Overpair fold?

[MANTIS01]

i saw his 2,5k as a powerful bet becuase if I merely called it I would have likely faced an even tougher river decision, and I didn't see how I could form a plan for the rest of the hand...apart from deciding he didn't have the six now and thus calling a river shove. However most of the deck is a scare card for the river, so my choice on the turn was all in or fold I beleived.

Well exactly that Tighty. Any reasonable player will think the same. So if you bet 2.5k into any reasonable player it will get that player thinking seriously about stack commitment. So villain gets a 7.5k bet for the price of a 2.5k bet, and thats pretty good value. Making this type of bet at this particular time is going to get a lot of reasonable players to fold their hand. Why would the nuts want that?

[TightEnd]

and this, I think, is at the heart of why I posted this hand. Not that I was capable of articulating it like that or going to that level whist sitting there pondering at the table.

Whilst I did fold, I was niggling myself about it.

[doubleup]

Well exactly that Tighty. Any reasonable player will think the same. So if you bet 2.5k into any reasonable player it will get that player thinking seriously about stack commitment. So villain gets a 7.5k bet for the price of a 2.5k bet, and thats pretty good value. Making this type of bet at this particular time is going to get a lot of reasonable players to fold their hand. Why would the nuts want that?

The nuts might not want that but a number of hands that are beating QQ might want to bet out here.

[GreekStein]

Well exactly that Tighty. Any reasonable player will think the same. So if you bet 2.5k into any reasonable player it will get that player thinking seriously about stack commitment. So villain gets a 7.5k bet for the price of a 2.5k bet, and thats pretty good value. Making this type of bet at this particular time is going to get a lot of reasonable players to fold their hand. Why would the nuts want that?

Stack commitment? LOL live poker players probably never even heard of that phrase

[MANTIS01]

Well exactly that Tighty. Any reasonable player will think the same. So if you bet 2.5k into any reasonable player it will get that player thinking seriously about stack commitment. So villain gets a 7.5k bet for the price of a 2.5k bet, and thats pretty good value. Making this type of bet at this particular time is going to get a lot of reasonable players to fold their hand. Why would the nuts want that?

The nuts might not want that but a number of hands that are beating QQ might want to bet out here.

That is true. He could deffo do this with 2 pair, say 7-8 or even 9-10. But I don't think a flopped set c-calls only to bet out strong on the turn and I don't think he bets strong with a straight either. So although the board is scary you can still eliminate a lot of the strong hands. If you say he doesn't have 10-J, a 6, or a set, it makes the all-in move a serious consideration, more appealing than folding imo anyway. Although you could always be behind there is a very good chance you are ahead, a good enough chance for me to push anyway.

[hatthehole]

jam over his lead.

edit:  If he had checked the turn to me i would shut down check back, have decision on river.   But since he lead the turn into us I would shove because although u could be jamming into the nuts I dont like folding coz u cant win when u fold (whats the point in making marginal folds in a quick mtt, or almost any mtt?).  Its too easy for him to bet like this with some draw/ combo draw that hasnt got there yet to try get to the river cheap so I think your good a decent % of time so best get value out of his draws.  If he does have the nizzles stand up and go think of make up a story to tell your mates how u got coolered/ took a "sick" beat and move onto the next tourney. (obv call the other guy a moron for having a better hand than you b4 you leave).

[MANTIS01]

Yeah, I agree with that. I would be thinking a pair/draw combo is the most likely holding and would push on that basis. In the bit of time you get I would take a stab at him folding to a push 50% of the time, calling 25% when behind, and calling 25% when ahead. Obv that sort of gamble is +ev. A few people have said wait for a better spot, but I think that is a leak in tournament play. When you have a comfortable stack you will always have a ready made excuse to find a better spot. If your target is winning all the chips how can you be satisfied with the chips you have? This could be that better spot.

Table image is important. I suspect Tighty's was ahem pretty tight, and this adds more credibility to the suspicion behind the bet. Also folding gives you that niggly regret that Tighty mentioned. I remember someone saying you should make poker decisions like you're looking back on them tomorrow and have no regrets. I like that.