valoooo

[ACE2M]

smash the under....

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/2234032/sp/Total-Premier-League-goals-in-the-2011+12-season.html

shame you'll have to wait for nealry a year to get paid.

[Jamier-Host]

Why?

[gatso]

Why?

line is exactly the number scored last season which was the highest for at least 6 years, maybe longer so guess 10/11 is ok value but no idea why you'd want to tie money up in it for 9 months

[ACE2M]

Why?

the highest goal numbers ever scored was last year and they have gone with that line. a stange thing to do.

[outragous76]

Im no football expert, but there are some very poor teams this year, I can see some regular goal fests occurring!

Probably the season with the largest ever quality gap?

[Jamier-Host]

Have you got the goals data?  If it was the highest last year has it been on an upwards trend?

[ACE2M]

Have you got the goals data?  If it was the highest last year has it been on an upwards trend?

http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2011/05/22/survival-sundays-32-goals-makes-for-record-premier-league-tally-220501/

[redarmi]

There isn't a discernible trend year on year.  It was only a couple of years ago that they were very low especially early in the season.  Last year Blackpool were a massive outlier in terms of goals scored and conceded and the fact that they aren't in the league anymore suggests the bet probably is value but there does tend to be microtrends in goalscoring in this league down to fashionable managers.  The downturn in goals a couple of years ago came in the wake of Mourinho's successful teams that seemed to win every game 1-0 or 2-0 and there was a massive focus on defence and possession.  i think we may see similar trends in that promoted teams will take a leaf out of Holloways book and look to enjoy themselves a bit more.  Pretty certain the bet is value but not for me because of previous points about time value of money etc.  great bet if you could get it on credit though

[DungBeetle]

The big difference trend wise is that teams no longer play for draws.

Remember Middlesboro under McLaren playing 4-5-1 against Aston Villa who also went 4-5-1.   (and negative 451 as well).

Remember Boro (again) drawing 0-0 at home to Liverpool and getting a corner late on and keeping the ball in the corner.

Managers have realised that beating someone and then getting the odd pasting is a much better way to go.

I'd expect the Premier to be goal laden again this year.

[kukushkin88]

The big difference trend wise is that teams no longer play for draws.

Remember Middlesboro under McLaren playing 4-5-1 against Aston Villa who also went 4-5-1.   (and negative 451 as well).

Remember Boro (again) drawing 0-0 at home to Liverpool and getting a corner late on and keeping the ball in the corner.

Managers have realised that beating someone and then getting the odd pasting is a much better way to go.

I'd expect the Premier to be goal laden again this year.

Agree with this but the promoted sides are going to be relatively solid at the back, imo there won´t be another Blackpool.