Satelite Bubble Spot

[SuuPRlim]

I wasnt Involved but witnessed this hand railing a riend of mine and thought it was interesting..

PokerStars Game #51984015277: Tournament #324299129, $665+$35 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2010/11/01 1:11:03 WET [2010/10/31 21:11:03 ET]
Table '324299129 33' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: $trateGema (18644 in chips)
Seat 3: Richard Toth (97337 in chips)
Seat 4: marroca5 (17917 in chips)
Seat 5: DYBYDX (75765 in chips)
Seat 6: mikki696 (70257 in chips)
Seat 7: Jymaster11 (100510 in chips)
Seat 8: Face333X (19119 in chips)
Seat 9: SHIP_IT.NET (84837 in chips)
$trateGema: posts the ante 200
Richard Toth: posts the ante 200
marroca5: posts the ante 200
DYBYDX: posts the ante 200
mikki696: posts the ante 200
Jymaster11: posts the ante 200
Face333X: posts the ante 200
SHIP_IT.NET: posts the ante 200
$trateGema: posts small blind 800
Richard Toth: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
marroca5: folds
DYBYDX: folds
mikki696: folds
Jymaster11: folds
Face333X: folds
SHIP_IT.NET: folds
$trateGema: raises 16844 to 18444 and is all-in
Richard Toth?

What should Richard Toth's calling range be here?

Both the two shortest stacks are on this table, and one will soon be in the blinds again. Av for getting a seat is 74k. this is pure bubble for the PCA seat, everyone has alredy locked like $700 up.

Sit and Go wizards discuss !

[gatso]

I don't have a calling range in his position cos I'm in the kitchen making a cuppa. then I'll sit down and drink it with my feet up, maybe watch a bit of tv and a bit later come back to see the pop up telling me I've won a seat

[skolsuper]

Good question. Without opening sngwiz I would have thought close to 0%, but it could be really wide cos we're pretty much gtd a seat either way, so I honestly don't know. Btw it might be relevant how many tables/prizes there are in total.

[Rupert]

i mean we're like 99.9% to get a seat if we just fold every hand, where as if we call and lose we go down to 99% or something... just fold everything unless you really hate the guy

[MC]

Yeah folding everything looks good. The only hand we can really consider calling with is Aces. In this spot, where we still have average for a seat and the shortest stacks still have more than 10 bigs there could be an argument for calling with aces I guess.

[DMorgan]

I call with AA because we don't wanna get investigated for collusion and that's the only reason

[SuuPRlim]

So genral consencous is that we should be folding 100%

So, if its correct to fold everything, surely short stacks will just jam every hand and eventually have more chips?

There are 15 left and 14 seats up for grabs....

Can you not make a mathematical case for calling really wide here, given the $EV we get from knocking him out and winning, and if we double him up he;s still short, we're still plus AVerage and there are two other shorties to go through the blinds this orbit?

[pleno1]

call once with hands with decent equity then sit out if lose.

[DMorgan]

So, if its correct to fold everything, surely short stacks will just jam every hand and eventually have more chips?

[/quo

Yep, but how many people actually do this? Nitting it up is gunna be best here unless someone is obv shoving hella wide, then I guess you can call QQ+

[gatso]

So, if its correct to fold everything, surely short stacks will just jam every hand and eventually have more chips?

but this won't happen. shortstacks will not do this and big stacks will call with hands they shouldn't as most people don't have a clue about sat bubbles

because of the whole incomplete information thing there are very few times in poker where we can play the same way regardless of the cards but still know that we're playing perfectly. this is one of those times though, why complicate/spoil it by playing one hand badly and seeing how we get on? just sit back and let the others screw up

very, very rarely this bubble will go on for like 1/2 hour and then we need to reassess and consider playing a pot but we're a long, long way from that point right now

[SuuPRlim]

So, if its correct to fold everything, surely short stacks will just jam every hand and eventually have more chips?

but this won't happen. shortstacks will not do this and big stacks will call with hands they shouldn't as most people don't have a clue about sat bubbles

because of the whole incomplete information thing there are very few times in poker where we can play the same way regardless of the cards but still know that we're playing perfectly. this is one of those times though, why complicate/spoil it by playing one hand badly and seeing how we get on? just sit back and let the others screw up

very, very rarely this bubble will go on for like 1/2 hour and then we need to reassess and consider playing a pot but we're a long, long way from that point right now

Excellent, ty.

[Rupert]

So, if its correct to fold everything, surely short stacks will just jam every hand and eventually have more chips?

There are 15 left and 14 seats up for grabs....

Can you not make a mathematical case for calling really wide here, given the $EV we get from knocking him out and winning, and if we double him up he;s still short, we're still plus AVerage and there are two other shorties to go through the blinds this orbit?

calling really wide seems like a good way to try and bubble.  who cares if he's jamming every hand, if every stack in the tournament is suddenly even then it's a different question altogether

[SuuPRlim]

As played the BB called  and lost to  .

This same player then 3.5x'd into a 9bb  stack on the BB from the btn then timebank called with  and beat    ....

you'll all be pleased to know you will be seeing him at the PCA  next year courtesy of a few 6's....

[action man]

As played the BB called  and lost to  .

This same player then 3.5x'd into a 9bb  stack on the BB from the btn then timebank called with  and beat    ....

you'll all be pleased to know you will be seeing him at the PCA  next year courtesy of a few 6's....

I, for one am delighted by this news and would like to thank you personally by way of virtual kiss (x) for brightening up an otherwise dull night.

[SuuPRlim]

As played the BB called  and lost to  .

This same player then 3.5x'd into a 9bb  stack on the BB from the btn then timebank called with  and beat    ....

you'll all be pleased to know you will be seeing him at the PCA  next year courtesy of a few 6's....

I, for one am delighted by this news and would like to thank you personally by way of virtual kiss (x) for brightening up an otherwise dull night.

Virtual kiss recieved, ty x