Strange River Raise - is he bluffing?!

[SuuPRlim]

Strange hand here, the results in the hand are not overly relevant so they are included (and I won the hand, wiii)

I've asked a couple of people whether they think this player is value-raising or bluffing on the river, opinion is split fairly evenly and I confess to really not know.

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/5636240

Hand Information
 No Limit Omaha, 10 BB (6 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat:  1 confusedturk1 ($1183)
Seat:  3 amaromontenegro ($1263.5)
Seat:  5 mariameshak ($1365.5)
Seat:  6 lil dave ($1288.5) Dealer
Seat:  8 tigerbeer7 ($1097) Small Blind
Seat:  10 ugivemewlngs ($1248) Big Blind
Dealt to lil dave
    

Preflop  (Pot:15)
confusedturk1    FOLD   
amaromontenegro    FOLD   
mariameshak    FOLD   
lil dave    RAISE    $25
tigerbeer7    CALL    $20
ugivemewlngs    CALL    $15

Flop(Pot: $75)
   

tigerbeer7    CHECK   
ugivemewlngs    CHECK   
lil dave    BET    $50
tigerbeer7    CALL    $50
ugivemewlngs    CALL    $50

Turn(Pot: $225)
    

tigerbeer7    CHECK   
ugivemewlngs    CHECK   
lil dave    CHECK   

River(Pot: $225)
     

tigerbeer7    CHECK   
ugivemewlngs    CHECK   
lil dave    BET    $200
tigerbeer7    FOLD   
ugivemewlngs    RAISE    $625
lil dave    CALL    $425
Showdown:
lil dave   SHOWS
    
ugivemewlngs   SHOWS
    
lil dave  wins the pot: $1,475


What you think?

[Rexas]

This is a pretty interesting one for sure. How would you expect him to play KQ ott? Never lead? I've started leading at these turns a fair bit because I am finding they get checked back a lot, but also called a reasonable amount of the time.

As for river, I feel as you probably did that he would lead KQ, and most of the time not make this sort of play. I did however watch a Phil Galfond video where he was advocating checking nutted hands on rivers for deception, since its often pretty hard to get paid by worse when the nuts is fairly obvious and not some weird backdoored straight, but I think that sort of thinking would take a pretty advanced player and some history between the two of you...

Do we have any reads on the guy? Seems from his actual hand that he's pretty loose and a tad maniacal at times. At the stakes I'm learning at (Micros, obvs) I find that this is basically never a bluff but can occasionally be a value bet with worse (say a turned set or something) because people seem to value own themselves a reasonable amount there. Definitely a really weird spot and a weird check raise tho.

[SuuPRlim]

I would think he would lead KQ OTT a decent amount of the time, It think if he checked the turn with KQ, then he could credibly check the river with it as well, I saw that Galfond video as well, it's good for balance/deception, it stops you getting blown off your weaker hands as well, like if you were HU on the river here and NEVER had KQ when you checked you are gonna be put into tough spots with A2 and hands like that, and also with that out of your range your opponent can VB a lil lighter a bit easier because the risk of getting c/r by the nuts is vastly reduced...

However, I think that was more relevant for Heads-up situations, I don't think that it applies as much here because it's three-way and the way it's played, I don't think I am going to bet the river often enough here to make c/r KQ a viable option (he's just not going to have the oppurtuntiy to raise often enough) the SB (TigerBeer7) his range is really A*** heavy, just calling out of the SB and calling the flop, he has a LOT of AT etc in his range (maybe AJ even?) so it's not a very good spot for me to bluff given my range can't have KQ in it, and the SB range is just packed full of bluff catchers - if I had a hand like JTQ* or something and I was going to bluff with it, i'd bet on the turn. I can however bet for value, but I prolly can't VB AT, obv can VB 222, AAA, JJJ (TTT if i somehow have it) and ofc the wheel which is a still a reasonably viable flop draw. So for these reasons, and the main one being that my range has NO KQ in it so i am completely at the top of my range, and the fact he could have the NFD which might decide to bluff with the K blocker meant I never even considered folding, and was actually fairly happy to call.

I wasnt at all surprised to win the hand, I was very surprised to see his hands - if he had just called the river bet, or had turned over KT87 with K high FD etc i would have prolly forgotten about the hand by now, but was kinda puzzled by the raise, and i've asked a few people if he was bluffing, or raising for value and it's split them down the middle...

So, what you think?? Bluff or Value Raise?