6 max 200nl zoom deep.

[pleno1]

thoughts on folding pre?

agree with calling flop 3bet.

As played, I don't think he has a flush, but can have QQ still for sure, very ugly spot, folding can't be bad.

How hasn't he got a flush here?  He's called a big bet out of position on the flop.  He either has a made hand or a big draw, then when the main draw hits the turn he wants to donk lead big into a seemingly nutted hand.
The only hands he can be bluffing with are 56 or some sort of ks hand and i doubt he has these very often at all.

villain is 22/18 playing 200nl very deep. I think he has very few flush draws bet he wants to b/3b and call a 4bet with on the flop. From experience I think people bet and then call a raise with a fd here, the only hand that would make sense would be AQss, but with the As on the turn, this combo doesn't work anymore.

So narrowing down his range that he is happy to play like this.

65s? I think he just calls the flop raise
Jx, 10x, kx ss, I definitely don't think he is b3b/calling these on the flop, alot more likely to just b/call
So the only flush combos which are realistic are KQss, JQss, Q10ss, Q9ss, I just think from personal experience these bad regs play pretty poorly and scared money a little bit and are not ever b3bing here, even for the decent regs they are great hands to have in our calling range, even this deep/potentially putting future money into the pot.

The pot on the turn is $447ish and he leads for $288 which is pretty big and I agree makes his hand look like a flush, we have around $720 effective.

So on the river this would leave a pot size of $1023 and $432 effective.

It's beyond ugly and actually a pretty interesting spot. I still don't think that villain has that many flush combos giving flop play. I'm going to give him 1 combo of KQss and 1 combo of 65ss which between each other can compensate for other flush draws but I think on average accounting for 2 flush draw combos is reasonable giving flop play.

Lets say he has 1 combo of bluffs as well, I think on the river we get bluffed very infrequently as it looks like we are very pot committed.

You can argue a little bit with the assumption, but I think the overall assumption of having 2-1 value vs bluffs/hands we beat is ok. He can have some spade combos occasionally, but he could also be playing AQ/33 occasionally like this too, so I think 2:1 is ok.

So on the turn we have to call $288 to win $735 2.5/1, (plus the money we put into the pot) vs a range that is never bluffing the river and that we improve on 10 cards (could say 9 if we think he always has Qxss) meaning we have around 20%.

It's really close, I'm trying to some what argue for a call here, or at least contemplate it, but first impression

very ugly spot, folding can't be bad.

Btw, if he has AxQs its pretty sexy, blocks absolutely everything, and we're never 4betting the flop with Jxss or something.

[Mondeoman]

From experience id say less than 10% of 10/20 regs have the ability/heart and commitment to bluff in this spot on the turn.  I'd actually think he was a bit of a sicko if was bluffing here but in my experience we are beat here a lot - plus don't agree that were never getting bluffed on the river - the type of player whose gonna try and bluff in this spot is also going to bluff the river sometimes.

Tbh I don't really see any bluffs in his range on the turn i just mentioned 56/ks as the only real possibilities.  If villain was going to float the flop with some kind of marginal/bluffing hand surely he'd only really do it the As in his hand and as that was the turn card it severely restricts the bluffs he can have.
Our hand looks like a set or a flush and even if villain could squarely but us on a set don't think he'd try to bluff us off it.

[pleno1]

Don't worry I don't care too much about balancing and frequency, but in this spot do we have any form of calling/continuing range?