Long term 2013-14 football market bets: Your tips please

[tikay]

I will stop now. Promise.

[redsimon]

I will stop now. Promise.

You should start a diary....oh wait

[Sheriff Fatman]

Compared to Wolves best price of 4/9 for a Top 6 finish, the odds on Peterborugh (Evs) and Bristol City (11/8) look big to me.

The only issue for me is whether it's worth tying up funds for a full season on prices that short, but I like the bets in principle.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Also like the 5/1 on Port Vale as top promoted side in League 1.

Tom Pope and Lee Hughes will bang in goals for fun and I don't see any of Bradford, Rotherham or Gillingham doing anything better than mid-table finishes this season so something like 10th place for Vale could well be enough.

[TightEnd]

Coventry City deducted 10 points after transfer of share in Football League to Otium Entertainment Group

This gives the go ahead for the move to Northampton

[TightEnd]

Also like the 5/1 on Port Vale as top promoted side in League 1.

Tom Pope and Lee Hughes will bang in goals for fun and I don't see any of Bradford, Rotherham or Gillingham doing anything better than mid-table finishes this season so something like 10th place for Vale could well be enough.

wrote this on Monday for elsewhere

In League One, Port Vale who were promoted from League Two last season largely on the back of Tom Pope’s goals and a miserly defence should be much more competitive than their 50-1 odds imply. Managed by Micky Adams the defence from last season is retained and the recruitment of Gavin Tomlin from Southend, scorer of 16 goals last year gives Pope the strike partner he needs. Last season’s second top scorer was much travelled Jennison Myrie-Williams and Tomlin’s arrival should take some pressure off Pope. Goalscorers, tight defence, experienced manager is a combination that makes unheralded Port Vale an attractive option on handicaps.

League One

Port Vale +25 points Handicap 20-1 Sky Bet

[TightEnd]

oh and while I am at it

League Two

Burton Albion 25/1 ew SkyBet and/or  Burton Albion + 17 18/1 SkyBet

In League Two, Burton Albion.

Burton Albion missed out in the League Two play-offs last year under talented manager Gary Rowett. This success led to the departure of  Calvin Zola and Jacques Maghoma joining Aberdeen and Sheffield Wednesday respectively, but manager Gary Rowett and his assistant Kevin Summerfield have recruited well bringing in Rene Howe and Adam Reed, players who have proven more than capable of performing at this level already. Howe chose Burton over a move to Hibs in the Scottish Premier League, which is interesting. I expect Burton to at least match last year’s top seven finish. In Howe and Billy Kee they will have goals for sure, prompted by Robbie Weir and the squad now has a strnegth in depth not seen before at Burton.

Behind the big guns in the league Portsmouth and Fleetwood, 25-1 is a very attractive each way price for a team, and a manager, going places



this was in an article for season long value bets and not just tipping QPR, Wolves, Fleetwood etc

[superwomble]

Tighty, what do you think about Wimbledon +27 at 18/1 or +26 at 20/1?

[TightEnd]

Tighty, what do you think about Wimbledon +27 at 18/1 or +26 at 20/1?

Not too close to it

30 points off winning a handicap last year. safe to assume the club is becoming a bit more professional, experienced at this level especially if not dragged into a releagation battle too soon

Would be a small buyer but don't see it as a stunning handicap

[Sheriff Fatman]

Also like the 5/1 on Port Vale as top promoted side in League 1.

Tom Pope and Lee Hughes will bang in goals for fun and I don't see any of Bradford, Rotherham or Gillingham doing anything better than mid-table finishes this season so something like 10th place for Vale could well be enough.

wrote this on Monday for elsewhere

In League One, Port Vale who were promoted from League Two last season largely on the back of Tom Pope’s goals and a miserly defence should be much more competitive than their 50-1 odds imply. Managed by Micky Adams the defence from last season is retained and the recruitment of Gavin Tomlin from Southend, scorer of 16 goals last year gives Pope the strike partner he needs. Last season’s second top scorer was much travelled Jennison Myrie-Williams and Tomlin’s arrival should take some pressure off Pope. Goalscorers, tight defence, experienced manager is a combination that makes unheralded Port Vale an attractive option on handicaps.

League One

Port Vale +25 points Handicap 20-1 Sky Bet

I couldn't find any standout value on the handicap market as I ended up with 5 teams clumped together at around the 90-92 point mar, with another clump of team hovering around them in the high 80s.  Port Vale were one of them.

Based on gut feel to this previously, I though that Tranmere +25 was going to look like value too but I think the divisional point spread this season will look more like the few seasons before last year where the top 2-3 teams have had 85+ point tallies, which bring the pre-season favourites into the same ball-park.

Donny won the league last season with 84 points, but the 5 seasons preceding this have had winners with 101, 95, 95, 96 and 92 points.  The profile of teams this season suggests something similar to me this year.

[kp24]

Also like the 5/1 on Port Vale as top promoted side in League 1.

Tom Pope and Lee Hughes will bang in goals for fun and I don't see any of Bradford, Rotherham or Gillingham doing anything better than mid-table finishes this season so something like 10th place for Vale could well be enough.

wrote this on Monday for elsewhere

In League One, Port Vale who were promoted from League Two last season largely on the back of Tom Pope’s goals and a miserly defence should be much more competitive than their 50-1 odds imply. Managed by Micky Adams the defence from last season is retained and the recruitment of Gavin Tomlin from Southend, scorer of 16 goals last year gives Pope the strike partner he needs. Last season’s second top scorer was much travelled Jennison Myrie-Williams and Tomlin’s arrival should take some pressure off Pope. Goalscorers, tight defence, experienced manager is a combination that makes unheralded Port Vale an attractive option on handicaps.

League One

Port Vale +25 points Handicap 20-1 Sky Bet

Looks a good bet

[superwomble]

Tighty, what do you think about Wimbledon +27 at 18/1 or +26 at 20/1?

Not too close to it

30 points off winning a handicap last year. safe to assume the club is becoming a bit more professional, experienced at this level especially if not dragged into a releagation battle too soon

Would be a small buyer but don't see it as a stunning handicap

Yeah, I said with the handicaps in place I think it'll be tight, but given that do you think the prices are a bit big? e/w looks good to me.