Another Theoretical WSOP Question

[DMorgan]

Well you're getting 1.15 to 1 to make the call with 22 and you've got 49.79% equity against AQs so its a +EV call.

Some people will probably say how thin an edge this is and that we'd want to 'wait for a better spot'

Most people don't understand how big an edge over the field you have to have to be able to pass up edges such as these

[pleno1]

Well you're getting 1.15 to 1 to make the call with 22 and you've got 49.79% equity against AQs so its a +EV call.

Some people will probably say how thin an edge this is and that we'd want to 'wait for a better spot'

Most people don't understand how big an edge over the field you have to have to be able to pass up edges such as these

against a guy who has played the hand in this way, 4bet shoving 30k at 50/100 w/AQs I think we have a big enough edge to fold.

[GreekStein]

people who say they call 22 here are crazy.

[DMorgan]

But he's only one player at a 9 handed table, and in a field of over 7000 players.

Having a look at pokerstove maybe 22 is a bit of a stretch, so lets say 66. I assume that everyone in the folding 22 camp is also folding 66.

66 vs AQs you're 52% to win if you call.

For simplicities sake we'll say that there is a field of of 4096 (which is 2^12). So to have all of the chips in the tournament you have to double up 13 times. An average player in the field has a 1/4096 chance of winning, so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time (0.52^12) you win the tournament 0.039%

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

[outragous76]

But he's only one player at a 9 handed table, and in a field of over 7000 players.

Having a look at pokerstove maybe 22 is a bit of a stretch, so lets say 66. I assume that everyone in the folding 22 camp is also folding 66.

66 vs AQs you're 52% to win if you call.

For simplicities sake we'll say that there is a field of of 4096 (which is 2^12). So to have all of the chips in the tournament you have to double up 13 times. An average player in the field has a 1/4096 chance of winning, so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time (0.52^12) you win the tournament 0.039%

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

would you call yourself a "math guy" 

[thetank]

I've printed out Rupert's post and put it on my bedroom wall.

[DMorgan]

But he's only one player at a 9 handed table, and in a field of over 7000 players.

Having a look at pokerstove maybe 22 is a bit of a stretch, so lets say 66. I assume that everyone in the folding 22 camp is also folding 66.

66 vs AQs you're 52% to win if you call.

For simplicities sake we'll say that there is a field of of 4096 (which is 2^12). So to have all of the chips in the tournament you have to double up 13 times. An average player in the field has a 1/4096 chance of winning, so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time (0.52^12) you win the tournament 0.039%

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

would you call yourself a "math guy" 

Well, only in the sense that imo its essential to being as profitable as you possibly can be as a player. obv none of this maths is actually appplicable while you're sitting at the table, its just a reasonably simple way of showing how huge a gain you're passing up by folding in these spots.

[DMorgan]

the correct answer is here:

http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65576-18-22/articles/15093-to-flip-or-not-to-flip

[BAM]

2005

[pleno1]

Agree with everything skolsuper sais (put this in your signature quoted by me LDO) especially about the calling range. I think our equity being double in a 1500 tournament is totally different as its a harsher clock and the main event is much easier to obtain chips by winning hands at non showdown/non all in pots as the 3bet shove stack sizes come in far earlier.

[DMorgan]

I guess the main event is a different tournament to most, but do you fold the QQ pre vs AK in a regular tournament? (Stars 100r as an example)

Not really 100% convinced that these huge ROIs are attainable. Obviously we'll never have a relevant sample size as it only happens once a year but from watching the final tables over the last 10 years it really hasn't been the case that really deep structure has resulted in the best players getting all the money, or at least to any lesser extent than a regular tournament

[NoflopsHomer]

Sure ever fold 57/43 edge under regular conditions.

[Jon MW]

But he's only one player at a 9 handed table, and in a field of over 7000 players.

Having a look at pokerstove maybe 22 is a bit of a stretch, so lets say 66. I assume that everyone in the folding 22 camp is also folding 66.

66 vs AQs you're 52% to win if you call.

For simplicities sake we'll say that there is a field of of 4096 (which is 2^12). So to have all of the chips in the tournament you have to double up 13 times. An average player in the field has a 1/4096 chance of winning, so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time (0.52^12) you win the tournament 0.039%

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

would you call yourself a "math guy"  

Well, only in the sense that imo its essential to being as profitable as you possibly can be as a player. obv none of this maths is actually appplicable while you're sitting at the table, its just a reasonably simple way of showing how huge a gain you're passing up by folding in these spots.

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

lol sure is a good use of proportion

An average player in the field  ... so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time ... you win the tournament 0.039%

These are the %'s you should be concentrating on

[thetank]

To be fair to writer of article, it was 2005 and he said call. In 2010 we're still saying call.