Plo Wrap and fl draw Deep

[EvilPie]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

[GreekStein]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

[EvilPie]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

So we're assuming that orignal bettor is staying in the pot thus making it 3 way?

We're also assuming worst case where we're up against a set from one of them and nfd from the other.

How about calling to see a turn. If we end up heads up we get it in on the turn.

If we end up 3 way we get it in on a non pairing, non club turn assuming that nfd man will fold.

If orignal bettor re pots and gets called then we pass because we assume we're about 20%

[GreekStein]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

So we're assuming that orignal bettor is staying in the pot thus making it 3 way?

We're also assuming worst case where we're up against a set from one of them and nfd from the other.

How about calling to see a turn. If we end up heads up we get it in on the turn.

If we end up 3 way we get it in on a non pairing, non club turn assuming that nfd man will fold.

If orignal bettor re pots and gets called then we pass because we assume we're about 20%

We can't call because the pot isn't closed yet, i.e initial bettor can repot so it would be pretty stupid to stick 50bbs in and fold after that. We have so few outs to the nuts.

I think calling is the worst option.

[maldini32]

Ok guys remember when i said im fairly sure i spooned this hand.

So the action got back to me and my thinking was call the $47 and get it in on any non-pairing turn, Zsipila then jammed alonso called and the actions back on me to call off my last $150. At this point i thought my hand is fairly shit v 2 all ins....my thinking was one of them could have kqjx and another with a better flush draw. So i folded (told you i spooned it).

So anyway on their backs Zsipila showed   and alonso showed  

turn  

and the river paired up.

In hindsight i think ive gotta go all the way with the hand or just fold when it gets back to me on the flop.

I thought it was an interesting hand.

[maldini32]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

So we're assuming that orignal bettor is staying in the pot thus making it 3 way?

We're also assuming worst case where we're up against a set from one of them and nfd from the other.

How about calling to see a turn. If we end up heads up we get it in on the turn.

If we end up 3 way we get it in on a non pairing, non club turn assuming that nfd man will fold.

If orignal bettor re pots and gets called then we pass because we assume we're about 20%

We can't call because the pot isn't closed yet, i.e initial bettor can repot so it would be pretty stupid to stick 50bbs in and fold after that. We have so few outs to the nuts.

I think calling is the worst option.

Thats me right there, some tekkers are baaad!

[EvilPie]

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

So we're assuming that orignal bettor is staying in the pot thus making it 3 way?

We're also assuming worst case where we're up against a set from one of them and nfd from the other.

How about calling to see a turn. If we end up heads up we get it in on the turn.

If we end up 3 way we get it in on a non pairing, non club turn assuming that nfd man will fold.

If orignal bettor re pots and gets called then we pass because we assume we're about 20%

We can't call because the pot isn't closed yet, i.e initial bettor can repot so it would be pretty stupid to stick 50bbs in and fold after that. We have so few outs to the nuts.

I think calling is the worst option.

I know you don't like calling to "find out where you are" but in this case it would be pretty conclusive.

We're also pretty deep so we're looking at winning 300+ bbs.

I actually ran this through twodimes using the worst case I could think of and it was pretty much what Maldini has just posted.

Personally I would've played this exactly the same as Maldini.

If he spooned it then he's not the only one.

[doubleup]

** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]

alonso showed  

too many itt

[SuuPRlim]

Ok, I'm gonna attempt some Maths

I'm expecting it to be pretty much bang on the money
 
vs alonso if Zsipil folds assuming ofc alonso never folds (which he doesn't) we're calling $102.9 to win $2311.30 so we need ~44%

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   55.73%   332,071   4,590
TT**   44.27%   263,339   4,590

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   38.01%   222,949   10,189
AcKcJT   61.99%   366,862   10,189

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   59.31%   354,216   3,304
QJ9T   40.69%   242,480   3,304


Using these three hands as pretty basic examples we have av. equity of ~51% so the 36% of the ZSPIL is folding we're obv pretty huge to get it in.

So our EV = +$16.10

When ZSPIL gets it in behind we obv give him super strong range, and when he gets it in aswell we need ~38% (Im not going to mess about with the side pot, although it does actually make a little bit of difference)

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   31.28%   179,740   3,891
QJ9T   36.44%   222,825   3,627
AcAKc*   32.28%   193,544   264

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   37.53%   210,654   5,105
TT**   40.60%   253,200   4,743
AcAKc*   21.87%   130,909   628

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   61.23%   350,624   9,659
TT**   31.65%   199,269   5,389
99**   7.12%   40,011   5,490

board:
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   18.84%   104,296   5,452
TT**   41.94%   256,653   2,038
AcKQcJ   39.22%   232,196   6,255


So vs this range 3way we have Av.Equity of ~37%

so our EV in this situation = -$5.15

But if ZSPIL folds 36% then ((36*16.1)-(72*5.16)/100) = $2.09

So our long term EV = +$2.09

So it's pretty much a breakeven play but coupled with the fact that getting it in is lots and lots of fun I would never fold, but it certainly wouldn't be much of a mistake and you could defo make a case for folding being best, however I think that ZSPIL will actually fold MORE than 36% here because of the action in front of him.

Unless I've made a mistake with the maths, which given i've only just up is a definite possibility

Also, its a fairly large EV mistake to peel and fold board pairing turns

[ACE2M]

Also, its a fairly large EV mistake to peel and fold board pairing turns

Explain please?

[SuuPRlim]

Also, its a fairly large EV mistake to peel and fold board pairing turns

Explain please?

basically, if its +EV to go all in on a flop, i.e going all in = EV of positive $, then calling 50 big blinds with the intention of folding will always = a loss of big blinds, you could go allin and win 2bb's long term, or you could call 50bbs and fold on a later street which willl = a loss, so instead of making 2bb's in EV you loose nearly 60bbs with no chance of winning

It's actually a much bigger mistake than getting it in really badly.

[SuuPRlim]

im a bit pissed so apologies if this doesnt make sense ^^^