actually, no, nevermind. There is no point.

your original post was funnier though mate