Live 1/2 cash game. River spot

[cambridgealex]

Just so u realise- even if u insist he can have the nut flush draw on the flop, which seems dubious at best, the only combos he can have given pre is surely

A2
A5
A8

A5 is a gutshot, so no idea why he is tanking with that. So even if you want to say he can have the nut flush draw you are basically saying his combo of hands he is repping is Ac7x Ac2c Ac8c. Personally i think the only hand he gets to the river like this after dwelling is Ac7x. So when I say he is repping a narrow range which makes it a shove I cannot see how i can possibly be wrong. But you are more than welcome to enlighten me

the dwelling from a good/capable player does not mean hes unlikely to have just the nut flush draw. He could be thinking about raising with the A5cc or thinking about raising with all the Axcc combos u mentioned. If you believe Ac7 is the only hand he can have that gets to the river, then I agree, of course it's a shove.

[Dubai]

Yes but EVEN if u think he can have the nut flush draw- then there is still only 4 combos- thats the point im making. A2cc A5cc A8cc Ac7x.

And bear in mind you said this "No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many)."

So im asking what are the many combinations? Cos obv no-one would consider 4 to be many

[cambridgealex]

". Even if he's bluffing in this spot 40% of the time it's still a fold. In live cash he doesnt need to risk 125bbs (or more) by making this gamble. He is basically just guessing and has no idea what frequency villain is bluffing/has the nuts. He can win 125bbs far easier in another spot because ppl put their money in dead so often. "

I wouldnt even know where to start with this. So il just say its basicallly all wrong

Do explain what is wrong with this. The 40% was off the top of my head, so i'll go into more detail. The pot is 76*2 + preflop (say 30). Lets say 185. If he calls the 250, he needs to be correct 36.5% of the time to break even. Therefore villain needs to be bluffing at least 36.5% to make it a call.

The point about there being better spots is so standard. These games are so easy, you can get ppl to put their money in dead.

[cambridgealex]

Yes but EVEN if u think he can have the nut flush draw- then there is still only 4 combos- thats the point im making. A2cc A5cc A8cc Ac7x.

And bear in mind you said this "No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many)."

So im asking what are the many combinations? Cos obv no-one would consider 4 to be many

OK not many. But yes 4 combos, I dont know whether he'd raise ATcc from the straddle, possibly not, but given description, probably. 

[pleno1]

how quickly did he check turn? i think he has 99, i like a jam

[rick_bubu]

how quickly did he check turn? i think he has 99, i like a jam

Checked his straddle option

[rick_bubu]

I agree I should've probably raised pre. Although more like GBP15 as a pot builder for when we hit a set or to bluff on later streets (as we are in position) rather than GBP30 or more like Dubai suggested. Because that leaves us open to a bigger 3bet from one of the early limpers, negating any implied odds to setmine. Or most often sees us go to flop 3ways or heads up. And the problem with doing this with small-mid pairs, I find is that on most flops when we c-bet, we are effectively bluffing (i.e. cant stand a raise,or when called are usually behind) And the times we do hit our set, we need villain to hit the board hard enough to get paid off (i.e. TPTK, overpairs, two pair, combi draws etc)

I agree people don't tend to tank with nut-flush draws; but then I was pretty sure that he'd raise his straddle with a suited ace.  I know that I probably should bet the turn. On the flop, his lead can be a  draw; but again looking at his sizing 26 into 26 seemed more like a top pair bet trying to make draws pay. However if he did have a flush draw, I was pretty sure he'd bet the turn, when it hit

His range is not just polarised to or air. I don't beat a 5 either. But apart from 75 and possibly 85, I can't see any other 5's that he'd bet the flop with. He's good enough to lead out with 54 on the flop but again I can't see him betting it that heavy or flatting the flop raise on that board

On the river I was getting a horrible price to call. I couldnt shove, because I had tanked for long enough for him to realise that I'm repping very little myself. I called and he announced two pair as I flipped

[Dubai]

If raising to 15 is better than 30 pre so we can bluff later streets, then il get a job

[Whollyflush]

raising the river is pretty bad, bet turn and since hes repping few combo's i think its a trivial hero call OTR.

[Rupert]

why u think it bad whollyflush? we fold out better quite a lot i think?

[Whollyflush]

Well when he bets this large OTR we can safely assume he doesn't have   hands in his range that he does sum sick merge with (we can also assume he doesn't get to the turn with these cards often). Only hand which value towns us is a srt8 (no club) and obv getting snapped by .

Basically his river bet sizing is poloarised so shoving makes zero sense.

[Patonius2000]

I think we should ignore how quickly he called the flop and assume he's polarized to nuts/air and then do a fold or a call, probably a call.

[SuuPRlim]

I agree that he is totaly polarised here to  /air

and I agree also that he doesnt have too many  combo's, so with THIS being said Id take my stnd line of when people rep super thin I call.

However Im struggling because there isnt a lot of AIR he can have imo, we cant narrow his range pre so he could have 74/64/34 maybe as complete airballs but would he lead the flop with these? not convinced.

So the other option is he;s turnign something with some showdown value into a bluff and Idk how often live guys actually do this, like he wouldn't turn a 5 into a bluff would he? or 67/74 idk seems wierd

He just doesnt have enough stuff that bluffs imo so i reckon i'd vomit a liil bit then fold. Im really shocked he has turned 2p into a bluff here I wouldn't expect it from a random live fish - playing with his face perhaps.

[DMorgan]

Really not a fan of raising pre. This is a live 1/2 game, people don't fold so I'm happy to set mine pre. I'd raise the flop a lot bigger to ~£100. His range for leading this flop is pretty strong imo so I can't see him bet/folding a lot.

The turn is pretty close imo. Arguments for betting are that the 9 only improves him if he has clubs so we should keep charging 89 and random single clubs, but the arguments for checking are that its gunna be hard to get more value from a stubborn 7x without a club and if we get jammed on we're in a gross spot, we also make the pot huge when there are a ton of bad rivers for us. I don't think either would be a big mistake tbh.

As played I think the river is pretty much a snapcall. There are so few combos that he can have with the flop action and thats all he's repping

[SuuPRlim]

Really not a fan of raising pre. This is a live 1/2 game, people don't fold so I'm happy to set mine pre. I'd raise the flop a lot bigger to ~£100. His range for leading this flop is pretty strong imo so I can't see him bet/folding a lot.

I agree with this defo I think the value to flopping a set multi-way in a game like this is worth taking a rele passive approach