Staking mark up question

[cambridgealex]

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

[ActionDanS]

Re: Yugiohpro

I generally root for Jae, only because his vids taught be a fair chunk when I was needing to learn all that stuff. That said, have to agree with comments above.

The guy has a PGC and openly states he’s backed by a HS HU pro. There is a reason why his backer doesn’t want to do so for these mtt’s I would imagine.

Additionally, a friend of mine had a coaching session with Yugioh a year ago. As part of the session they chatted game selection and he had created a Sharkscope group which showed a collection of very top regs and ran some filters on different games. In the session Yugioh showed that the $215 turbos had something like 1% ROI amongst a large sample. 1 week later he sold these games at 1.12 (or similar).

Essentially, these guys are just trying to take advantage quite often.

He’s not even close to the worst offender though. I can’t fully recall who it was, but last week somebody sold the TCOOP High Roller at 1.10 or something and it snap sold out.

[Oxford_HRV]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

His packages were highlighted recently in MTTc as being close to scamming, and I agree, I posted in his thread ~9 months ago asking him to justify his markup and he couldnt.

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

I would like to highlight that nearly everyone marks up the rake and I think that's near scamming.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=43545184&postcount=20

Is 1.21 really fair when 1832$ of the 2884.46$ are turbos or hypers? 63% of your schedule are turbos/hypers and your overall roi in these events is tiny despite two supersonic finals. I checked one of your previous packages and was extremely surprised by the markup to turbo ratio. With the new developments in the marketplace I thought this was worth posting.

Click to see full-size image.

I just checked reg speed results. The markup here seems unbelievably high. Are the games really that soft atm?

Seemed fair at the time and his response is equally laughable imo.


There are just so many bad packages. Like look at this one, you'd think it'd definitely be respectable given he is a coach from deucescracked etcetc.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/163/staking-selling-shares-online/yugiohpro-sunday-package-1509420/

$530 Sunday 500         (roi for top regs probably less than 40%. around 0-25% (max) for this guy who thinks it is tough with 450 registered etc. Btw I'm not saying it isn't tough, it absolutely is) 12.5%
$530 888 The Whale     (Great comp, lots of sat entries but lots of hs regs too, roi probably 15-50% I'll say 35%)
$425 APPT Seoul Qualifier (paid out as cash)*      (Sats have lower roi, and variance when compared to standard tournaments due to the nature of the payouts, I have legitimately no idea how soft this field is, it got ten runners I have three marked as regs and recognise 6/10 , and yugiohPro won ldo but lets say he has a 10-40% roi in this which seems reasonable) 25%
$215 Sunday Supersonic (hyperturbo 215 lots and lots of runners estimated roi -5 - 10%.) 3%

*If I skip this, I might play the Party 500 instead.

Total: $1700 x 1.117= $1900

So at best its marginally profitable for the investor and massively for him and at worst its just absolutely brutal. The 2+2 MP is just a sham.

That reply to your questioning of his mark up is disgusting, and i'm not here to defend him. or anyone who sells at a unjustified mark up.

I personally wouldn't even consider backing anything in a business sense, poker is poker. If someone who I consider can play winner or small loser, and wants to mark up over TCOOP and festivals and such thats fine imo, i understand there is a higher amount of recs in these fields and i understand there are bigger prizepools and i'm buying for a sweat, i dont do it for a business sense and if i did i definitely wouldnt be backing stars MTT players.

[Oxford_HRV]

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

go grind the shit out of 10k of turbo mtts have a small win/loss/breakeven then let me back you to play a day of tcoop at a markup. you'll only be a very slight winner unless you run golden of course. its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards? You just sold for your first highroller at a markup, is that completely backwards?

[cambridgealex]

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

go grind the shit out of 10k of turbo mtts have a small win/loss/breakeven then let me back you to play a day of tcoop at a markup. you'll only be a very slight winner unless you run golden of course. its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards? You just sold for your first highroller at a markup, is that completely backwards?

No because it's very similar to other things I've played.

There was a guy on here who always used to make the argument that if you haven't played that specific tournament ever before then you couldn't possibly justify a markup. For example, Bill has played many GUKPTs before and has won two, and made 9 finals, as well as being a big winner in other tours and online, but he's never actually played a GUKPT in Coventry, so therefore he cannot charge a markup.

"its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards".

I don't really understand what point you're making. If you want to stake to have a sweat in someone you know has the ability to win big tournaments then yes that's fine. There's all sorts of reasons to back people, not just financial. Darvin Moon came 2nd in the WSOP main event, he has the ability to go deep - so do most players. Doesn't make it a +EV investment. Might be a fun sweat though.

You want to back for a sweat, for a gamble - that's great, fair enough.

Many people want to back for financial reasons though, as investments - so they look for packages that are +EV.

[Magic817]

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

go grind the shit out of 10k of turbo mtts have a small win/loss/breakeven then let me back you to play a day of tcoop at a markup. you'll only be a very slight winner unless you run golden of course. its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards? You just sold for your first highroller at a markup, is that completely backwards?

No because it's very similar to other things I've played.

There was a guy on here who always used to make the argument that if you haven't played that specific tournament ever before then you couldn't possibly justify a markup. For example, Bill has played many GUKPTs before and has won two, and made 9 finals, as well as being a big winner in other tours and online, but he's never actually played a GUKPT in Coventry, so therefore he cannot charge a markup.

"its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards".

I don't really understand what point you're making. If you want to stake to have a sweat in someone you know has the ability to win big tournaments then yes that's fine. There's all sorts of reasons to back people, not just financial. Darvin Moon came 2nd in the WSOP main event, he has the ability to go deep - so do most players. Doesn't make it a +EV investment. Might be a fun sweat though.

You want to back for a sweat, for a gamble - that's great, fair enough.

Many people want to back for financial reasons though, as investments - so they look for packages that are +EV.

If the packages were put up and it said I have had numerous deep runs and its a punt with potential for a big win that's fine. The packages aren't on that basis, the people selling try and make out they are good value. It generally happens by using appropriate statistics to back up mark ups, normally by including certain tournaments to show what mark up you can sell at then exclude these from the package being sold for! Eg here is a package of the tough $215+ and lots of turbos but I don't sell Warm Up and Sunday Million because I like to keep them for myself!

[ActionDanS]

Cambridge vs Oxford? Such a cliche! (Sorry, couldn't resist).

On a serious note. Alex is correct in general. I think Mark Up in mtt's just needs to be justifiable and people need to be transparent. That's the main gripe with twoplustwo and in general.

When you're selling for an EPT High Roller its pretty hard to pull the wool over peoples eyes. Anybody who can afford a % knows enough about poker to know what the parameters are, and I imagine most people know him to some degree as well.

In other news, did anybody see Timex sell for the $250,000 SHR in Oz at 1.05. He then scooped 2nd. Must be nice.

[Oxford_HRV]

Cambridge vs Oxford? Such a cliche! (Sorry, couldn't resist).

On a serious note. Alex is correct in general. I think Mark Up in mtt's just needs to be justifiable and people need to be transparent. That's the main gripe with twoplustwo and in general.

When you're selling for an EPT High Roller its pretty hard to pull the wool over peoples eyes. Anybody who can afford a % knows enough about poker to know what the parameters are, and I imagine most people know him to some degree as well.

In other news, did anybody see Timex sell for the $250,000 SHR in Oz at 1.05. He then scooped 2nd. Must be nice.

There will always be fun players who back unjustifiable mark ups so the market will live on. I understand what is correct in EV terms and do not disagree.

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

go grind the shit out of 10k of turbo mtts have a small win/loss/breakeven then let me back you to play a day of tcoop at a markup. you'll only be a very slight winner unless you run golden of course. its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards? You just sold for your first highroller at a markup, is that completely backwards?

No because it's very similar to other things I've played.

There was a guy on here who always used to make the argument that if you haven't played that specific tournament ever before then you couldn't possibly justify a markup. For example, Bill has played many GUKPTs before and has won two, and made 9 finals, as well as being a big winner in other tours and online, but he's never actually played a GUKPT in Coventry, so therefore he cannot charge a markup.

"its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards".

I don't really understand what point you're making. If you want to stake to have a sweat in someone you know has the ability to win big tournaments then yes that's fine. There's all sorts of reasons to back people, not just financial. Darvin Moon came 2nd in the WSOP main event, he has the ability to go deep - so do most players. Doesn't make it a +EV investment. Might be a fun sweat though.

You want to back for a sweat, for a gamble - that's great, fair enough.

Many people want to back for financial reasons though, as investments - so they look for packages that are +EV.

I don't really understand what point you're making? You explained in that sentence what i meant. Having a piece of someone who has the ability to win big tourneys. All I'm saying is darvin moon checks back the nuts.

[buffyslayer1]

Grunching here

I would just caution anyone that buys a package to make sure they check out the players stats for themselves. People very often put up misleading graphs (I recall one reg put up a graph which inc a $40k PLO bink on a nlhe package) and put a positive slant on their stats omit certain game types or have random time periods.

Also another mark up scam i see a lot if players who are backed having all the juicy stuff to themselves and then sell for higher buy in stuff with very low roi at MU (and they likely -ev).

Other old tricks include posting OPR stats which hide that 90% of profits came from 3 years ago, having a huge pack with a mix of reg speed, turbos and hypers and do a blanket 1.2 MU but 90% of the games are HS turbos.
Not wanting to call anyone out specifially but I recall a PS pro and old school reg having a $40k package on a sunday at 1.2 and 80% of the games where HS turbos and hypers for example. He was rightly called out on it by someone and his sharkscope promptly blocked and he has not run packs since i think.

I occasionally sell packs on 2+2 myself and try to be as transparent as possible do mark up by tournament and post full graphs and then relevant graphs to the games I am selling for.

I very rarely buy as I truly believe there are not that many +ev packs out there (on 2+2 no idea about here). Pads is a good example of someone who is beating the games very obviously is not backed puts up fair MU and is clear about the games he plays and someone I have bought off and would snap buy again if I see it come up

[pvas2]

I enjoy reading these sorts of debates. It is often brought up that people selling are on "downswings" but not much is said about that. A lot of people who have been playing for a long time and have good overall lifetime graphs will use the downswing to study their games and to improve. So you can be buying in people who not only have good lifetime results including the recent downswing to sway MU down slightly (hopefully) but they may also be studying and be a better buy now than while they were at the peak of their graph.

I  sold for a few months on 2p2 for my weekly schedule and would presume I didn't make a profit while selling there but I think the above paragraph applied to me and my situation but might not for others. I would do a double take and some research on those selling for every day they play and would never invest in someone who won't sell the high value tournaments like the million and warm up with the rest of their schedule.