Staking mark up question

[Steve Swift]

I am sure i have this right but can you please cast your eye over it and check that i am not missing something?

A  player puts a package up for sale at  a MU of 1.162, he takes 50% of the action himself.
His abi is $66  his roi is 82% over a big sample with 700K profit.

Total package cost $3528 with MU comes to $4100 a difference of $572

His 50% costs him $3528/2= $1764, if we then take off the MU of $572, this package is costing him $1192

Firtly, have i got that right
Secondly, on those stats does it seem a good buy
Thirdly, i assume MU generally is because he thinks he is better than most others in the field and can therefore charge a premium on his services

I am sure i have this right but would value opinions.

Regards

Steve

[Magic817]

I am sure i have this right but can you please cast your eye over it and check that i am not missing something?

A  player puts a package up for sale at  a MU of 1.162, he takes 50% of the action himself.
His abi is $66  his roi is 82% over a big sample with 700K profit.

Total package cost $3528 with MU comes to $4100 a difference of $572

His 50% costs him $3528/2= $1764, if we then take off the MU of $572, this package is costing him $1192

Firtly, have i got that right
Secondly, on those stats does it seem a good buy
Thirdly, i assume MU generally is because he thinks he is better than most others in the field and can therefore charge a premium on his services

I am sure i have this right but would value opinions.

Regards

Steve

He is getting $2050 for the 50% he sells. Buy ins are $3528 so he is putting up $1478.

The key is to check we are comparing like with like. Lots of players show a great ROI for say all games then sell for a load or hard games/hypers/turbos etc where their expected ROI will be lower than the ROI they have got in other games. You also need to factor in trustworthiness etc. Whilst the package the Nigerian prince might seem great, if we have little chance of seeing the money we need to factor this in!

Third point, yes.

[ActionDanS]

Some words of caution from an former twoplustwo MP staking reg. The majority if this is concerning your 2nd question.

I've learnt the hard way.

This might turn into a ramble but hope you don't mind.

this is in no particular order or structure, but its useful imo.

* use bankroll management, an mtt pro has losing days considerably more than winning days (Pads exluded) so you migt need to suffer a lot of losses. I used to send $50-80 regularly to players for small pieces of high variance schedules when all the while I grinded $5-22 mtt's on stars. If I had my time again, I'd much rather just use the $ to play the big 55 on my own.

* Often on 2p2 people are selling because they're on a downswing. A lot of the packages and regulars are -EV. I can link some threads discussing this exact topic if you like.

* When the COOPs come around, a lot of the very best regs will sell % because it's so much money. These can produce some very nice packages.

* a good tip for checking a players stats is to filter for games with small fields (which you can do on Sharkscope) and you can see how they are doing. The reasons why I like this filter is because they're generally very "reggy" mtt's, so you can see how they fair against other top players. Also, smaller fields mean that the data is less likely to be skewed by a huge score (such as a COOP victory) and generally the stats will converge better.

All that said, I've had some nice MP "scores" on occasion and have seen some people buy %'s of Sunday Milly FT's as well as Super Tuesday, so its not all bad. But definitely don't seee it as an easy way to get rich.

I think the key is to be selective. Pads sold last Sunday, which im gutted I missed.

[Steve Swift]

I am sure i have this right but can you please cast your eye over it and check that i am not missing something?

A  player puts a package up for sale at  a MU of 1.162, he takes 50% of the action himself.
His abi is $66  his roi is 82% over a big sample with 700K profit.

Total package cost $3528 with MU comes to $4100 a difference of $572

His 50% costs him $3528/2= $1764, if we then take off the MU of $572, this package is costing him $1192

Firtly, have i got that right
Secondly, on those stats does it seem a good buy
Thirdly, i assume MU generally is because he thinks he is better than most others in the field and can therefore charge a premium on his services

I am sure i have this right but would value opinions.

Regards

Steve

He is getting $2050 for the 50% he sells. Buy ins are $3528 so he is putting up $1478.

The key is to check we are comparing like with like. Lots of players show a great ROI for say all games then sell for a load or hard games/hypers/turbos etc where their expected ROI will be lower than the ROI they have got in other games. You also need to factor in trustworthiness etc. Whilst the package the Nigerian prince might seem great, if we have little chance of seeing the money we need to factor this in!

Third point, yes.

Thanks for the maths, that makes sense.

[Steve Swift]

Some words of caution from an former twoplustwo MP staking reg. The majority if this is concerning your 2nd question.

I've learnt the hard way.

This might turn into a ramble but hope you don't mind.

this is in no particular order or structure, but its useful imo.

* use bankroll management, an mtt pro has losing days considerably more than winning days (Pads exluded) so you migt need to suffer a lot of losses. I used to send $50-80 regularly to players for small pieces of high variance schedules when all the while I grinded $5-22 mtt's on stars. If I had my time again, I'd much rather just use the $ to play the big 55 on my own.

* Often on 2p2 people are selling because they're on a downswing. A lot of the packages and regulars are -EV. I can link some threads discussing this exact topic if you like.

* When the COOPs come around, a lot of the very best regs will sell % because it's so much money. These can produce some very nice packages.

* a good tip for checking a players stats is to filter for games with small fields (which you can do on Sharkscope) and you can see how they are doing. The reasons why I like this filter is because they're generally very "reggy" mtt's, so you can see how they fair against other top players. Also, smaller fields mean that the data is less likely to be skewed by a huge score (such as a COOP victory) and generally the stats will converge better.

All that said, I've had some nice MP "scores" on occasion and have seen some people buy %'s of Sunday Milly FT's as well as Super Tuesday, so its not all bad. But definitely don't seee it as an easy way to get rich.

I think the key is to be selective. Pads sold last Sunday, which im gutted I missed.

Thanks for the detailed reply, I did see the Pads one but a bit rich for me.

[SuuPRlim]

Some words of caution from an former twoplustwo MP staking reg. The majority if this is concerning your 2nd question.

I've learnt the hard way.

This might turn into a ramble but hope you don't mind.

this is in no particular order or structure, but its useful imo.

* use bankroll management, an mtt pro has losing days considerably more than winning days (Pads exluded) so you migt need to suffer a lot of losses. I used to send $50-80 regularly to players for small pieces of high variance schedules when all the while I grinded $5-22 mtt's on stars. If I had my time again, I'd much rather just use the $ to play the big 55 on my own.

* Often on 2p2 people are selling because they're on a downswing. A lot of the packages and regulars are -EV. I can link some threads discussing this exact topic if you like.

* When the COOPs come around, a lot of the very best regs will sell % because it's so much money. These can produce some very nice packages.

* a good tip for checking a players stats is to filter for games with small fields (which you can do on Sharkscope) and you can see how they are doing. The reasons why I like this filter is because they're generally very "reggy" mtt's, so you can see how they fair against other top players. Also, smaller fields mean that the data is less likely to be skewed by a huge score (such as a COOP victory) and generally the stats will converge better.

All that said, I've had some nice MP "scores" on occasion and have seen some people buy %'s of Sunday Milly FT's as well as Super Tuesday, so its not all bad. But definitely don't seee it as an easy way to get rich.

I think the key is to be selective. Pads sold last Sunday, which im gutted I missed.

Gd post this.

[rfgqqabc]

The problem with the 2+2 marketplace is that anyone good is just going to pm some of their friends and swap/sell the action instead. So many regs selling everyday in the MP and you just wonder if its such a good deal how come their mates aren't taking the action instead. This doesn't quite hold true for live action but it still applies somewhat (just because of the sheer size in the buyins)

[Simon Galloway]

Backing players in mid-high stakes mtts without makeup (and paying a premium to do it) must be nigh on impossible to show a profit, unless of course you get mega lucky quickly over a small sample.*  If once in a while you want to take a punt on someone turning $100 into $10k for you, then absolutely have a spin.  If you are regularly taking a $100 slice of someone though, much much much better to fully stake a player (with makeup, but without a premium) in micro/low stuff that has a proven track record.

* And yes, this agrees with other posts ^^ where for the most part, all the juicy stuff was sold/swapped out and you get to buy a bag of variance with some select mtts where even mates don't want any.

[Steve Swift]

Thanks for all that guys, I just like to stake a little bit and get a good rail out of I even more so when i can't get to play myself, need that fix don't you know. Obviously to make a few bob too.

I do wish more was sold on Blonde kinda Mondooooooooish   or guys just popping in for a little hit and run, I would generally support when ever possible.

Incidentally the guy in the example above that i grabbed at random won $15k+

MBN

[Oxford_HRV]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

[Steve Swift]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

No a different one, was goner say bad form for me to mention a players name but as he won some $$ I am sure he would be ok.  it was a guy SN of random

[rfgqqabc]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

His packages were highlighted recently in MTTc as being close to scamming, and I agree, I posted in his thread ~9 months ago asking him to justify his markup and he couldnt.

[Oxford_HRV]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

His packages were highlighted recently in MTTc as being close to scamming, and I agree, I posted in his thread ~9 months ago asking him to justify his markup and he couldnt.

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

I would like to highlight that nearly everyone marks up the rake and I think that's near scamming.

[rfgqqabc]

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

His packages were highlighted recently in MTTc as being close to scamming, and I agree, I posted in his thread ~9 months ago asking him to justify his markup and he couldnt.

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

I would like to highlight that nearly everyone marks up the rake and I think that's near scamming.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=43545184&postcount=20

Is 1.21 really fair when 1832$ of the 2884.46$ are turbos or hypers? 63% of your schedule are turbos/hypers and your overall roi in these events is tiny despite two supersonic finals. I checked one of your previous packages and was extremely surprised by the markup to turbo ratio. With the new developments in the marketplace I thought this was worth posting.

Click to see full-size image.

I just checked reg speed results. The markup here seems unbelievably high. Are the games really that soft atm?

Seemed fair at the time and his response is equally laughable imo.


There are just so many bad packages. Like look at this one, you'd think it'd definitely be respectable given he is a coach from deucescracked etcetc.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/163/staking-selling-shares-online/yugiohpro-sunday-package-1509420/

$530 Sunday 500         (roi for top regs probably less than 40%. around 0-25% (max) for this guy who thinks it is tough with 450 registered etc. Btw I'm not saying it isn't tough, it absolutely is) 12.5%
$530 888 The Whale     (Great comp, lots of sat entries but lots of hs regs too, roi probably 15-50% I'll say 35%)
$425 APPT Seoul Qualifier (paid out as cash)*      (Sats have lower roi, and variance when compared to standard tournaments due to the nature of the payouts, I have legitimately no idea how soft this field is, it got ten runners I have three marked as regs and recognise 6/10 , and yugiohPro won ldo but lets say he has a 10-40% roi in this which seems reasonable) 25%
$215 Sunday Supersonic (hyperturbo 215 lots and lots of runners estimated roi -5 - 10%.) 3%

*If I skip this, I might play the Party 500 instead.

Total: $1700 x 1.117= $1900

So at best its marginally profitable for the investor and massively for him and at worst its just absolutely brutal. The 2+2 MP is just a sham.

[GreekStein]

In fairness we get a lot of terrible staking threads on here too.

If you want an answer on a staking question, just pm Simon Galloway. Man talks the most sense in this stuff and knows his shit.