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Poker Hand Analysis
Overpair fold?
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Topic: Overpair fold? (Read 2527 times)
TightEnd
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Overpair fold?
«
on:
November 20, 2008, 04:41:42 PM »
Live MTT
100-200 blinds, a long way from the money
Hero 9,500 slightly above average stack
Villain in BB 8,000
Hero makes it 700 in MP with
folded to BB who flats. He is not often seen getting out of line, in Hero's limited experience of him.
Flop
Check, Hero bets 1200
Called
On the
turn the Villain leads for 2,500
On Hero, is this a standard fold?
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byronkincaid
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #1 on:
November 20, 2008, 04:48:32 PM »
has he read that book that tells you to donk the turn with a flush draw?
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TightEnd
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #2 on:
November 20, 2008, 04:52:41 PM »
Quote from: byronkincaid on November 20, 2008, 04:48:32 PM
has he read that book that tells you to donk the turn with a flush draw?
No idea, but if he's put me on a standard c/bet on the flop with AK say, he can represent a hand on the turn. Didn't seem the type to call the flop with x6 looking for a gutshot, unless it was
, where I say most would c/r or bet/3 bet.
I pondered and was torn between pushing and passing.
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AlexMartin
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #3 on:
November 20, 2008, 05:46:50 PM »
weird spot. i dunno. folding is probably fine though.
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GreekStein
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #4 on:
November 20, 2008, 06:08:30 PM »
I probs fold here.
Its hard for you to call this much of your stack, especially with no plan for the river even though it is a good spot for an opponent to bluff with a 10j or flushdraw type hand. No good card can possibly hit
Its a live MTT - wait for a better spot, plenty of live donks waiting to double you up.
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #5 on:
November 20, 2008, 06:34:47 PM »
Looks like a fold, would be pretty horrid spot against someone tricky.
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Thekellster89
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #6 on:
November 20, 2008, 06:46:30 PM »
seems like a pretty standard fold to me.
for a number of reasons.
.... plus you can find a lot of better spots in a local donkament
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MC
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #7 on:
November 20, 2008, 10:21:12 PM »
Tricky hand!
Based on what you know of the player, I guess you have to pass.
Weird play for a 6, but 2 pair possibilities are there. Possible you're passing the best hand but fold seems about right...
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david3103
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #8 on:
November 21, 2008, 12:01:13 PM »
Are we calling that raise from the BB with 66?
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TightEnd
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #9 on:
November 21, 2008, 12:04:54 PM »
Quote from: david3103 on November 21, 2008, 12:01:13 PM
Are we calling that raise from the BB with 66?
sure
are we putting 1200 in with a gutshot on the flop? suppose some will.
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AlexMartin
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #10 on:
November 21, 2008, 01:04:52 PM »
Quote from: david3103 on November 21, 2008, 12:01:13 PM
Are we calling that raise from the BB with 66?
obv 3betting.
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UpTheMariners
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #11 on:
November 21, 2008, 01:35:06 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on November 20, 2008, 04:41:42 PM
Live MTT
100-200 blinds, a long way from the money
Hero 9,500 slightly above average stack
Villain in BB 8,000
Hero makes it 700 in MP with
folded to BB who flats.
He is not often seen getting out of line
, in Hero's limited experience of him.
Flop
Check, Hero bets 1200
Called
On the
turn the Villain leads for 2,500
On Hero, is this a standard fold?
i think its a fold theres alot of combinations which include a 6.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #12 on:
November 21, 2008, 03:35:13 PM »
I'm really surprised everyone wants to fold here. If the turn just made the guy's hand with some middle-pin magic why would he fire out 1/3 of Tighty's remaining stack? This is a really serious question he is posing and as Tighty says he was thinking about all-in or fold. So his oppo gets him seeing that 2.5k bet as an all-in bet, well powerful! And if you make that powerful move when the turn brings a significant danger card to anyone not holding 10-J or a 6 (which is almost everyone), then your chances of taking the pot with say
or A-10 are very high. If you play off a tight image this is so effective because people believe you have it. But if you had it why would you be so aggressive with it?
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TightEnd
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #13 on:
November 21, 2008, 04:06:56 PM »
i saw his 2,5k as a powerful bet becuase if I merely called it I would have likely faced an even tougher river decision, and I didn't see how I could form a plan for the rest of the hand...apart from deciding he didn't have the six now and thus calling a river shove. However most of the deck is a scare card for the river, so my choice on the turn was all in or fold I beleived.
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doubleup
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Re: Overpair fold?
«
Reply #14 on:
November 21, 2008, 04:17:30 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on November 21, 2008, 04:06:56 PM
and so my choice on the turn was all in or fold I beleived.
I agree with that. If you are behind the money goes in anyway. If you just call and he is drawing and misses there is very little chance of him bluffing the river as you have committed so much to the pot.
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