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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
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Topic: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question (Read 1929 times)
MAF
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Posts: 120
Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
on:
December 17, 2007, 03:35:44 PM »
In Saturday's APAT event, the following hand came up. I'd like some advice as to the best course of action here. This is really more of a pot odds question.
Stack sizes are as follows:
Me: ~9000
CO: 1100
BB: 4300
With blinds at 200/400, it's folded round to me in middle position. I have
. I raise to 1200, but the short-stack to my immediate left goes all-in for his final 1100.
The big blind thinks about it for a while, then pushes. I have to call 2700 into a pot of 6800.
BB has been playing very tight. Last time he did this, he showed QQ. I'm almost certainly behind, but I'm getting pot odds of 2.5:1 to call.
Should I make the call or not?
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Graham C
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Moo
Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #1 on:
December 17, 2007, 03:39:47 PM »
Just the 3 of you left in the comp?
I'd assume the BB has something better than A8 to push and pass here and let them fight it out.
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LuckyLloyd
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #2 on:
December 17, 2007, 03:40:34 PM »
INSTANT CALL. You cannot possibly pass here.
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Paullie_D
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #3 on:
December 17, 2007, 03:42:11 PM »
Forgive me if I muff this up but what are you hoping to hit with a call as the 'pot odds' aren't, it seems to me, to be as good as you think?
With only 3xBB left it seems likely that the shorty will push with any PP or, more likely, Ax..leaving you very thin.
As for the BB...given his (assumed or stated) range..either a big PP or AQ/AK...your draw gets even thinner.
Fold for me.
Of course, raising MP with A8o with a 3xBB shortiy behind you...ouch! Just my 2 cents !
[EDIT]I'm assuming this isn't the final 3...but rather the mid-point of the tourney.
«
Last Edit: December 17, 2007, 03:45:19 PM by Paullie_D
»
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Dewi_cool
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #4 on:
December 17, 2007, 03:55:28 PM »
Easy call
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MAF
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #5 on:
December 17, 2007, 03:58:56 PM »
Just to clarify, we were on a full table of 9. This was still relatively early stages. I just highlighted the key stack sizes.
I should have also explained that I rarely do the maths side of poker, mainly because I don't always know how to apply it (as is the case here). I've often heard that you should usually call when getting 2:1 or more on a hand, although I accept that is probably a very generalistic statement.
Sorry, if the question does seem dumb to most. I'm just trying to learn this side of the game.
Many thanks.
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #6 on:
December 17, 2007, 04:13:05 PM »
Quote from: MAF on December 17, 2007, 03:58:56 PM
Just to clarify, we were on a full table of 9. This was still relatively early stages. I just highlighted the key stack sizes.
I should have also explained that I rarely do the maths side of poker, mainly because I don't always know how to apply it (as is the case here). I've often heard that you should usually call when getting 2:1 or more on a hand, although I accept that is probably a very generalistic statement.
Sorry, if the question does seem dumb to most. I'm just trying to learn this side of the game.
Many thanks.
A call is fine here...as is a fold..pretty evenly split for me.
«
Last Edit: December 17, 2007, 04:18:01 PM by boldie
»
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #7 on:
December 17, 2007, 04:47:40 PM »
The only think I woud say is if I was playing this hand I would have shoved, you can be sure the shortie is going to come in with any 2 so I'd be looking to isolate and play the shortstack heads up, by making it 1200 your given the BB an opportunity to call and hit with any 2 the fact that he has pushed also looks to me like he is trying to isolate you by playing on his tight image and getting youy out the pot so he is heads up with the shorty.
As played though I think its an instant call and hope flop comes 88x
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scotty2hatty
Gamesmaster
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #8 on:
December 17, 2007, 04:56:38 PM »
Fold pre-flop. And as played I fold.
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Longy
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #9 on:
December 17, 2007, 05:12:48 PM »
I must admit i thought this was a call but it looks like im wrong.
Ranges are of course debatable, but i think this is about on the money given he is tight, hell im not sure the bottom of bb's range is even right.
34,460,755,560 games 86.219 secs 399,688,648 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.084% 18.25% 01.84% 6288565396 632505078.50 { Ac8d }
Hand 1: 30.560% 28.87% 01.69% 9948532284 582541875.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 49.356% 47.87% 01.49% 16496249351 512361575.00 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
As for estimating pot odds in these situations, it really is experience, I would recommend mucking around with pokerstove. Which is where these calculations are from. As you can see i got this wrong at first glance so clearly i need to work on it as well.
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LuckyLloyd
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #10 on:
December 17, 2007, 05:29:02 PM »
Quote from: Longy on December 17, 2007, 05:12:48 PM
I must admit i thought this was a call but it looks like im wrong.
Ranges are of course debatable, but i think this is about on the money given he is tight, hell im not sure the bottom of bb's range is even right.
34,460,755,560 games 86.219 secs 399,688,648 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.084% 18.25% 01.84% 6288565396 632505078.50 { Ac8d }
Hand 1: 30.560% 28.87% 01.69% 9948532284 582541875.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 49.356% 47.87% 01.49% 16496249351 512361575.00 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
As for estimating pot odds in these situations, it really is experience, I would recommend mucking around with pokerstove. Which is where these calculations are from. As you can see i got this wrong at first glance so clearly i need to work on it as well.
Mmmmpprph. I would put some suited connectors in the shorties range. But yeah, those are definately in the ballpark. I was wrong obv. Looks like a fold with those maths. Interesting.
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #11 on:
December 17, 2007, 05:34:10 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on December 17, 2007, 05:29:02 PM
Quote from: Longy on December 17, 2007, 05:12:48 PM
I must admit i thought this was a call but it looks like im wrong.
Ranges are of course debatable, but i think this is about on the money given he is tight, hell im not sure the bottom of bb's range is even right.
34,460,755,560 games 86.219 secs 399,688,648 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.084% 18.25% 01.84% 6288565396 632505078.50 { Ac8d }
Hand 1: 30.560% 28.87% 01.69% 9948532284 582541875.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 49.356% 47.87% 01.49% 16496249351 512361575.00 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
As for estimating pot odds in these situations, it really is experience, I would recommend mucking around with pokerstove. Which is where these calculations are from. As you can see i got this wrong at first glance so clearly i need to work on it as well.
Mmmmpprph. I would put some suited connectors in the shorties range. But yeah, those are definately in the ballpark. I was wrong obv. Looks like a fold with those maths. Interesting.
The thing about using pokerstove is it can't be used in a live event, so in the situation we're all calling but in hindsight we think we have it wrong?
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Royal Flush
Hero Member
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #12 on:
December 17, 2007, 05:36:07 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on December 17, 2007, 05:29:02 PM
Quote from: Longy on December 17, 2007, 05:12:48 PM
I must admit i thought this was a call but it looks like im wrong.
Ranges are of course debatable, but i think this is about on the money given he is tight, hell im not sure the bottom of bb's range is even right.
34,460,755,560 games 86.219 secs 399,688,648 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.084% 18.25% 01.84% 6288565396 632505078.50 { Ac8d }
Hand 1: 30.560% 28.87% 01.69% 9948532284 582541875.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 49.356% 47.87% 01.49% 16496249351 512361575.00 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
As for estimating pot odds in these situations, it really is experience, I would recommend mucking around with pokerstove. Which is where these calculations are from. As you can see i got this wrong at first glance so clearly i need to work on it as well.
Mmmmpprph. I would put some suited connectors in the shorties range. But yeah, those are definately in the ballpark. I was wrong obv. Looks like a fold with those maths. Interesting.
metagameaments
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Ironside
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Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #13 on:
December 17, 2007, 05:37:51 PM »
the thing you need to think about is the side pot and what sort of shape your in against and the pot odds your getting for that
after that you can add in the value of the main pot
this to me would be a simple fold as your getting even money for the side pot in which you are likely a <2-1 dog
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MAF
Full Member
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Posts: 120
Re: Hand from Sat APAT event - pot odds question
«
Reply #14 on:
December 18, 2007, 11:14:39 AM »
Thanks for all the replies. There was certainly a mixed bag of opinions there.
In the end I made a "reluctant" call working on the ">2:1 odds" reasoning I mentioned earlier. CO showed
, BB showed
.
However, I spiked my 8 on the turn and knocked both players out. BB was not happy.
Quote from: Ironside
the thing you need to think about is the side pot and what sort of shape your in against and the pot odds your getting for that
This is the sort of things that I need to learn. So you're saying I should only be calculating the pot odds on the side pot then?
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