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Poker Hand Analysis
Blind on Blind
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Topic: Blind on Blind (Read 1788 times)
Autobetkev
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Blind on Blind
«
on:
April 07, 2009, 01:42:08 PM »
Ok here goes. I've been struggling with my game recently, running bad has led to me playing badly (I'm sure you understand). Playing my local casino, where most players are truly awful. £20 1r1a , 11 (from 40) left, my table is 5 handed. Blinds 1k/2k, average about 27k. Top 5 get paid.
Folded to SB (25k) an awful player who I haven't played in a tourney before (although we have history at cash to the point that the previous week he had made a complaint to management about me). He had been pretty tight, but raised a few pots lately. Villain raises to 8k, I look down at
. I have 17k, is this an instant shove? Having spoken to friends, they say ship or fold. I just called, my reasons for this is as follows. If I ship it im getting called imo. Im not folding as Im pretty sure I have the best hand and we are nowhere near the bubble.
Flop
He shoves, call or fold? I called because I was prepared to play the hand from the start. I thought his range for shoving was any Queen, any 9, any pair above a 9, 10J, AK, AJ, KJ. I think there is a small chance he might check if he misses the flop (explaing my call instead of shoving), allowing me to ship 11k, to which he might fold. Is this play as bad as my friends, very good players (Neil Blatchly and Rupinder Bedi) are trying to tell me?
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How can you soar like an eagle if you surround yourself with turkeys?
Simon Galloway
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Re: Blind on Blind
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Reply #1 on:
April 07, 2009, 01:48:51 PM »
I'm sure someone will post in a sec saying just ship it pre ffs.
I actually don't mind what you have done. You have reasoned that he won't make a mistake pre, so you have taken this line in the hope that you get a chance to make him make a mistake on the flop. This reasoning seems to hold that you have committed to playing the hand, so what decision is there to make? Close you eyes and put the rest in, justify it that it would have played the same as if you had shoved pre.
So altho I don't mind your line, if it is going to tie you in knots on the flop, perhaps it was just easier to ship it pre.
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daviebhoy
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #2 on:
April 07, 2009, 01:57:53 PM »
I can't think of a single reason to flat the raise pre. If you are going to put it all-in on the flop then put it in pre. There is some small chance he may fold if he is as awful as you say.
I think a fold or push is fine here. If table is passive and especially players to your left are passive then folding and stealing when you are first to open is a good option.
If players are active at this stage then just put it all-in pre and cross your fingers.....
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Autobetkev
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #3 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:06:30 PM »
Quote from: Simon Galloway on April 07, 2009, 01:48:51 PM
I'm sure someone will post in a sec saying just ship it pre ffs.
I actually don't mind what you have done. You have reasoned that he won't make a mistake pre, so you have taken this line in the hope that you get a chance to make him make a mistake on the flop. This reasoning seems to hold that you have committed to playing the hand, so what decision is there to make? Close you eyes and put the rest in, justify it that it would have played the same as if you had shoved pre.
So altho I don't mind your line, if it is going to tie you in knots on the flop, perhaps it was just easier to ship it pre.
Just to make it clear, I was never gonna fold on the flop....
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How can you soar like an eagle if you surround yourself with turkeys?
Autobetkev
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #4 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:11:34 PM »
Quote from: daviebhoy on April 07, 2009, 01:57:53 PM
I can't think of a single reason to flat the raise pre. If you are going to put it all-in on the flop then put it in pre. There is some small chance he may fold if he is as awful as you say.
I think a fold or push is fine here. If table is passive and especially players to your left are passive then folding and stealing when you are first to open is a good option.
If players are active at this stage then just put it all-in pre and cross your fingers.....
What is the fundamental difference between calling and shoving pre, if I am sure I will get a call? I think there is more chance that he will check the flop, than fold to the pre flop shove. If Im in his position, I would put my opponent on a huge hand.
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How can you soar like an eagle if you surround yourself with turkeys?
daviebhoy
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #5 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:15:15 PM »
You think you are ahead now but about 33% of the time you won't be on the flop so get it in when you are ahead.
You are essentially calling an all-in with 55 which is rarely a great thing to do pre. Calling his raise commits both of you to the hand on the flop as there is 16k in the middle and you have 9k left. He isn't folding much on the flop.
«
Last Edit: April 07, 2009, 02:19:55 PM by daviebhoy
»
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GreekStein
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #6 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:17:58 PM »
We don't have a stack to do anything here but (pass if he's a live complete ubernit or) shove. We can't stop n go as we are OOP too.
He doesn't have to put you on a massive hand as lots of live players do dumb things here like call and then pass when they don't connect with the flop. If you had a massive hand you'd shove pre as he was committed too call you then but may not be if he whiffs the flop and gives up. You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
Listen to George but ignore anything Neil ever tells you, the massive fish.
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@GreekStein on twitter.
Retired Policeman, Part time troll.
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Professional Hotel Locator.
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Go Ducks!
Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #7 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:29:34 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on April 07, 2009, 02:17:58 PM
We don't have a stack to do anything here but (pass if he's a live complete ubernit or) shove. We can't stop n go as we are OOP too.
He doesn't have to put you on a massive hand as lots of live players do dumb things here like call and then pass when they don't connect with the flop. If you had a massive hand you'd shove pre as he was committed too call you then but may not be if he whiffs the flop and gives up. You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
.
This.
Just shove it ffs (just for Simon)
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Moskvich
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #8 on:
April 07, 2009, 02:48:42 PM »
Quote
You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
I think this is also part of the problem here - you're losing value (even though you don't have a monster). He's never check-folding the flop if he's ahead, only if he's behind. So he only folds when you're a 3 to 1 favourite on the flop. Back of my fag packet reckons you average about 18.4k playing it this way (if you started the hand with 19k). If you reckon your 5's are say 53% pre, then that makes about 20.1k if you just get it in (going with your assumption that he always calls).
I guess there might well be situations nearer the bubble where ICM considerations could actually make this a good line, given your reasoning about this type of player and the extra value of protecting your hand in this spot. But I'm not sure in this case that the perceived slight extra protection for your hand is worth the lost value - especially given that I don't know how you can say you're certain that an 'awful' player will never raise/pass pre, blind on blind, leaving himself 8.5bbs. I'd have thought he was actually quite likely to do that. If he does it even 25% of the time it's got to become a clear shove.
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Blatch
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #9 on:
April 11, 2009, 01:33:21 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on April 07, 2009, 02:17:58 PM
We don't have a stack to do anything here but (pass if he's a live complete ubernit or) shove. We can't stop n go as we are OOP too.
He doesn't have to put you on a massive hand as lots of live players do dumb things here like call and then pass when they don't connect with the flop. If you had a massive hand you'd shove pre as he was committed too call you then but may not be if he whiffs the flop and gives up. You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
Listen to George but ignore anything Neil ever tells you, the massive fish.
As soon as I saw you reply I was waiting for a line along this line
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GreekStein
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Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #10 on:
April 12, 2009, 01:04:00 AM »
Quote from: Blatch on April 11, 2009, 01:33:21 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on April 07, 2009, 02:17:58 PM
We don't have a stack to do anything here but (pass if he's a live complete ubernit or) shove. We can't stop n go as we are OOP too.
He doesn't have to put you on a massive hand as lots of live players do dumb things here like call and then pass when they don't connect with the flop. If you had a massive hand you'd shove pre as he was committed too call you then but may not be if he whiffs the flop and gives up. You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
Listen to George but ignore anything Neil ever tells you, the massive fish.
As soon as I saw you reply I was waiting for a line along this line
You know I was only kidding mate.
I'd never want to offend my
best backgammon customer
mate Neil.
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@GreekStein on twitter.
Retired Policeman, Part time troll.
Blatch
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Posts: 2622
Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #11 on:
April 12, 2009, 03:10:51 AM »
Quote from: GreekStein on April 12, 2009, 01:04:00 AM
Quote from: Blatch on April 11, 2009, 01:33:21 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on April 07, 2009, 02:17:58 PM
We don't have a stack to do anything here but (pass if he's a live complete ubernit or) shove. We can't stop n go as we are OOP too.
He doesn't have to put you on a massive hand as lots of live players do dumb things here like call and then pass when they don't connect with the flop. If you had a massive hand you'd shove pre as he was committed too call you then but may not be if he whiffs the flop and gives up. You'd therefore be losing value playing a monster that way.
Listen to George but ignore anything Neil ever tells you, the massive fish.
As soon as I saw you reply I was waiting for a line along this line
You know I was only kidding mate.
I'd never want to offend my
best backgammon customer
mate Neil.
I still cant play that game either
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nirvana
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Posts: 7809
Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #12 on:
April 12, 2009, 08:57:59 AM »
Quote from: Autobetkev on April 07, 2009, 01:42:08 PM
an awful player
This is your problem in this hand - give a little love & respect to all players - it helps you make better decisions and avoid FPS
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sola virtus nobilitat
Porker_Star
Newbie
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Posts: 14
Re: Blind on Blind
«
Reply #13 on:
April 12, 2009, 08:15:25 PM »
Not shoving pre is meh.
I don't mind the stop n' go if out of position.
If you figure his shoving range on that flop crushes ou why do you now want to get your chips in when you presume your a dog. Surely you want to get your chips in when there is still a chance that your opponent is going to pass?
Bad players can also make passes.
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