Sunday Million BvB

[MC]

open jamming here is pretty horrible. r/f slightly > fold >>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

this

[Pinchop73]

Think the given calling range is too wide, something more like 66+ A8o+ A6s+ KJs+ KQo. Either way open jamming here is pretty horrible. r/f slightly > fold >>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

For what reason is it horrible?

It's +2bb cEV (10% of stack), with a 6.6% chance of being called by a range were 27% against?

What is the non mathematical theory that makes this horrible in 2012? (Not pointing this question squarely at Thigh btw, its open to the floor.)

[MC]

Because it's a terrible line.

Do you think the Heads Up Hyper Turbo heroes jam K high every hand 17bbs deep because it's borderline profitable?

[Dubai]

Think the given calling range is too wide, something more like 66+ A8o+ A6s+ KJs+ KQo. Either way open jamming here is pretty horrible. r/f slightly > fold >>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

For what reason is it horrible?

It's +2bb cEV (10% of stack), with a 6.6% chance of being called by a range were 27% against?

What is the non mathematical theory that makes this horrible in 2012? (Not pointing this question squarely at Thigh btw, its open to the floor.)

Already shown the 6.6% is way way higher and being +ev doesnt always mean optimal. Obviously whenever we get dealt an above average hand bvb its +Ev to shove any amount, doesnt make it optimal.

Noone mentions card removal either which does have a decent effect on calling ranges- some "interesting" reads here about how significant the effect is

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/q6-sb-11-12bb-effective-arguments-folding-1255043/index2.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/simple-bounty-spot-brawl-858658/index6.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/lt-card-removal-bunching-effect-simulation-321075/

[buffyslayer1]

Having chips (even 20bb stack) deep in the sunday million is so vaulable. People are so bad they gift you chips, this is not the 100r where you need to take every edge.

r/f is optimal anyway, give the risk of busting and BvB people dont give you credit even for a big shove. Even a fish knows you dont jam AA here for example

[cambridgealex]

Its not even 17bbs, it's 70k at 1500/3000 which is 23bbs! It's a ridiculous amount to jam with K5o. So so spewy.

[Pinchop73]

Thanks for the links Dave, really interesting. I remember reading a similar thread by HU_15 regarding a jam by DJK123 into him. That thread was very interesting too, although now quite old.

After reading peoples opinions, I'm beginning to think that my jam might have been an incorrect decision. :p :p  #understatement

Seriously though, 'knowing' other peoples opinions is all well and good, but I would far prefer to understand the 'why' I shouldn't be taking these +ev spots.

Risk vs Ruin game theory I guess

[youthnkzR]

raise / fold > fold > call >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

[discomonkey]

Your calling ranges for villain are miles off imo. You have put in him folding AJos, id say he is 1000-1 to fold that

4 s+, A2s+ A7os+ K9s+ KTos+ QTs QJs- is probably a more realistic range

i def disagree that random snug villains will be calling off the bottom 20% of that range vs a 23bb shove... i would remove qts, qjs, qjo k9s, kts, kto and some other other hands he might fold like the low axs and kjo/kqo

a more realistic range imo for described player is 44/a7s/a9o/kjs/kqo

ps dont shove just raise/fold vs this knid of opponent

[skolsuper]

Think the given calling range is too wide, something more like 66+ A8o+ A6s+ KJs+ KQo. Either way open jamming here is pretty horrible. r/f slightly > fold >>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

For what reason is it horrible?

It's +2bb cEV (10% of stack), with a 6.6% chance of being called by a range were 27% against?

What is the non mathematical theory that makes this horrible in 2012? (Not pointing this question squarely at Thigh btw, its open to the floor.)

Already shown the 6.6% is way way higher and being +ev doesnt always mean optimal. Obviously whenever we get dealt an above average hand bvb its +Ev to shove any amount, doesnt make it optimal.

Noone mentions card removal either which does have a decent effect on calling ranges- some "interesting" reads here about how significant the effect is

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/q6-sb-11-12bb-effective-arguments-folding-1255043/index2.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/simple-bounty-spot-brawl-858658/index6.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/lt-card-removal-bunching-effect-simulation-321075/

Wrong.

[strak33]

Its not even 17bbs, it's 70k at 1500/3000 which is 23bbs! It's a ridiculous amount to jam with K5o. So so spewy.

In the money in the sunday million aswell!

[matfrankland]

i'd also r/f pre, you keep using the term "mathematically correct" it is mathematically unexploitable but can't be either mathematically in/or correct as there are other factors to consider. For instance with this logic open jamming aces from the button with 100 bigs would be "mathematically correct" but you'd never do it. It's a mathematically unexploitable play but that doesn't mean we can't find a more optimal line to take in order to increase long term expected chip profit. Hope this helps and isn't too rambley, seems very rambley

[Rupert]

You guys know the Sunday Million is really soft right? and you don't want to bust it so you get to play with lots of fish?